Colts-Eagles Betting Preview: Should You Pick Carson Wentz in His Return?

Sep 21, 2018 4:00 AM EDT

Betting odds: Indianapolis Colts at Philadelphia Eagles

  • Spread: Eagles -6.5
  • Over/Under: 47.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The Colts still aren’t getting love from bettors despite beating the Redskins as 6-point underdogs on the road last week.

Sixty-four percent of bettors are laying the points with the Eagles at the time of writing (see live data here), which isn’t all that unexpected with the return of Carson Wentz. PJ Walsh

Trends to know: Andrew Luck is 19-12-1 against the spread (ATS) as an underdog in the regular season, including 10-4 ATS as a dog of six or more points. John Ewing

Injury watch: Wentz (knee) will make his much-anticipated return on Sunday, but Alshon Jeffery (shoulder) — who isn’t expected to return quite yet — could be joined on the bench by running backs Darren Sproles (hamstring) and Jay Ajayi (back). Mike Wallace (ankle, Injured Reserve) is also out indefinitely.

The good news for the Eagles is that Wentz is expected to have all-world left tackle Jason Peters (quad).

The Colts offense didn’t suffer many notable injuries in their Week 2 win over the Redskins, yet tight end Jack Doyle (hip), running back Marlon Mack (foot, hamstring), No. 1 receiver T.Y. Hilton (quad), cornerback Quincy Wilson (concussion), defensive end Hassan Ridgeway (calf), defensive tackle Denico Autry (ankle) and left tackle Anthony Castonzo (hamstring) did not practice on Wednesday or Thursday.

Hilton said he’s “feeling good” and “should be fine.” Regardless, the Colts seem poised to be without multiple starters in Philadelphia.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Corey Clement was an asset in the receiving game last season, according to my Rushing Expectation methodology, which adjusts running back efficiency based on offensive line quality.

He had an overall receiving expectation score in the 95th-percentile on 26 targets, which is impressive considering how high of an expectation the Eagles offensive line provides.

This matchup sets up extremely well for Clement’s skill set, as the Colts have allowed the most receptions and second-most receiving yards to running backs through two weeks. Joe Holka

Bet to watch: Colts +7

This Eagles offense is in horrendous form, and Wentz isn’t going to magically solve all of their problems.

Not only is Ajayi out, but Philly is down to only four healthy receivers: Nelson Agholor, Kamar Aiken, Shelton Gibson and the recently signed Jordan Matthews.

I don’t think this group can exploit an extremely raw Indianapolis defensive backfield.

Expect some Wentz growing pains, especially since he doesn’t have any chemistry with this group.

The Colts offensive line should get mauled by one of the best defensive lines in football, but Luck is getting rid of the ball fast and utilizing the quick passing game to negate that deficiency.

He’s averaging a career low 5.9 yards per pass attempt (27th in the NFL) and it’s helping to cut down on his mistakes.

And don’t sleep on the Frank Reich familiarity factor: The Philly offense seems to miss its former offensive coordinator, who will really know how to attack the Eagles defense. Look for big days from the Colts tight ends.

This game should be closer than most think. Getting +7 will be valuable. At the time of writing, everything from +6.5 to a juiced-up +7.5 was available around the market.

If you can’t find +7 at your shop, I would wait. Public Eagles money should push it there. If it never does, I’d still lean Colts +6.5. Stuckey

Bet to watch: Colts +7

Luck has shown no signs of rust and seems to be picking up right where he left off before his shoulder injury. And the Colts defense, while not spectacular by any means, has been passable.

Everyone is high on the Eagles because of the return of Wentz, but much like a starting pitcher returning from the DL, this is a dicey prospect in his first game action.

Wentz needs to test that knee and get hit, and we need to see him at 100% before I back the Eagles laying a touchdown.

And as Stuckey mentioned, injuries to the Eagles’ receiving corps are also a factor. BlackJack Fletcher

 


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

James Lang-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Carson Wentz

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
GB
SEA
49.5
-2.5
48.5
-3
HOU
WAS
43
+3
42.5
+3
CIN
BAL
--
--
--
--
PIT
JAC
47.5
+6
47
+6
CAR
DET
50.5
+3
51
+4
DAL
ATL
47.5
-4.5
48.5
-3
TEN
IND
48
-3
48.5
-2
TB
NYG
52
PK
52
-1
OAK
ARI
41
-4
40.5
-5.5
DEN
LAC
47
-7.5
46.5
-7
PHI
NO
54.5
-9
56
-9
MIN
CHI
45.5
-2.5
45
-2.5
KC
LA
63.5
-1
63.5
-3.5