The Los Angeles Chargers (9-4) and Kansas City Chiefs (6-7) will meet in Week 15 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Chiefs are 6-point favorites over the Chargers on the spread (Chiefs -6), with the over/under set at 41.5 total points. Kansas City is a -290 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Los Angeles is +235 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Chargers vs Chiefs predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday, December 14.
Chargers vs Chiefs Prediction, Picks
- Chargers vs Chiefs pick: Chiefs -5.5 (-115)
My Chiefs vs. Chargers best bet is on Kansas City to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Chargers vs Chiefs Odds for NFL Week 15
| Chargers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +235 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -290 |
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs NFL Preview
Everyone has been betting on the Chiefs over the last month or so, and they have done nothing but disappoint, losing four of their last five games.
I've avoided the desperation Chiefs angles for the most part; I thought they were overvalued in most spots, but this number finally feels reasonable.
The Chiefs closed higher than this line against the Texans, who are a couple of points better than the Chargers right now.
Meanwhile, Los Angeles is on short rest after a Monday Night Football game, plus travel, heading into what will feel like 10 degrees for an indoor team, which is not ideal for Justin Herbert’s broken left hand.
The Chargers also appear incapable of running a functional offense with the current state of their offensive line. They allowed a 70% (!) pressure rate to the Eagles, and Herbert was sacked seven times as a result.
That was against an Eagles defense that doesn’t generate as much pressure as Kansas City, and Philly didn’t even have Jalen Carter in that game.
Here’s what the Chargers offense has done on the road since the offensive line issues began:
- Lost to the Giants
- Barely beat the Dolphins
- Destroyed by the Jaguars
- Barely beat the Titans
This Chargers offense is not built to function in a hostile environment against a defense that can pressure at a top-five rate.
Kansas City has also played a significantly tougher schedule. The Chiefs are 35 net points better than the Chargers, but have been extremely unlucky in one-score games compared to last season.
The matchup also favors the Chiefs.
The Chargers play the highest rate of zone in the NFL, and even with the inconsistencies of this year’s Chiefs offense, Patrick Mahomes shreds zone.
The Chiefs’ receivers struggle to separate against man, but versus zone they have a 55% success rate (compared to 45% against man); their EPA per play is also 74% higher versus zone.
Kansas City has some offensive line injuries, but Trey Smith practiced this week, a positive sign. Esa Pole also looked solid if they need him.
Plus, this is the Chargers defense — is not the Texans'. L.A. ranks 24th in pressure rate and won’t generate much heat.
I trust Mahomes to move the ball, and I trust the Chiefs defense to get pressure and collapse this Chargers offense.
The Chargers just faced a defunct Eagles offense without Lane Johnson and without Carter, forced five turnovers, and still needed a goal-line stop in overtime to win at home. They are not a very good team right now, or at least, not nearly as good as their 9-4 record may indicate.
Chargers vs Chiefs Betting Predictions, Analysis
The Chiefs have been right on the edge of breaking out. They should already have seven or eight wins.
This feels like a “take out your frustration” spot, with the Chiefs seeking revenge after falling to the Chargers by a score of 27-21 back in Week 1.
I think the Chiefs can win this game by 14+ points.
Chargers vs Chiefs Best Bet
- Chiefs -5.5 (-115)
Chargers vs Chiefs Betting Trends
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