NFL Draft Odds & Betting Predictions: Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask, Davis Mills
Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Kellen Mond
- Analyst Matthew Freedman walks us through how he's approaching Day 2 of the 2021 NFL Draft.
- Find his betting picks for three quarterbacks: Kellen Mond, Kyle Trask, and Davis Mills.
I’m writing this hours before Day 2 of the 2021 NFL Draft officially begins (7 p.m. ET on ABC/ESPN/NFL Network) … and there are still props we can bet!
Find a couple quarterback ones below.
2021 NFL Draft Odds & Bets
Kellen Mond Over 74.5 (-116) at FanDuel
Mond has an expected draft position of 83 at Grinding the Mocks …
… and he’s No. 100 in my top 100 big board.
Full disclosure: I have a middle position on Mond between 68.5 and 91.5, but I still think the over as it currently stands is bet-able. I doubt very much that Mond will go in Round 2, but that is very much what I’m rooting for to (not) happen.
Davis Mills Over 60.5 (-128) at FanDuel
As of Friday afternoon, the over/under for Mills is between 60.5 and 62.5 across the industry.
Here are the best lines I’ve find for both sides.
I’m betting the over.
The NFL seems to like Mills, and his expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks puts him on the borderline of Rounds 2-3, which is right in line with his over/under …
… but quarterbacks tend to be over-mocked relative to where they actually go in the NFL draft, and although he isn’t in my official top 100 big board, I have Mills ranked at No. 109.
And that’s not far off from what one sees at a couple of consensus big boards.
- The Athletic: No. 93
- NFL Mock Draft Database: No. 95
There’s a decent chance that he’s realistically slated for Rounds 3-4, so I see value on the over.
Full disclosure: I have a middle position on Mills between 60.5 and 73.5. I bet it a couple of weeks ago. I still like the over at 60.5.
I also have an arbitraged position on him from a couple of weeks ago.
Great find by @amicsta: The line has moved at FanDuel but is still available at Circa.
David Mills o60.5: -115 at Circa, 1.15 units
David Mills in Round 2: +500 at DK, 0.36 units
Win ~0.64 units as long as Mills does not go in Round 1. https://t.co/PQZVQrNMDX
— Matthew Freedman (@MattFtheOracle) April 20, 2021
That Round 2 number for Mills is now long gone, but at DraftKings and PointsBet you can still bet on the round in which he will be selected.
- Round 2: -110, PointsBet
- Round 3: +175, Both
- Round 4: +300, DraftKings
- Round 5: +700, Both
- Round 6: +1600, PointsBet
- Round 7: +3300, Both
At these odds, I would not bet it — although if you really want to do so, then I think focusing on Rounds 3-4 is best.
Given the opportunity, I’ll fade Mills: The number is no longer available, but I bet over 61.5 at -115 this morning and would still bet that at -128.
Kyle Trask Over 69.5 (-115) at William Hill
Entering Day 2 of the draft, the over/under for Trask is between 69.5 and 70.5. Here are the best lines I’ve find for both sides.
- Over 69.5: -115 at William Hill
- Under 70.5: -110 at FanDuel
His expected draft position at Grinding the Mocks puts him on the borderline of Rounds 2-3, which is right in line with his over/under …
… but he’s No. 82 in my top 100 big board.
And I’m perhaps even a little too high on him, given that he ranks No. 91 on both of the consensus big boards at The Athletic and NFL Mock Draft Database.
Relative to where they are mocked, quarterbacks tend to fall in the draft, and that’s what I’m betting on here.
Full disclosure: I have a middle position on Trask between 64.5 and 77.5. I bet it a couple of weeks ago. I still like the over at 69.5.
Kyle Trask Next QB Drafted (+210) at FanDuel
You can also bet on Trask to be the next quarterback selected at +210 at FanDuel, which actually intrigues me. In my top 100 as well as the consensus big boards at The Athletic and NFL Mock Draft Database, Trask is ranked higher than Mills (-160) and Mond (+300).
At significant plus money, I’m fine with betting that the big board leader is the next quarterback drafted even though Mills has more hype.
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