Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 15 on Sunday, December 14.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 15 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 15.
NFL Week 15 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Raiders vs. Eagles
It’s been a disaster this year with Geno Smith at quarterback for the Raiders, and now he’s injured. So, we’ll see Kenny Pickett get the start, which means Las Vegas may lean heavily on the run early to minimize mistakes.
I know there’s upside with TE Brock Bowers or even WR Tre Tucker at +500, but I think this is a game where RB Ashton Jeanty needs to have 20+ touches somehow.
The Eagles run defense has been brutal for the last three games, with four rushing TDs and five TDs allowed overall to RBs in that span. For some teams, that’s pretty good, but for the Eagles without DT Jalen Carter, that’s a tough ask.
Jeanty has scored eight TDs this year (four rushing, four receiving) and has 24 targets over his last four games.
With the way the Eagles have struggled containing the run and rank 29th in defensive DVOA against pass-catching backs, I’m gonna take my chances with Jeanty and also sprinkle QB Kenny Pickett at +1700.
When facing a zone defense like the Raiders (top-three rate in NFL), you’d normally want to avoid the Eagles passing game because they’ll run the ball the entire game.
However, this isn’t the case this season, and now QB Jalen Hurts is being pressured to throw, and if that’s the case, I’ll go with his top option in AJ Brown this week.
After an embarrassing loss to the Chargers where he threw four interceptions, the one encouraging part was Brown still saw 13 targets against a zone-heavy defense and was the only Eagle to see an end zone target in the loss.
Usually, you want to take Brown against man defenses given how he’s torched them in his career, but now we’re seeing a much higher target rate for him against zone.
If you want to take TE Dallas Goedert, I totally get it because he was so close to scoring last week, but it’s Brown who continues to be the ultimate squeaky wheel with 46 targets and three TDs over the last four games.
Verdict: Ashton Jeanty +185 | AJ Brown +160 | Sprinkle on Kenny Pickett +1800
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Cardinals vs. Texans
I know the Texans defense is good and a tough matchup for pass-catchers, but you know who else is a tough matchup? Cardinals TE Trey McBride.
McBride has emerged as a lethal TD threat for the Cardinals with Jacoby Brissett at QB, as McBride has seven of his eight TDs with Brissett under center.
Now, McBride has only scored once in the last three games, as defenses continue to key in on him, but with how much the Cardinals force-feed McBride in the red zone, I can’t overlook him at +175.
Texans' rookie WR Jayden Higgins continues to impress me in this offense.
He may be a bit streaky with this TD rate, with four scores in 13 games, but his role in the offense has continued to rise and has the same targets-per-route-run rate as WR1 Nico Collins in that span.
Higgins is the legit WR2 in Houston's offense now, and the Cardinals pass defense has been abysmal over the last month, with 10 passing TDs allowed over the last four games.
If you wanted to take a flier on WR Xavier Hutchinson at +750, that would be ok too, as I had his odds expected closer to +500 since he has consistent snap and route run rates, but I’ll go with Higgins in this matchup.
Verdict: Trey McBride +175 | Jayden Higgins +350
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Jets vs. Jaguars
It’s pretty grim these days for the Jets offense, as they’re now likely in a spot where they have to play third-string QB Brady Cook.
Cook should still be better this week with some first-string reps in practice, but if you’re taking a Jet to score this week, you may need to thread the needle, as you might only see two TDs max in this game.
That said, I’m going back to Adonai Mitchell at +400. He still ran the second-most routes in Week 14 when Tyrod Taylor went down and led the team with two red-zone targets.
This could be an ugly game, and with the Jaguars playing mostly zone with two-high safety, that shapes up better for Mitchell.
In four games since coming to the Jets, Mitchell leads the team in targets-per-route-run along with four end zone targets.
As long as he can hang onto the ball and Cook doesn’t get killed by the Jaguars pass-rush, then we go with the WR with the highest upside, especially at these odds.
Since the Sauce Gardner/Quinnen Williams trades, the Jets defense has shifted a bit in their approach.
For the first 10 weeks of the season, the Jets defense ranked top-five in man coverage rate with a rotation between single and two-high safety. But in the last four games, they’ve gone with a higher rate of zone and more of an emphasis of two-high safety.
