Our Favorite Week 14 NFL Betting Picks: Spreads & Over/Unders for Sunday
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jack Conklin, Ryan Tannehill
- Ravens-Bills spread. 49ers-Saints. Our experts reveal how they're betting Week 14 of the NFL season.
- You'll find their favorite spread and over/under picks for 11 of the 13 games on Sunday's main slate.
Which double-digit favorite should you lay the points with? Could the Bills cover against the Ravens? Who has the edge in Chiefs-Patriots?
Our experts reveal how they’re betting Week 14, featuring spread and over/under picks for the following 11 games:
- Colts at Buccaneers: 1 p.m. ET
- Ravens at Bills: 1 p.m. ET
- Lions at Vikings: 1 p.m. ET
- Redskins at Packers: 1 p.m. ET
- Broncos at Texans: 1 p.m. ET
- Bengals at Browns: 1 p.m. ET
- Panthers at Falcons: 1 p.m. ET
- Dolphins at Jets: 1 p.m. ET
- Chargers at Jaguars: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Chiefs at Patriots: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Titans at Raiders: 4:25 p.m. ET
Now let’s dig into their picks!
Odds as of Sunday and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.
Sean Zerillo: Buccaneers -3 vs. Colts
I’ve always found it fitting that Winston gets to wear red and black for the Buccaneers, because whether I bet on or against him, I always feel like I’m spinning a roulette wheel.
Even still, I’m buying high on Tampa Bay after two consecutive wins, because its defense has really come to hand under Todd Bowles, who is probably more of an overqualified defensive coordinator than he was an under-qualified head coach of the Jets.
Reunited with Bruce Arians, Bowles has a defense that ranks No. 9 overall in Football Outsiders’ DVOA, thanks to a No. 1 ranking in run defense, which spells trouble for the Colts power run game behind Marlon Mack.
Mack is being thrust back into the lineup for this fading Colts team out of necessity, but this is a nightmare matchup, and the Colts don’t have the firepower to keep up with the Tampa Bay offense if they fall behind.
If Winston can avoid multiple turnovers, the Bucs should roll. Go ahead and spin the wheel.
Zerillo is 195-131-4 (59.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Matthew Freedman: Ravens -5.5 at Bills
I have a lot of respect for the Bills, who have a good home-field advantage, but the Ravens are just too good for me not to back at anything under -6.
The Ravens haven’t lost since the first month of the season, and seemingly every other week they defeat one of the league’s top teams. The Bills, meanwhile, have beaten only one team that currently has a winning record, and that was the Titans — when they were quarterbacked by Marcus Mariota.
The Ravens are No. 1 in the league with a 55% rush success rate (per Sharp Football Stats), and I expect they will run with relative ease against the Bills, who rank 24th overall in Pro Football Focus’ run defense grade.
On offense, the Ravens can sustain and finish drives. On defense, they have averaged just 12.6 points allowed since creating the cornerback trio of Jimmy Smith, Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey. I don’t think the Bills defense will be able to stop Lamar Jackson or keep up with him on offense.
Freedman is 499-373-21 (57.2%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Mike Randle: Vikings -13 vs. Lions
The Vikings host a Detroit team that they trounced 42-30 in Week 7. Matthew Stafford threw for 364 yards and four touchdowns that game, and needless to say that expectations are greatly reduced for the undrafted rookie free-agent David Blough.
Blough played well in his first career start, throwing for 280 yards and two touchdowns with one interception. However, this is on the road against a division rival with a strong defense: Minnesota ranks 11th best overall in defensive efficiency and top-10 against the run.
With Detroit ranking fifth-worst in run offense DVOA, this game sets up to put a ton of pressure on Blough, which certainly is concerning against a Vikings team that is undefeated (5-0) at home this season.
Since 2014, the Vikings have been particularly dominant at home with a 34-18-1 record against the spread as a favorite and a 30-14-1 record ATS at home.
I like the Vikings in a bounceback spot. I’d bet this up to -13.5.
Randle is 212-205-5 (50.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Stuckey: Redskins +13 at Packers
In what should be a lower-scoring game — Washington is dead last in seconds per play in neutral situations while Green Bay also doesn’t play fast — catching 13 with a team that should be able to run the ball against a team that’s a little overvalued in the market is too good to pass up.
Anything over 10.5 is worth a stab in my opinion.
Stuckey is 296-234-7 (55.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Stuckey: 49ers-Saints Under 44.5
This game has massive NFC playoff implications, so these teams should play a little closer to the vest. I also think the matchups will dictate a heavy rushing attack from both.
