The Washington Commanders (3-10) and New York Giants (2-11) will face off in Week 15 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey. The game will broadcast live on FOX.
The Giants are 2.5-point favorites over the Commanders on the spread (Giants -2.5), with the over/under set at 46.5 total points. New York is a -150 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Washington is +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Commanders vs Giants predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday, December 14.
Commanders vs Giants Prediction, Picks
- Commanders vs Giants pick: Commanders +2.5 (-105)
My Giants vs. Commanders best bet is on Washington to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Commanders vs Giants Odds for NFL Week 15
| Commanders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Giants Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Washington Commanders vs New York Giants NFL Preview
Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels has been ruled out for this game, which isn't necessarily a bad thing for Washington as there’s an argument to be made that backup Marcus Mariota has actually been better this year.
By EPA per dropback, Mariota ranks higher, with a 0.029 mark to Daniels’ 0.017. In terms of success rate, Mariota’s at 50.5% to Daniels’ 48.4%. In yards per attempt, Mariota also has the edge 7.2 to 6.9.
Mariota throws the ball down the field, he's dealt with the blitz better, and he's performed better under pressure. Daniels has been miserable this year, while Mariota has been somewhat a breath of fresh air.
In addition, two of the Commanders’ top receivers are back in Terry McLaurin and Noah Brown. They lost tight end Zach Ertz, but they’re deep at that position. Backup John Bates is really good blocker, and especially with McLaurin and Brown back, they don't need Ertz as a pass-catcher as much in this spot.
This Giants defense remains bad against the run. Notable, because Commanders running back Chris Rodriguez has been very efficient and is starting to roll a little bit. Certain game scripts have prevented Washington from unlocking his full potential, but this is a good spot for him.
The Giants fired defensive coordinator Shane Bowen so they could be trending up coming off the bye week, but sitting at 29th in DVOA, they're one of only five defenses worse than Washington’s.
Washington has just been in so many negative game scripts. The Commanders haven't covered often outside of that Denver game. But based on their expected scores, they’ve been pretty unlucky. They should have been a lot closer in some of those games.
The Giants have just gone into pure run-mode, though Jaxson Dart might not rush the ball as much with his team out of playoff contention.
Running the ball with Dart is one of their best weapons; I'm not sure how much the Giants are going to be willing to utilize that weapon down the stretch given the hits and injuries he's sustained already this season.
Commanders vs Giants Betting Predictions, Analysis
This is a spot that we always love: an underdog coming off a shutout. These teams are 62% against the spread (ATS) since 2003 (48-29-2), covering by an average of 2+ points per game for a 20% ROI.
Then, you look at teams on the road in this spot, and they are even better at 64% ATS, covering by 3+ points per game.
Looking at the Giants, home teams coming off a bye week with a divisional matchup tend to be overrated. They've been about 40% ATS over the last decade or so.
I like the spot for the Commanders, who are probably still the better team. Washington used to be a team that would struggle against the Giants, but the Commanders have now covered the spread in their last three matchups against New York.
I like the adjustments Dan Quinn made defensively, and while it's still not a good defense, the Commanders should be able to get the job done against the Giants.
Commanders vs Giants Best Bet
- Commanders +2.5 (-105)
Commanders vs Giants Betting Trends
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