While I do think the Jaguars will throw the ball, the Jets run defense has been so pathetic (nine rushing TDs in last four games), that we might see one Jaguars receiving TD total.
So, if you picking any of them, it’s gotta be TE Brenton Strange.
Strange is playing the most snaps and running the most routes for the Jaguars, while seeing the highest target share when facing zone and two-high safety.
Coupled with the Jets ranking 31st in defensive DVOA against TEs with seven TDs allowed to the position, Strange has decent upside if the Jaguars throw.
Verdict: Adonai Mitchell +400 | Brenton Strange +250
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Browns vs. Bears
This should be a tough matchup for the Bears offense and not a great game for touchdowns overall.
With Bears WR Rome Odunze dealing with a foot injury, the WR room is a bit in flux, and while my initial lean was WR Luther Burden at +270, his TD odds are a bit low given how hard the matchup is and the pending cold weather in Chicago.
The Browns are also missing top CB Denzel Ward. So, let’s spin the WR wheel and land on WR Olamide Zacchaeus again at +500.
He caught a TD last week with Odunze out and has been pretty effective against man coverage and single-high safety, which the Browns play both at top-three rates.
However, if Odunze does play, that’s likely going to cut into Olamide’s playing time. So, if Odunze plays, pivot to TE Colston Loveland at +280 since he’s also been heating up and has decent receiver metrics against man and single-high.
I know we saw some inspired play by the Browns offense last week against the Titans, but I think it could be an awful day for QB Shedeur Sanders.
The Bears blitz at a top-seven rate, and while Sanders has only been blitzed on 22% of dropbacks, he’s only managed 35% completions on those dropbacks, and that ranks last of all quarterbacks with at least 20 pass attempts against the blitz.
It’s obviously a small sample, but he’s going to have to make quick throws to a pass-catcher with a shorter aDOT, hand off to RB Quinshon Judkins, or take a sack.
In this instance, I’m going to just take TE Harold Fannin and back away slowly.
Fannin has been the top target in this offense, no matter who is at QB, and TE David Njoku is out with a knee injury, clearing the way for Fannin to see a bigger role.
Fannin has scored in two of three games with Sanders as the starter, including two straight entering this week, while leading the team in targets-per-route-run and has two end zone targets.
Verdict: Olamide Zacchaeus +500 (If Odunze is out) | Colston Loveland +280 (If Odunze is active) | Harold Fannin +260
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Bills vs. Patriots
I know we love the shiny new toy in Patriots RB Treyveon Henderson, but this game REEKS of a Rhamondre Stevenson game.
Stevenson has been a bit all over the place this season with his turnovers and low success rate that has led him being banished for short stints, but head coach Mike Vrabel has consistently shown he wants Stevenson in the mix for carries.
Both Patriots running backs are averaging just over 10 carries per game and are also tied with 22 red-zone carries.
The important part to note is inside the five-yard line, it’s been Stevenson getting the heavier workload with eight carries in that range compared to Henderson’s three.
They have nearly identical stats but Stevenson has reached these milestones in three less games compared to Henderson.
I get Henderson has more explosive upside against a Bills defense that has allowed the most rushing TDs in the NFL, but Stevenson profiles as the better back against this type of defense, and we’re getting over double the odds for the anytime TD.
I’ve wrestled with this one for a bit because, on one hand, we’ve seen this movie before; a Bills game with big stakes and QB Josh Allen completely taking all the big carries near the goal line for two touchdowns.
At +650, I wouldn’t talk you off it because there’s precedent, but what if we could bet on a guy to score who’s almost near that price in WR Gabe Davis at +450?
It’s been a low-key reunion for Davis after playing his first four years with Buffalo, and in the four games since coming back, he’s quickly found a role again.
Davis is running the third-most routes on the team, while seeing three red-zone targets and was a consistent TD threat in his time with Buffalo with six or more TDs in each of his four seasons as a member of the Bills.
Since Davis and Allen clearly still have chemistry, I’ll bank on Davis to find the end zone this week at +400 or better.
Verdict: Rhamondre Stevenson +250 | Gabe Davis +450
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Ravens vs. Bengals
Betting TD scorers against the Bengals has been quite easy if you just targeted tight ends every week.
The Bengals have been hemorrhaging TDs to TEs this season with 15 TDs allowed to the position, surrendering at least one in six of the last seven games, with the lone miss coming in a game in which Ravens TE Isaiah Likely fumbled into the end zone.
