The Buffalo Bills (9-4) and New England Patriots (11-2) will meet in Week 15 of the NFL season on Sunday afternoon. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. ET from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
The Bills are 2-point favorites over the Patriots on the spread (Bills -2), with the over/under set at 49 total points. Buffalo is a -130 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while New England is +110 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bills vs Patriots predictions and my NFL picks for Sunday, December 14.
Bills vs Patriots Prediction, Picks
- Bills vs Patriots pick: Bills -1.5 (-115)
My Bills vs Patriots best bet is on Buffalo to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. However, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Bills vs Patriots Odds for NFL Week 15
| Bills Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2 -110 | 49 -110o / -110u | +110 |
Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots NFL Preview
The Bills to cover the spread is a play I like for several reasons.
First off, I'm going to war with Josh Allen leading the charge, who I just need to win the game.
If you're interested in trends: Allen is 30-14-2 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog or a favorite of less than a field goal. Only Tom Brady and Drew Brees have been more profitable in those situations.
Allen is also 18-8-2 ATS on the road, and 19-7 ATS when the spread is under three points in either direction — that’s 73%, so I just need Allen to win in a game that's supposed to be competitive. I'm taking him over pretty much anyone at the QB position right now.
You’re going to hear a lot about home teams coming off a bye this week — Patriots head coach Mike Vrabel is 6-0 against the spread after a bye.
I get it. There were particular circumstances for some of these games, so I don't put too much stock in that.
I do think home teams off a bye are overrated in the market in general. Over the past 10 years, they are 42% ATS and 40% in the division, where home-field advantage is about 50%.
It's cold, there's potential snow outdoors, and it’s an early window game.
The Bills are all used to all of those things. Drake Maye has had some issues with conditions in the past. If it snows or if there is any bad weather, Allen is as good as it gets; we saw that last week.
There's also some potential regression coming for the Patriots. They've been pretty lucky in several areas. New England is 14-of-18 on fourth down — best in the league, and they rank first in EPA per play on fourth down (1.7).
Meanwhile, the Patriots' opponents are 7-for-22 on fourth down — ranked 3rd in the league in that department.
The fourth-down swings in these games have been pretty drastic in favor of the Pats. They've also had 15 fumbles and lost only seven, while recovering 70% of their opponents’ fumbles.
Maye has been amazing. I'm in on him overall, but he's been a bit fortunate this season. He has 23 touchdowns and six interceptions. He has 22 big-time throws and 13 turnover-worthy plays.
Allen, for example, is 22-to-10 and 18-to-11, right in line with what you would think.
The Bills don't play a ton of single high and play a lot of zone. That's not ideal against Maye, who I think is going to move the ball here, but the Bills can bow up in the red zone, where the Patriots have lots of issues.
New England is 24th in red-zone touchdown percentage on offense, struggling to finish drives once the field narrows and you take away the threat of Maye’s deep ball.
The Bills, on the other hand, are pretty good at finishing off drives (ninth in the NFL), while the Patriots defense is dead last in red-zone touchdown percentage allowed.
Additionally, the Pats run defense, which was great early this season, now has some issues. Ever since they lost DE Milton Williams, they rank 31st in rush success rate allowed, which is critical against the Bills.
On offense, they might get Jared Wilson back as their guard, but he's been terrible. Rookie left tackle Will Campbell has been good. However, his backup Vederian Lowe is unplayable, and he'll be in there at left tackle due to Campbell’s injury.
The Bills can still get pressure. I do believe OT Spencer Brown will be back for Buffalo on the offensive line.
DE Joey Bosa practiced this week, and he is key in those pressure efforts. The Bills are generally trending upward health-wise.
Bills vs Patriots Betting Predictions, Analysis
In the first meeting of the season between these teams, the Bills had three turnovers and 11 penalties, and the Pariots won on a walk-off, 50-yard field goal.
The Pats have played the NFL's easiest schedule by far. Everyone knows this by now.
However, let’s take a look at the quarterbacks they beat besides Allen: Jaxson Dart, Bryce Young, Michael Penix Jr., Joe Flacco (without Ja’Marr Chase), Justin Fields, Baker Mayfield, Dylan Gabriel, Cam Ward, Spencer Rattler and Tua Tagovailoa.
Seven of their 10 wins have come against rookie quarterbacks or quarterbacks no longer starting.
We're at the peak of the market on the Patriots. They've won 10 straight and covered the spread in eight of those 10 games.
I'm going to trust Josh Allen to exact his revenge here and get the job done on the road.
Bills vs Patriots Best Bet
- Bills -1.5 (-115)
Bills vs Patriots Betting Trends
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