We have you covered with a total of nine NFL player prop picks for Sunday of Week 15.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for almost all of Sunday's big games, starting with Bill vs Patriots, Ravens vs Bengals among others, at 1:00 p.m. ET. Then, we have picks for later in the day for Lions vs Rams and Packers vs Broncos. We also have bets for Raiders vs Eagles, Browns vs Bears, and more.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for Week 15 of the NFL season on December 14.
NFL Player Props Week 15
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Bills vs. Patriots
Drake Maye Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)
By Chris Prince
Drake Maye has gone over this number in six straight games and eight of his last nine games.
He's dipped under this number in only three games this entire season, and he threw for 273 yards in the first meeting between these teams.
Buffalo has definitely been great when it comes to limiting passing yards (2nd-fewest), and while I respect the Bills' pass defense, this game features a lofty 49.5-point total and a spread around -1.5.
I'm expecting some fireworks, and I believe Maye smashes this number, which puts ladders and alternates in play as well.
Pick: Drake Maye Over 233.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Ravens vs. Bengals
Isaiah Likely Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Isaiah Likely has put together a strong two-week stretch, racking up 120 yards on nine catches and 12 targets. Importantly, he's out-targeted and outgained Mark Andrews during that span.
The two tight ends are priced similarly, but Likely has been more productive lately.
Likely's solid run began in this same matchup in Week 13, when he torched the Bengals for 95 yards on five catches.
The Bengals continue to be an incredible matchup for tight ends, allowing the most targets, catches, and yards per game to the position.
Specifically on the yardage front, the Bengals have allowed 25 more yards per game to tight ends than the next-closest team (Seahawks).
Andrews is running more routes than Likely but has been less productive on a per-route and per-target basis.
Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid posted big games against this defense last week, so both Ravens TEs could certainly get there.
Pick: Isaiah Likely Over 37.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Raiders vs. Eagles
Brock Bowers Under 54.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
By Brit Devine
Only two TEs have topped this number against the Eagles all season, which makes sense, as the Eagles have allowed a league-low 428 yards to TEs. This is largely due to having two of the best coverage LBs in the game.
It's going to be cold with some wind in Philadelphia on Sunday. Backup QB Kenny Pickett will be under center for a Raiders 'team that is falling apart.
Brock Bowers had just 46 yards last week against a tough Broncos defense that is actually weak against the TE position on the season.
The Eagles should make Bowers the focal point on defense and be able to smother his chances of going over this number.
Pick: Brock Bowers Under 54.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
Commanders vs. Giants
Terry McLaurin Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Terry McLaurin's underlying metrics have been tremendous in the three games he's played with Marcus Mariota.
The wideout has posted a 37% target per route run rate and 3.8 yards per route run with Mariota. McLaurin also leads the team in target share in Mariota's starts (just 0.1% ahead of Zach Ertz, who is done for the season with a knee injury).
The Giants have allowed the fourth-most receiving yards per game on the fifth-most receptions per game.
New York plays man coverage at the third-highest rate. McLaurin easily leads the Commanders in target share vs. man this season.
Pick: Terry McLaurin Over 57.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Jets vs. Jaguars
Trevor Lawrence Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
By Charlie Wright
Since their Week 8 bye, the Jaguars have the fourth-lowest neutral pass rate (53.8%), and they've won five of those six games.
Even with the benefit of two overtime games, Trevor Lawrence has averaged 27.7 attempts per game in that stretch. The Jaguars have blown out multiple opponents recently, which has affected Lawrence's passing volume.
The Jaguars' pass rate has fallen to 47.8% when leading by 7+ points in this span. It's a solid sample of 178 snaps, which is the third-most over the past six weeks.
The Jaguars are favored by nearly two touchdowns at home against a Jets team starting their third-string quarterback.
It's hard to imagine the Jets pushing them enough to force an uptick in Lawrence's pass attempts.
Pick: Trevor Lawrence Under 30.5 Pass Attempts (-110)
Browns vs. Bears
Quinshon Judkins Under 72.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Charlie Wright
Quinshon Judkins came out of the gates fast to start the season, averaging 4.8 yards per carry over his first four games. That number has fallen to 3.2 over the past eight games.
There have been some favorable matchups in the mix too, including the Dolphins, Jets, Raiders, and Titans.
However, Judkins turned 14 carries into just 26 yards last week against Tennessee.
The Bears have struggled against the run at times this season, but they've been much better with linebacker T.J. Edwards available. Edwards returned last week after an extended absence.
The Bears limited Green Bay's running backs to a mediocre 4.2 yards per carry in that game.
Pick: Quinshon Judkins Under 72.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Lions vs. Rams
Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+125)
These odds are a bit too low for St. Brown considering how good he's been this season.
St. Brown ranks second in the NFL in red-zone targets (20) and receiving TDs (9) this season.
The Rams are a tough defensive matchup, but with a 55-point total in this game, I don't see scoring being a problem for the Lions, and I fully expect this game to be a barn burner.
I have the true odds on St. Brown scoring around +100.
Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown Anytime TD (+125)
Packers vs. Broncos
Romeo Doubs Under 2.5 Receptions (+140)
By Charlie Wright
Romeo Doubs airballed in Week 14, failing to catch both of his targets.
Jayden Reed finally returned and tied for the team lead in targets with Christian Watson and Luke Musgrave.
Doubs seemed to slip back into the sacrificial X-receiver role against Chicago. He was second on the team in routes, but he only saw extreme downfield targets, with an average depth of target (aDOT) of 31.5 yards.
With Reed available in Week 1, Doubs had an aDOT of 21.3 yards. He reeled in two of four targets for 68 yards.
Doubs might spike a few big plays, but it'll be tough for him to rack up catches in this role, particularly against a tough Denver secondary.
Pick: Romeo Doubs Under 2.5 Receptions (+140)
Panthers vs. Saints
Bryce Young Under 29.5 Pass Attempts (-105)
By Charlie Wright
The Panthers are 31st in neutral pass rate; they're dead last since Week 3.
Bryce Young spiked with an insane 448-yard game on 45 attempts in an overtime win over Atlanta in Week 11. However, it was the only time in the past 10 games he'd gone above 30 pass attempts. He's topped 200 passing yards in just two games in that stretch.
New Orleans has seen the lowest opponent pass rate in the league. I'm expecting Carolina to lean on the running game.