The Saints’ offensive line is a huge asset, but they’re just not healthy up front on the left side, which spells trouble against Nick Bosa and a 49ers defensive front that can generate pressure without blitzing as well as any team. Sean Payton may have to go with heavier sets and a heavier run script, which should keep the clock moving for an offense that doesn’t play fast (25th in pace in neutral situations).
On the other side of the ball, the Saints secondary can match up with the San Francisco receivers on the outside. They can also generate pressure to fluster Jimmy Garoppolo and are good enough against the run (sixth in rush defense DVOA) to slow San Fran down on the ground.
In a matchup of top-10 defenses that can generate a lot of pressure and match up on the outside, the under is the play here. I’ll be playing the game under (anything over 43) and sprinkling some on the first-half under as well (anything over 21.5).
Zerillo: Bengals-Browns Under 42
The weather forecast calls for average wind speeds of greater than 16 mph in this matchup, which has caused the total to drop from an opening number of 43 down to 42.
If the forecast holds, this game will trigger the following system for betting unders in windy divisional games:
That system is 5-0 this season, and has only finished with one losing year since 2003-04 (3-4-1 in 2011-12).
Combined, the Bengals and Browns are 16-8 to the under this season, but the majority of tickets (70%) have bet the over in this matchup.
However, the total has moved opposite those tickets with sharp money (44%) triggering multiple steam and reverse line signals on the under.
I would bet this number down to 41.5, as 41 is one of the primary key numbers for betting totals.
Zerillo: Falcons -3 vs. Panthers; Under 47.5
As my colleague John Ewing outlined in our preview for this game, history suggests this should be a lower-scoring affair than the total indicates.
Meanwhile, both teams are essentially in free fall — the Panthers have lost four games in a row, just fired Ron Rivera and may move on from Cam Newton; while the Falcons are 3-9 and have all but given Dan Quinn the pink slip.
Typically, teams are undervalued after their coach is fired because guys come out extra hungry and ready to protect their own job — but this doesn’t feel like one of those spots. When you read about how his players feel about Rivera and how they took the news, you realize this wasn’t your typical firing.
The players seem completely deflated.
Meanwhile, the Falcons’ run game was sparked last week by the return of Devonta Freeman. They’ll also get Julio Jones and Austin Hooper back.
Whether the Panthers are motivated are not, this Falcons team is healthier now than when they beat up Carolina on the road just a few weeks ago.
Zerillo: Dolphins-Jets Under 46
Late season divisional unders with high totals are consistently profitable investments.
The Dolphins took a 21-12 lead into halftime in their victory against the Jets on Nov. 3, but if Gang Green can get out to a lead here it will prevent Sam Darnold and Ryan Fitzpatrick from surpassing their 75 combined passing attempts from that matchup.
With the majority of tickets and cash coming in on the over, this total has increased from 44 to 46. History suggests that the upward move makes betting the under profitable:
Randle: Chargers-Jaguars Over 42.5
The return of Gardner Minshew brings a possible jump start in a home game against a non-divisional opponent.
Over his first eight games this season, Minshew produced 13 touchdowns with only two interceptions. With speedy wide receivers D.J. Chark, Dede Westbrook and Chris Conley, Jacksonville has the resources to hit big pass plays against Los Angeles.
The Jaguars’ defense has been a sieve against the run, bringing Melvin Gordon and Austin Ekeler in play for big fantasy performances. Wide receiver Mike Williams is No. 1 in yards per reception and No. 5 in yards per target, yet has not caught a touchdown pass all season. Positive regression is certainly in his favor.
John Ewing: Patriots -3 vs. Chiefs
The Patriots are 10-2 and have outscored their opponents by 177 points — the best point differential in football. It’s weird to say it, but despite their success this season, Bill Belichick and Co. have actually underperformed based on Pythagorean expectations.
According to Pythagorean expectations, the Pats should have 10.4 wins. That 0.4-win difference between expected and actual wins isn’t much, but it does point to value on Belichick and Tom Brady.
Historically, winning teams that have underperformed their points expectations have been good bets late in the season.
A $100 bettor following this strategy would have returned a profit of $2,952 since 2003
And after a dismal performance on Sunday Night Football, New England should bounce back. Since 2003, Brady has gone 35-13 (73%) ATS after a loss.
Ewing is 313-285-16 (52.3%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.
Randle: Raiders +3 vs. Titans
Always take advantage of knee-jerk overreactions when betting on the NFL.
The Raiders have looked terrible in consecutive losses at the Jets and Chiefs, losing by a combined score of 74-9, while the Titans have won three in a row including last week’s 31-17 upset at Indianapolis.
This is the perfect spot to grab the home underdog at the key number of +3.
The Raiders need this one desperately to stay in the playoff race, and they’re much tougher at home: Jon Gruden’s squad averages more points per drive (2.07) and sacks (1.67) per game at home.
I’d bet this down to +2.