Colts-Jets Odds, Picks, Predictions: An Expert’s Guide To Betting Thursday Night Football Over/Under
Getty Images. Pictured: Jets RB Michael Carter, Colts RB Jonathan Taylor
- Colts-Jets odds have continued to fall in the final hours before Thursday Night Football kicks off.
- With the over/under now sitting between 45 and 45.5 points, find out why it's critical to lock in our expert's pick at the latter number.
|Time||8: 20 p.m. ET|
The Colts opened as 10.5-point favorites, where the line has remained parked all week. As of writing, 57% of bets are on the Jets while 77% of the money is on the Colts (per our NFL public betting data), so it appears that the public is leaning toward the Jets while the sharps are leaning toward the Colts.
Based on my projections, however, the value isn’t on the spread — it’s on the over/under.
Click the arrow to expand injury reports
Jets vs. Colts Injury Report
- QB Zach Wilson (knee): Out
- RB Tevin Coleman (hamstring): Out
- OL Laurent Duvernay-Tardif (non-injury): Out
- DL Bryce Huff (back): Out
- WR Corey Davis (hip): Doubtful
- OT George Fant (ankle): Questionable
- CB BoPete Keyes (hamstring): Out
- WR T.Y. Hilton (quad): Questionable
- CB Xavier Rhodes (calf): Questionable
- T/G Braden Smith (foot/thumb): Questionable
Jets vs. Colts Matchup
|Jets Offense||DVOA Rank||Colts Defense|
|Jets Defense||DVOA Rank||Colts Offense|
|Football Outsiders’ DVOA measures efficiency by comparing a team’s success on every play to the league average based on situation and opponent.|
Mike White Is Unlikely To Make Jets Offense Fly Again
Mike White had one of the more surprising performances of 2021 as he threw for 405 yards in a 34-31 upset win over the (then) 5-2 Bengals.
While he looked sharp, it’s worth noting that he leaned heavily on checkdowns, completing 14 passes for 166 yards to his running backs. As a result, White’s 4.1 average depth of target (aDot) was the second-lowest of Week 8, and 270 of his yards came after the catch. (For perspective, 128 yards after the catch was the average for QBs last week.)
Unfortunately, I’m expecting White to come back to Earth this week, and the Colts will be a tough matchup for him. They excel at limiting opposing running backs in the passing game, an effort led by two-time All-Pro linebacker Darius Leonard. In addition, they have yet to allow an opposing RB to top 35+ receiving yards in a game this season.
Colts Likely To Run Conservative Offense On Thursday Night Football
The Colts are coming off an emotional overtime loss to the Titans and will try to bounce back after the short week.
Carson Wentz made a handful of mistakes that cost the Colts last week’s game, so I’m expecting them to have a conservative, run-heavy game plan to put away the Jets. It should be easy considering the Colts have one of the NFL’s most talented running backs in Jonathan Taylor.
With Quenton Nelson and Braden Smith expected to return from injury, this will be only the second game all season that they’ll have their preferred starting five along the offensive line.
T.Y. Hilton will miss the game, meaning that the Jets will be able to focus extra resources on slowing down wide receiver Michael Pittman.
This matchup sets up perfectly for the under.
The Colts defense is designed to slow down a “checkdown” passer like White. And at the same time, they should be able to lean on their running game with their healthy offensive line, elite RB in Taylor and limit the chances of Wentz making costly mistakes.
I’m projecting this total closer to 44.5 and would bet the under down to 45.5 points.
Pick: Under 46 | Bet to: 45.5
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