Your NFL Sunday Betting Guide: Odds, Picks, Predictions, Props, More
Getty Images. Pictured: Bill Belichick, Tom Brady
- Four games will kickoff in the late afternoon window: Buccaneers-Raiders, 49ers-Patriots, Chiefs-Broncos and Jaguars-Chargers.
- You'll find NFL odds, picks and previews for all four Week 7 matchups from our staff of betting analysts below.
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Find snippets of our staff’s previews to each matchup below, complete with links to their full analysis as well as where to bet each of their picks.
NFL Odds, Picks & Predictions
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Reed Wallach: This was a rescheduled matchup from Week 4, when I looked to back Pittsburgh before the game was cancelled due to Tennessee’s COVID-19 outbreak. Now, in Week 7, my thoughts have not changed.
I do not buy the perfect Titans, who need to come back down to Earth at some point, and I think the Steelers are in the right spot to pounce.
On top of that, this will be the Titans’ third game in 12 days. That’s tough on any team, but even tougher on one that was unable to use its practice facility for weeks before this stretch and finds itself down its most strongest offensive lineman against one of the best defenses in football.
The mid-week line move from Pittsburgh at -2 to +1.5 was interesting, considering there was nothing noteworthy for that change. Again, though, my thoughts remain unchanged.
I am backing the better team coming in with a ton of momentum, while the Titans had to stand on their heads to secure an overtime victory last week.
Take the free 1.5 points with Pittsburgh, who I like to be the outright winner.
PICK: Steelers +1.5 (up to -1)
Michael Arinze: If you were handicapping this game primarily on motivation, you would have to give the edge to the Cowboys after their embarrassing primetime performance at home on Monday night.
I actually think it’s good for the Cowboys to get out of town and go on the road to face Washington. This gives them a great chance to hit the reset button against a team that’s ranked 30th in Football Outsiders’ offensive DVOA.
Dallas is 5-1 against the spread (ATS) in the last six matchups against Washington and also 5-1 ATS as the visiting team in this matchup. I love the buy-low opportunity in this spot, as this is almost a 10-point move from the lookahead number back in August.
Additionally, teams that are road favorites after losing by at least 28 points the previous week are 21-14 ATS and 25-10 straight up.
Dallas is active in this spot, and even though the Cowboys are 1-point favorites at other books, I’ll look to play them as a 1-point underdog at BetMGM.
If you only have access to them as a 1-point favorite, I would still think it’s well worth a look.
PICK: Cowboys +1
Read the full Cowboys-Washington preview or return to the table of contents.
Stuckey: I make this spread right around Bills -10 after adjusting them down a tad for the impact of back-to-back short weeks. For you trend players, double-digit home underdogs in the NFL have gone 53-41 against the spread (56.4%) since 2003, per our Bet Labs data.
It’s a fairly favorable situational spot for the Jets, who have an extra day of preparation. I’m also not sure how much Buffalo will show on offense with a gauntlet of a schedule coming up, starting with a showdown against the Patriots next weekend. That game could go a long way in determining the top of the AFC East.
You could argue this is a get-right game for Buffalo, as it will want to take its frustrations out on an inferior opponent after two consecutive losses. However, I could just as easily argue the Bills could come out flat against an 0-6 team on the road in an empty stadium after playing two emotional games against AFC contenders, and with games against the Patriots and Seahawks on deck. There’s a good chance they go vanilla and just try to get out of dodge healthy with a 7-10 point win.
Ultimately, it comes down to my number.
I bet the Jets at +13 earlier in the week, but that’s down to +10.5 as of writing — it’s why it’s so important to lock-in value early. Still, I see value at anything +11 or better if the line moves again before kickoff (shop for real-time lines here).
This should be the bottom for this falling knife — a decent indicator we’ve reached the bottom on a team is when 0-16 prop tweets start showing up more frequently.:
NY Jets go 0-16 in 2020-21 season?
— Jeff Sherman (@golfodds) October 21, 2020
Hopefully, I’m not covered in blood by the second quarter. If so, I can kill two birds with one stone at the hospital. I can get my hand stitched up while also having my head examined for losing actual dollars on this raging dumpster fire.
Although by having locked in the +13, I could also avoid an ER visit with a knife wound if the Jets sneak in the backdoor with a late touchdown down by say 17 late. The Jets offense has pretty much done nothing all year except for in the final drives of games in garbage time. That was actually the exact scenario in their Week 1 matchup — the Jets scored a touchdown in the final minute to lose by a much more respectable 27-17 final.
Pray for me.
PICK: Jets +13 (down to +11)
Brad Cunningham: If Houston can find a way to repeat what Tampa Bay was able to do against Green Bay, the Packers could be in trouble. That’s even more of a concern since they could be without their starting left tackle and running back.
Watson has been firing on all cylinders this season and it’s not out of the realm of possibility he could out-duel Rodgers.
I only have the Packers projected as -0.44 favorites on the road. That said, I think there’s some value in backing Watson and the Texans at +3.5. However, I would only play it down to +3 (shop real-time lines here).
PICK: Texans +3.5
Mike Randle: The matchup between the Browns offensive line and the Bengals defensive line is the biggest discrepancy in this game. Cincinnati will need to find a way to limit Cleveland on the ground while defending the pass without one of its top cornerbacks.
