Best Rams-Saints Player Props: Will Alvin Kamara Dominate L.A. in NFC Championship?

Best Rams-Saints Player Props: Will Alvin Kamara Dominate L.A. in NFC Championship? article feature image

Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New Orleans Saints running back Alvin Kamara.

  • There are two player props offering betting value in the late game on Sunday's NFC Championship game.
  • This piece will focus on Saints RB Alvin Kamara and Rams RB C.J. Anderson.

There are three NFL player prop bets offering value in the Rams-Saints matchup on Sunday night, which kicks off at 3:05 p.m. ET on FOX.

The Action Network’s public betting data will often be used in this data-driven analysis of props.

So will the player props tool at FantasyLabs, which takes each prop bet listed across five of the most popular sportsbooks and leverages them against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in each of the past three seasons.

*All odds as of 12 p.m. ET on Saturday.

Saints RB Alvin Kamara

The pick: Over 100.5 rushing + receiving yards (-130)

While Kamara averaged 149.75 total yards in four games without Mark Ingram compared to 89.0 with Ingram this season, the Saints relied heavily on Kamara in their game against the Eagles as he out-touched Ingram 20-11, tallying up 106 total yards.

If this matchup resembles their shootout back in November, I’d expect the Saints to rely heavily on Kamara once again, which would be good news for this prop (via MyBookie).
In fact, Ingram was active for that game and they gave him just nine carries, and he saw one target. Meanwhile, they fed Kamara with 19 carries and five targets.

The Rams’ strength on defense is rushing the passer, not stopping the run, as they ranked 28th in rush DVOA this season. They still managed to hold Ezekiel Elliott to just 47 yards on the ground in a Divisional round win over the Cowboys.

Moreover, the Saints offensive line ranks second in the league in adjusted line yards, averaging 5.19 yards per attempt, per Football Outsiders. I’d expect a heavy dose of Kamara again in this game. Especially if the score remains close.

Rams RB C.J. Anderson

The pick: Under 46.5 rushing yards (-110 at Sportsbook)

Anderson piled up 123 yards and two touchdowns on 23 carries last week, out-carrying Todd Gurley 23-to-16. While that was impressive, the Rams were in control for most of the game.

In an expected shootout, I’d be shocked to see the Rams feed Anderson with another 20-plus touches.

A projection of 8-10 carries seems reasonable to expect from Anderson here, in which case he’d have to be incredibly efficient with his carries against a defense which ranks third in rush DVOA and allowing just 3.6 yards per carry this year.