That’s now two weeks in a row where Likely has had TD drama with the fumble against Cincy and the strip against the Steelers last week.
Still, I think the positive takeaway is he’s being targeted for scoring, as he technically should have three TDs over the last two games, and since Jackson came back in Week 9, he leads the team in targets-per-route-run with Lamar in the lineup.
The Bengals defense, especially in their last matchup with the Ravens two weeks ago, have shifted their defense to a more man coverage approach with a top-three rate of single-high safety.
This is also good for Likely since he has led the Ravens in TPRR against man defenses over the last five games to go with three end zone targets.
We’ve backed WR Tee Higgins when we can get decent odds for Bengals TD scorers, but if he’s out this week, I’m pivoting to his replacement in Mitchell Tinsley at +400.
The last time Ja’Marr Chase missed a game, Tinsley hauled in another spectacular catch for his second TD of the season. I mention that because Tinsley’s role for the Bengals is solidified on the outside if either Chase or Higgins are inactive.
Tinsley will likely be the only Bengals WR to line up on the outside with WR1 Ja’Marr Chase, as WR3 Andrei Iosivas typically lines up in the slot at a 70% rate.
Given how explosive the Bengals pass game is with Joe Burrow and how their games tend to turn into shootouts, I’m of the opinion that no Bengals' starter should be higher than +300. So, I’ll take my chances with Tinsley at +400.
Verdict: Isaiah Likely +260 | Mitchell Tinsley +400
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Chargers vs. Chiefs
I’m so out on the Chiefs offense. The only consistent source for touchdowns this season is either WR Rashee Rice or RB Kareem Hunt.
While I do like Rice, he still does have competition for targets in the red zone with TE Travis Kelce, WR Xavier Worthy, or whichever random WR decides to make a play (Hollywood Brown, JuJu Smith-Schuster).
The difference for Hunt is that he truly is the goal line back for the Chiefs and has consistently been the RB to get the carries in scoring range over RB Isiah Pacheco.
Hunt ranks in the top-10 in the NFL in carries inside the 10-yard line and 5-yard line, while scoring in five of the last six games.
It’s not pretty, and you might be able to sniff out some value elsewhere in someone like TE Noah Gray (+1100) or WR Hollywood Brown (+750), but it’s Hunt or pass for me until the Chiefs can correct course on offense.
I’ve now been wrong on Chargers TD scorers in four of the last five games, and I think a big part of that was me underestimating the loss of LT Joe Alt.
Now, the Chargers are coming off an impressive win over the Eagles, but this week against KC, it likely won't be a repeat matchup from Week 1 where the Chargers were having huge success throwing the ball.
This game is going to be in a cold environment like Kansas City. So, I want wide receivers used to the conditions and can make tough catches in the red zone.
If you want to bet on WR Ladd McConkey, he's a decent value at +260, but I’m going to keep riding with the veteran WR Keenan Allen in this spot.
The Chiefs play two-high safety at the second-highest rate in the NFL, and that’s good for Keenan since he leads the team in targets-per-route-run against two-high.
With the Chargers passing offense still out of sorts over the last few games, I’d rather just take the risk on Allen at +525.
Verdict: Kareem Hunt +125 | Keenan Allen +525
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Commanders vs. Giants
Since CB Marshon Lattimore went down in Week 9, the Commanders have shifted their defensive approach.
In those four games, the Commanders rank top-five in zone rate, while playing the highest rate of two-high safety. This scenario would lineup better for WR Wan’Dale Robinson, but I'm going to go back to my Canadian brethren in TE Theo Johnson.
He’s scored five TDs this season and leads the team with seven end zone targets. He’s also been the favorite target of QB Jaxson Dart, as Johnson has scored all five of his TDs with Dart starting.
With the Commanders allowing three TDs to TEs last week and nine on the season, I think we keep riding with Theo.
On the flip side, the Giants just keep rolling with their defensive scheme, playing man coverage at top-three rate with the seventh-highest rate of single-high safety.
Even since Brian Daboll was fired, they’ve increased the frequency of single-high safety looks at a 60% rate over the last six games. If they keep rolling with this defense, then we either take WR Terry McLaurin (+190) or QB Marcus Mariota at +325.