The loss of Mixon is critical to a mistake-prone offense that will need to rely heavily on the arm of a rookie quarterback, but Burrow will experience a ton of pressures and will likely not have the passing volume from Week 2.
Cleveland should force multiple turnovers in this game. I’m backing the Browns, even against a divisional rival on the road. I would play this line down to -4 points.
PICK: Browns -3.5
Raheem Palmer: Heading into the season, oddsmakers projected the Panthers to win just 5.5 games. Despite exceeding expectations thus far with wins over the Justin Herbert-led Chargers, the struggling Falcons and the Cardinals, I’m not sure much has changed.
The Saints are the better team coming off the bye and get Davenport and Jenkins back on defense. From a numbers perspective, the Buccaneers were laying 8.5 points to this same Panthers team a week after catching 3.5 points on the road against the Saints.
Even with the absence of Thomas and Sanders, this line is short. If you can find a -7 or lower on the Saints, this is a good buy-low spot. I’d also recommend adding New Orleans in 6-point teasers along with the Steelers.
PICK: Saints -7
Phillip Kall: The Lions and Falcons come into Week 7 off big wins ready to show they were not a fluke.
The Falcons will have Ryan, Jones and Ridley facing the young Detroit cornerbacks. The Lions will be excited for a similarly enticing matchup with Stafford and Golladay facing down the young backups for the Falcons. There will even be perfect weather since the game will be in a dome.
With the mismatches in the passing game, this could could snowball quickly into a shootout.
PICK: Over 54.5
Stuckey: From a betting perspective, this game is very difficult to handicap without knowing the status of the Raiders’ offensive line.
At full strength, Vegas would be a play in the +4.5-5 range that the line is sitting at as of writing (compare real-time odds here). However, with the current uncertainty, the side is a pass for me.
This is what the starting offensive line could look like:
- LT Kolton Miller
- LG John Simpson
- C Andre James
- RG Patrick Omameh
- RT Brandon Parker
Simpson and James would be making their second career start. If everything goes right, the Raiders will most likely have three starters back, assuming Richie Incognito is still not ready to return from IR. That would mean a backup guard and tackle in a group that hasn’t practiced together leading up to the game. The best case scenario certainly isn’t even ideal against what may be the league’s best defense.
I do have some interest in a live total. If Tampa were to jump out to a lead early and Vegas isn’t fully healthy upon front, I may look at a live under between two teams that don’t play very fast.
Both rank outside the top 20 in situation neutral pace, per Football Outsiders. I’d expect the Bucs to slow it down in the second half with a decent lead and the Raiders offense to struggle if forced to use backups up front.
LIVE ANGLE: Under
Raheem Palmer: What would this line look like if the the results of the Broncos game turned out differently?
With New England’s 18-12 home loss last week, I believe we’re getting the Patriots at a discount price against a banged-up 49ers team whose only wins are against both New York teams and the Rams. If you needed an analysis of the Rams season to this point, they’re 4-2 but their only wins are against the four abysmal NFC East teams.
The Rams outscored the 49ers 10-3 in the second half of last Sunday night’s game. Against a better Patriots defense, the 49ers’ struggles should continue.
Belichick-coached teams are 35-14 (71.4%) against the spread when coming off a loss, but off back-to-back losses his teams are 6-2 (75%) ATS and straight up.
This is a prime bounce-back spot for the Patriots and I see them spoiling Garoppolo’s return. I’m laying the points and would bet New England up to -3.
PICK: Patriots -3
Raheem Palmer: Weather forecasts for Sunday’s game calls for an 80% chance of snow with a temperature in the high teens and 11 mph winds. It’s no coincidence we’ve seen this side and total drop.
Nonetheless, Mahomes is 2-0 in snow games, winning those games by an average differential of 19 points. After starting off his career 9-3 against the spread (ATS) in division games, Mahomes has dropped the last two divisional games ATS, winning in overtime against the Chargers and losing outright against the Raiders.
This feels like a spot in which the Chiefs right the ship against a Broncos team that was the beneficiary of a rusty Patriots team that didn’t practice and gave up three turnovers. Lock should find it tough to keep up with the Chiefs’ offense should they build a lead, however I’m reluctant to lay such a large number on the road given Kansas City’s offensive line injuries, the weather and a low total in conjunction with the high spread.
With the line movement, the Chiefs have entered the teaser range, allowing us to get the Chiefs under a field goal. I’m typically not a fan of teasing road favorites of 7 or more down, but in this season when home-field advantage has been negated without fans, I believe there’s an edge here.
I’m taking the Chiefs in 6-point teasers along with the Lions through the key numbers of 6 and 7.
PICK: Chiefs 6-point Teaser with Lions
Mike Randle: Suffering through injuries on both sides of the ball, the Chargers have struggled to put teams away, even while scoring points. Both offenses should find success, which leads me to back the over in a high-scoring battle. The high-scoring potential of this game is in the shadow of other big Week 7 contests.
Jacksonville’s road success and ability to move the ball with Minshew makes this spread too high as well.
I’m taking Jacksonville +7.5 with the over on 49.5 points. I would take this side down to 7, and the total up to 50 points.
PICKS: Jaguars +7.5; Over 49.5