Kyle Trask NFL Draft Profile, Props To Bet & Dynasty Analysis
Getty Images. Pictured: Florida Gators star quarterback Kyle Trask.
Kyle Trask Draft Profile
Kyle Trask Draft Props
Entering Day 2 of the draft, the over/under for Trask is between 69.5 and 70.5.
Here are the best lines I’ve find for both sides.
- Over 69.5: -115 at William Hill
- Under 70.5: -110 at FanDuel
His expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks puts him on the borderline of Rounds 2-3, which is right in line with his over/under …
… but he’s No. 82 in my top 100 big board.
And I’m perhaps even a little too high on him, given that he ranks No. 91 on both of the consensus big boards at The Athletic and NFL Mock Draft Database.
Relative to where they are mocked, quarterbacks tend to fall in the draft, and that’s what I’m betting on here.
Full disclosure: I have a middle position on Trask between 64.5 and 77.5. I bet it a couple of weeks ago. I still like the over at 69.5.
At FanDuel, you can also bet on Kyle Trask vs. Kellen Mond in a head-to-head matchup.
- Kyle Trask: -172
- Kellen Mond: +134
In my top 100, I do have Trask ahead of Mond (82 vs. 100), but their draft stock is in the same general range. I’d stay away. I don’t think there’s much that separate Trask from Mond. In fact, I had to take a side on this, I’d likely back Mond. I arbitraged this prop last week by taking positions at different books with Trask at +112 and Mond +190.
At DraftKings and PointsBet you can bet on the round in which Trask will be selected.
- Round 2: +175, Both
- Round 3: +125, Both
- Round 4: +225, PointsBet
- Round 5: +700, Both
- Round 6: +1600, Both
- Round 7: +3300, Both
At these odds, I would not bet it — although if you really want to do so, then I think focusing on Rounds 3-4 is best.
You can bet on Trask to be the next quarterback selected at +210 at FanDuel.
That one actually intrigues me. In my top 100 as well as the consensus big boards at The Athletic and NFL Mock Draft Database, Trask is ranked higher than Davis Mills (-160) and Mond (+300).
At significant plus money, I’m fine with betting that the big board leader is the next quarterback drafted even though Mills has more hype.
Pick: Over 69.5, -115; 1.15 units
Bet Now: William Hill
Pick: Trask Next QB Drafted, +210; 1 unit
Bet Now: FanDuel
Dynasty Fantasy Analysis
Let’s start with what Trask isn’t: He isn’t a runner. At all. Everyday people with the cares of the world weighing them down walk faster than he runs.
To call him a statue in the pocket is to insult sculptures and sculptors everywhere.
He has zero rushing ability, as evidenced by his career average of 4.0 yards per attempt (excluding sacks, per 2021 Sports Info Solutions Football Rookie Handbook). And he takes a lot of sacks (41 in 24 games over the past two years) because of his inability to avoid pressure.
In their prospect profile, Pro Football Focus pulls no punches about Trask: “No scrambling or playmaking at all.” It wasn’t necessary for PFF to add the emphatic “at all” — but it’s a nice touch.
But if you can get over the fact that Trask is a nonentity as a runner — and as long as he has workable draft capital (in the top 100, maybe?) — then he might be intriguing because he’s a good passer.
In fact, he looks so good throwing the ball that even though he was a backup in high school he was able to earn a three-star recruitment grade and get a scholarship offer from Florida.
Trask did almost nothing his first three years in college.
- 2016: Redshirt
- 2017: Literally no playing time with a foot injury
- 2018 (4 games): Backup with 22-162-1 passing
But as a redshirt junior he filled in for injured starter Feleipe Franks, and the starting job has been his ever since.
With his opportunity, Trask has flashed. For his career, he has a 67.9% completion rate and 10.0 adjusted yards per attempt — and that’s despite playing in the SEC. And as great as Trask was as a junior, he was markedly better as a senior, taking a big Joe Burrow-esque developmental step forward in his second season as a starter and finishing No. 4 in 2020 Heisman voting.
- 2019 (12 games): 66.9% completion rate | 354-2,941-25 passing | 8.8 AY/A
- 2020 (12 games): 68.9% completion rate | 437-4,283-43 passing | 10.9 AY/A
Last year, Trask ranked No. 1 with 43 touchdowns passing and No. 2 with 356.9 yards passing per game. He was unquestionably aided by head coach Dan Mullen’s scheme and the presence of first-round pass catchers Kyle Pitts and Kadarius Toney in the offense. Even so, it’s undeniable that Trask can throw the ball.
Best thing about @GatorsFB QB Kyle Trask is courage making tight window NFL throws. Has confidence in his own ability to put ball where he wants and faith in skill guys to make contested plays. Some QB have one or the other but few have both. Similar to Joe Burrow in that regard. pic.twitter.com/ZsBVqUtm5m
— Jim Nagy (@JimNagy_SB) October 8, 2020
Trask hangs tough in the pocket and keeps his eyes downfield in the face of onrushing defenders. He’s willing to push the ball deep and attack defenses, as evidenced by his 9.4-yard average depth of target in 2020 (per SIS).
Per Lance Zierlein of NFL Media: “Trask clearly has the arm strength, touch and placement to wear out one-on-one coverage if he has good protection and above-average players around him.” In 2020, Trask ranked No. 3 on the SIS quarterback leaderboard with a 132.5 Independent Quarterback Rating Without Pressure.
Trask is far from a finished product, but he has potential, especially considering that the 2019-20 seasons were the first in years — at least a half decade — in which he got regular playing time.
If Trask is drafted on Day 2 and afforded the opportunity to sit behind an established starter for a couple years, he could develop into a viable NFL starter with streaming functionality in redraft leagues and QB2 value in superflex and best ball.
That’s not sexy for dynasty, but it does make Trask an intriguing long-term stash if he goes to a team with an aging veteran.
NFL Prospect Comp: Matt Schaub with less college experience
Matthew Freedman is 1,018-828-37 (55.1%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
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