Titans-Colts Odds, Predictions, NFL Picks, Betting Preview: Is Indy Is Overvalued In Week 8?

Titans vs. Colts Odds

In week three, Tennessee closed as a 4.5-point favorite at home against a banged-up Colts team. Despite three turnovers and injuries to both star WRs, the Titans moved the ball at will and beat Indianapolis 25-16. Since then, the market has moved us from Tennessee as a 4.5-point favorite to now Indianapolis laying three at home.

What has changed since Week 3? Indianapolis has gotten healthy, and — led by Carson Wentz — the offense has come to life and gotten the Colts season back on track. Meanwhile, Tennessee beat the two leading AFC contenders, including an absolute shellacking of the Kansas City Chiefs at home.

Both of these teams are trending up and are the two leading contenders in the AFC South. A Titans win would give them a massive advantage toward a divisional title, while a Colts win would get them back to .500 and give Indy a chance to re-claim the division for the first time since 2014. Who wins this battle of hot teams? The Colts are the rightful favorite, but the market has seemingly over-corrected to that at this point.

Titans vs. Colts Matchup

Titans Offense Firing on All Cylinders

All statistics need context, particularly in the NFL where there is a ton of noise. And Tennessee's statistical profile needs some of the most unwinding, as evidenced by having the 19th-ranked passing offense by DVOA.

In Week 1, Tennessee was absolutely horrible against the Cardinals. I'm not exactly sure what happened, but new offensive coordinator Todd Downing looked completely lost. Ryan Tannehill averaged -0.39 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, and Downing only dialed up play-action on five of Tannehill's 33 dropbacks. Tennessee made its money using play-action under former OC Arthur Smith, and Tannehill graded out in the top seven in both seasons under Smith prior to 2021.

NFL sample sizes are small, and we want to account for as much data as we can given how little we get over the course of one season. But I think in the case of Tennessee, we should at least weigh that Week 1 game less than the others, based on the signal we've gotten since.

From Week 2 on, Tennessee has been fourth in overall EPA/play. Tannehill is slinging it, despite missing both star WRs A.J. Brown and Julio Jones for various amount of time. In Week 3 against these same Colts, Tannehill averaged 0.38 EPA/play, which would grade out as No. 1 in the NFL if prorated for a whole season. This was despite Brown leaving in the first quarter with an injury.

Tennessee's offense will sorely miss Jones, whose very presence opens up the rest of the field. Without him, Tennessee doesn't have as much downfield speed, but that is less significant against a team like Indianapolis that plays zone and keeps everything in front of it.

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Market has Over-Corrected on Colts Offense

A few weeks ago, Frank Reich and company were 0-3 and looking at a lost season. Carson Wentz managed to sprain both ankles, the offensive line was a mess, and the defense had been gashed (albeit by three very good offenses).

Fast forward to today, and we're talking about Indianapolis in a much different light. Wentz has been praised for his play this year, which on the surface has been quietly solid. He has just one interception this season, a vast improvement over his Philadelphia days, and has only taken two sacks per game.

But that's the surface. When digging in more, Wentz's performance has been nothing more than average.

Wentz currently ranks 20th among qualified QBs in EPA/dropback. The QBs he's near? Teddy Bridgewater, Jimmy Garoppolo, Tua Tagovailoa and Taylor Heinicke. All four of the latter QBs have been much maligned this year for their short-comings (although Heinicke is a backup). As a whole, the Colts passing offense ranks 20th in EPA/play and 26th in Passing Success Rate, similar to teams like the Giants and Jaguars.

And Tennessee's Defense is Surprisingly Not Horrible

Tennessee's defense last season was a bottom-five unit, and many (including myself) didn't think it did enough in the offseason to improve. So far, however, the Titans defense has quietly been competent.

Tennessee is ninth in Dropback Success Rate and 15th in overall EPA/play allowed this season. It is shockingly fifth in pressure rate and knockdown rate, despite a below-average blitz rate, which is the optimal defense — getting home to the QB without sending extra guys.

I expected this unit to be borderline bottom five this season. That it is in the low- to mid-20s is a major improvement and makes Tennessee a much more appealing team to back in the market.

The Titans secondary is a massive question mark with all of the injuries it has, but Indianapolis is still banged up at WR. Parris Campbell remains sidelined, and T.Y. Hilton won't be 100% even if he plays. This at least gives Tennessee's inexperienced CBs a chance to have some success.

Titans vs. Colts Picks

When this game re-opened close to a PK, I agreed with the opening line. We've gotten enough signal from Indianapolis recently, even if against weak competition, that this team is closer to the preseason market expectation: very good rushing attack, solid in the front seven, but question marks on the backend and at QB.

I understand the move toward the Colts, but we're getting to the point where this adjustment is too large. Tennessee beat this team, albeit when banged up, by two scores as a 4.5-point favorite a few weeks ago. Since then, Tennessee has beaten Buffalo and Kansas City, neither of which was fluky.

Home-field advantage has been way down this year and has been declining year-over-year. There's something to the home crowds, but teams are getting smarter about traveling. And this is a divisional game — these Tennessee players are used to going on the road at Lucas Oil.

I would play Tennessee at a not-too-expensive +3. But for those who don’t have access to +3, Titans +2.5 is an excellent teaser option.

This is a team that if ahead, can pound the rock, shorten the game and finish a win. But if Indy is ahead, Tennessee has shown the ability to throw the ball and get itself back into it. A teaser leg from 2.5 up to 8.5 — or even 1.5 to 7.5, if the line moves — is a strong play if you don’t have access to betting the spread at +3 with -120 juice or better.

Pick: Titans +3 | Bet to: +3 (-120)