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Chargers Could Close as Trendiest Playoff Underdog On Record

Jan 06, 2019 9:27 AM EST
Credit:

Mark Konezny-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Melvin Gordon.

  • The Chargers (+3) currently have 75% of spread bets on them, which would break the record for trendiest underdog in playoff history.
  • The trendiest dog dating back to 2003 received 74% of bets, while the second trendiest received 68%.
  • Both of the top two trendy dogs covered, but playoff dogs with 60% of bets or more have gone just 6-7 against the spread.

The Ravens have been hot down the stretch — they had to be just to make the postseason. Their impressive run was perhaps highlighted by their win in Los Angeles against the Chargers, in fact.

However, the Ravens are getting hardly any support as a three-point home favorite on Sunday. Their support has actually been dropping as the week has gone on, making the Chargers one of the trendiest underdogs in playoff history.

Dating back to 2003, there has only been one playoff underdog with more than 70% of bets — the 49ers vs. the Seahawks in the divisional round of the 2013 season. They closed with 74% of bets, but were hardly even a dog. The line closed at a pick ’em, but the juice was in Seattle’s favor per Bet Labs.

The Chargers had been around 70% of bets for most of the week, but reached 75% of bets this morning. Typically, lopsided betting percentages drop as kick off approaches, but that hasn’t been the case for the Chargers thus far.

The trendiest true underdog in playoff history closed with 68% of bets. That was back in 2008 when the Giants were +7 in the divisional round against the Cowboys. They’d go on to win that game outright. They also won another game as a dog later in the postseason

Historically, dogs have covered at a 55.6% rate in the playoffs in general and 55.9% when getting the majority of spread bets. Though both of the two trendiest dogs on file have covered, dogs with at least 60% of bets have gone 6-7 against the spread.

In the regular season, dogs with 70% of bets or more have gone 36-33-2 ATS.

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