I think both are solid options since McLaurin is a man-coverage beater and still leads the Commanders in TPRR against both coverages.
Still, I think the way to go this week is with Mariota.
The man coverage and single-high safety looks are great for QB scrambles, and when he faced a similar defense in his last start against the Broncos, he had 10 carries with two in the red zone.
The difference is the Broncos are a great run defense, ranking third in defensive DVOA against the run, while the Giants rank last with 17 rushing TDs allowed.
Verdict: Marcus Mariota +320 | Theo Johnson +250
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Colts vs. Seahawks
I might be off the deep end here, but am I crazy to like some of the Colts pass-catchers in this one?
QB Philip Rivers getting signed and activated at 44-years-old wasn’t on my bingo card for this year, but with QB Daniel Jones out, the odds for most Colts players to score a TD are showing value for me.
Even if Rivers gets hurt early or Riley Leonard just stinks, I can’t pass on the Colts altogether this week.
The two Colts I’m showing the most value on is TE Tyler Warren at +450 and WR Michael Pittman at +550.
Look, I get the Seahawks defense is really good, but a WR1 at +550 and a TE1 at +450 is too good to pass up in a matchup against a Seahawks defense that ranks 26th in defensive DVOA against TEs.
Even if I don’t love the matchup and the quarterback is older than I am, I have to bet them at these odds given they'll both play over 90% of snaps, run the most routes, and have both been the most effective against zone defenses, which the Seahawks play at a top-five rate.
We took Seahawks WR Rashid Shaheed last week against the Falcons because of the familiarity, and while it worked out, it wasn’t because of his target rate.
Shaheed scored an electric kick return TD and still saw the second-most targets of an Seahawk besides WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
I think the Colts and CB Charvarius Ward are going to sell out hard to stop JSN (easier said than done) and make QB Sam Darnold beat them elsewhere. So, if that happens, it’s either Shaheed or TE AJ Barner likely to get the secondary looks.
Of the two, I’d side with Barner one last time because he continues to get favorable matchups.
The Colts rank 25th in defensive DVOA against TEs and are bottom-five in targets, catches, and yards to the position with five TDs allowed.
Barner almost scored last week against the Falcons and has upside as a short-range ball-carrier too.
Verdict: Michael Pittman +550 | Tyler Warren +400 | AJ Barner +210
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Packers vs. Broncos
If I’m betting on a Broncos player this week against the Packers, I want short-range targets that excel versus zone defense.
The Packers defense is one of the best at limiting explosive plays for both the pass and the run. So, this has "long-shot Broncos TE" to score written all over it.
Now, you can take TE Evan Engram here, but I think we go super long shot with TE/FB Nate Adkins, who’s expected back this week after missing five games.
Adkins could be on the field a lot this week to help stave off the Packers pass-rush, and because Green Bay plays zone at a top-three rate, that’s good for Adkins, who has seen the majority of his targets against zone coverages.
When he’s on the field, the Broncos tend to target him, and if the Packers have any weakness in the pass game, it's tight ends with five TDs allowed to the position.
When it comes to the Broncos, trying to bet on the guy you “think” will score is a brutal proposition with the way head coach Sean Payton features different players with his game plans from week to week.
WR Jayden Reed caught my eye in Week 14 after coming back from injury. His snap percentage can usually be a bit wonky if the Packers run more 12-personnel, but with him back in the fold, I like his odds to score this week at +450.
In his first game back, Reed ran the third-most routes at 70% slot rate, which means he’ll likely avoid CB Patrick Surtain, who I expect to shadow WR Christian Watson.
Normally, Reed has feasted off zone defenses in his career, but it was encouraging to see that he led the team in targets-per-route-run last week against the Bears, which are also a heavy man-defense team.
Reed’s arrival also significantly reduced the roles of WR Dontayvion Wicks and Matthew Golden, as neither played more than 10 snaps.
With Reed's target rate and potential for rushing (two rush attempts in Week 14), I think there’s a lot of upside for him to score his second TD of the season.
Verdict: Jayden Reed +400 | Nate Adkins +1600
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Panthers vs. Saints
Taysom Hill Game Loading!
I know we just watched QB Tyler Shough scramble for two touchdowns last week, but that’s part of the reason to go back to Hill because the TD odds reverb has gone too far now the other way on Taysom.
Last week against the Bucs, Hill’s TD odds were around +300, and that makes sense because the Saints offense has looked pitiful, and the Buccaneers are much stronger against the run overall.
Now, the Saints are hosting the Panthers, who rank 27th in defensive DVOA against the run and have allowed 16 rushing TDs, which is bottom-five in the NFL.
While Hill hasn’t had as much success running this season, he still leads the team in red-zone carries despite missing four games.
I had expected odds for his Anytime TD closer to +275. So, this is a great spot at +400.
If you prefer to bet on a Saints pass-catcher, then you have to keep going back to WR DeVaughn Vele at +350.
Vele has been operating as the clear WR2 behind Chris Olave, while having another game in Week 14 where he had a 90% route participation, while also leading the team in receiving yards and targets.
I don’t expect a ton of scoring, but both Vele and Hill are showing value for me in this matchup
Another WR2 I’m going back to is Xavier Legette with the Panthers.
Legette has seen nine end zone targets this year with three receiving TDs, and if the Saints sell out to try and stop Tetairoa McMillan, Legette could see a target bump.
The Saints defense isn’t great stopping the pass. So, QB Bryce Young should have some success moving the ball. I’ll take a chance on Legette to get another score at +350.
Verdict: DeVaughn Vele +350 | Taysom Hill +400 | Xavier Legette +350
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Lions vs. Rams
Week 15 has plenty of great matchups on tap, but Lions–Rams might be the one where everyone has a touchdown bet locked in.
With a total of 55, it’s clear there will be points in this game, and with it featuring these two offenses, bettors need to expect that the top-eight options will likely be less than +200 to score.
Of that group, I’ll go with Lions WR Jameson Williams to score another TD. Jamo has been pretty streaky, but his production has kicked into high gear in the second half of the season.
Williams has scored six touchdowns this season with four scored over the last six games.
It’s clear that Dan Campbell and the Lions are making a point to target Jamo and let his explosiveness do the rest because in that span, he’s running the most routes on the team, while seeing a significant jump in his targets-per-route-run and his overall target rate.
He’s still likely the third option behind WR1 Amon-Ra St. Brown and RB1 Jahmyr Gibbs, but in a game where we could see 60+ points with Jared Goff playing indoors, Jamo is who we want.
We have to talk about TE Colby Parkinson. I was wrong. I said that this run will not sustain and he will fizzle out because he wasn’t a TD threat at all in his time in the NFL.
I didn’t expect him to become the dollar store version of George Kittle in the Rams offense, but here we are and now, he’s scored in four of the last five games.
It’s fairly absurd production, but with the Rams passing offense firing on all cylinders, a TE1 in this offense can’t be +200 or better to score a TD. Parksinson has also seen his routes-run-rate increase over the last three games when Tyler Higbee went down.
As long as WR Davante Adams or WR Puka Nacua don’t steal all the TDs, let’s bank on Parkinson.
Verdict: Jameson Williams +190 | Colby Parkinson +250
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Titans vs. 49ers
This has been my go-to guy for 49ers TD props almost every week he’s been active this season, and that’s WR Jauan Jennings.
Man coverage, zone coverage, it hasn’t really mattered for Jennings, as he continues to be an end zone threat for the Niners with four TD in his last five games.
Facing the Titans, who play a lot of zone coverage and two-high safety, Jennings either leads the team in targets-per-route-run or touchdowns against those types of coverages.
TE George Kittle has a decent matchup too, but with the way Jennings has been balling this season, I don’t think sportsbooks have caught up to his market yet, as I had expected odds at +150 or lower for this matchup. So, we'll take that every time at +200. And for what it’s worth, the opposing WR1 has scored in each of the last six games against the Titans defense.
For the Titans, I’m running it back with TE Gunnar Helm. I know he didn’t score last week, but it was a much tougher matchup against the Browns.
This week against the Niners, he could have a better matchup because the Niners rank 25th in defensive DVOA against the pass and have allowed 23 passing TDs this season; sixth-worst in the NFL.
When you realize that tight ends have scored eight times against the Niners this season, with five of those allowed over the last five games, it makes it more tempting to invest in the rookie TE at +500.
Verdict: Jauan Jennings +200 | Gunnar Helm +500
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