Sunday’s Best Week 3 NFL Prop Bets: Philip Rivers, Marquise Brown, More
Philip G. Pavely-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: San Diego Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers (17).
- Mike Randle breaks down his five favorite NFL prop bets for Sunday's main slate.
- See how to bet Marquise Brown's receiving yards, Philip Rivers' passing TDs and more props.
NFL player prop bets offer tremendous value on the board every week. They receive less action and money than the traditional bets, so savvy bettors can gain a big edge by reacting to news quicker than the books.
The betting lines for prop bets are often less efficient than NFL sides and totals, opening up attractive opportunities.
One of the best resources to help determine which prop bets to wager is our FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
We leverage the listed prop bets against our player projections from Sean Koerner, the No. 1 in-season fantasy football ranker in three of the past four seasons.
Each prop bet receives a Bet Quality grade between 1 and 10, with 10 being the biggest edge.
Now let’s take a look at five props with a Bet Quality of at least 9 for Sunday’s main slate. Last season, props with a grade of 9 or higher went 444-289-29 (58.2% win rate).
Ravens WR Marquise Brown
THE PICK: Under 80.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Bet Quality: 10/10
This prop features a 20% projected difference from the implied total with our FantasyLabs Player Props tool. The rookie wideout is currently third among all wide receivers with 233 receiving yards.
However, per PlayerProfiler, Brown ranks 56th with an average target separation of just 1.39 yards. He has also logged a 40.8% snap share, which ranks 102nd among all wide receivers.
In addition, Brown’s 66.7% catch rate ranks 37th, a byproduct of Lamar Jackson’s occasional accuracy struggles.
In a battle between two Super Bowl favorites, I project it will be difficult for Brown to break free for one of his patented long touchdowns. The weather forecast calls for rain throughout the game, making big passing plays more difficult.
Kansas City has defended the pass well, ranking 12th best in pass defense DVOA according to Football Outsiders. The Chiefs also rank 11th in pass deflections (12) and fourth in interceptions (three).
While Baltimore’s Jackson has performed brilliantly at quarterback, he only ranks 23rd in pass attempts through two games. Brown will need to maintain his high efficiency with low Week 3 volume while playing in one of the NFL’s most difficult road venues.
We project Brown to fall 16.5 yards short of his implied total making this a full 10-rated prop. So far this season, 10-rated props have hit at a 64% (47-25-1) win rate.
Jets QB Luke Falk
THE PICK: Under 0.5 Touchdown Passes (+138)
Bet Quality: 10/10
The New England defense has yet to allow a touchdown in two games. They rank eighth in passing yards allowed and have the second-most sacks in the league.
More importantly, Luke Falk is making his first NFL start on the road at Foxboro. Falk played admirably after entering last Monday night’s game when teammate Trevor Siemian broke his ankle.
However, most of Falk’s passes were short routes to the running backs or slot receivers. He will certainly experience a more resistant defense on the road. In their last home game, the Patriots held Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger (who led the NFL in passing yards last season) without a touchdown pass.
The Jets play at a slow offensive pace, particularly in the second half of games. New York averages 31 seconds per play after halftime, further limiting Falk’s passing opportunities. The Jets’ projected team total is only 10.5 points, meaning their one projected touchdown would have to come through the air to reach the over.
I’m going with Patriots defense to shut down Falk in his first career start. If New York scores, it will be more than likely be via the ground game.
Bengals QB Andy Dalton
THE PICK: Under 25.5 Passing Completions (-115)
Bet Quality: 9/10
As if going against Buffalo’s pass defense in their home opener wasn’t difficult enough, the weather conditions project poorly for Cincinnati’s game against the Bills. Winds at 15-17 mph are expected Sunday in Buffalo.
Regardless, the passing completion total seems high based on Dalton’s NFL history. In 62 career road games, Dalton has averaged 31.6 attempts and just 19.5 completions. The Bills rank seventh-best in pass defense DVOA after finishing second in 2018.
Dalton completed 35 passes in the Bengals 21-20 loss at Seattle, but completed just 26 passes last week at home against San Francisco, in a game they were trailing throughout.
Look for Buffalo to consistently attack Dalton, who is one of the worst NFL quarterbacks when facing pressure. Buffalo ranks second in quarterback hits which is a bad sign for Dalton’s 26.2% pressured completion percentage that ranks 22nd among all quarterbacks. In 11 games last season, Dalton was 29th with a 28.8% pressured completion percentage.
Cincinnati’s offensive line was rated second-worst by ProFootballFocus after losing first-round offensive tackle Jonah Williams, and watching center Billy Price lose his starting job in the preseason.
With a relatively low over/under total of 44 points, this game projects to be low-scoring especially given the windy conditions. We project Dalton for 21 completions, which is 18% below his implied total. This is a 9-rated prop bet which have hit at a 67% rate (53-26) so far this season.
Packers RB Jamaal Williams
THE PICK: Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
Bet Quality: 10/10
We turn our attention this week to the other Green Bay running alongside Aaron Jones, plodder Jamaal Williams. In two games, the 212-pound running back with 4.55 40-Yard Dash speed has 14 carries for 28 rushing yards including a five-carry, zero rushing yard performance at Chicago.
But in his last game at home against the stout Minnesota defense, Williams tallied 28 rushing yards on nine carries. I believe Williams should easily repeat his Week 2 performance against the Denver Broncos.
In 16 career home games, Williams has typically exceeded 14.5 rushing yards. He has averaged 8.8 rushing attempts, 30.1 rushing yards, with 0.12 rushing touchdowns. Since Williams entered the league in 2017, Green Bay has found success on the ground in home games:
Head coach Matt LaFleur stated this week that he prefers for Williams and Jones to get a “more even split” of the carries, after Jones logged 23 attempts in last week’s 21-16 win over Minnesota. LaFleur’s history with Tennessee last season supports this, as he used both Derrick Henry and Dion Lewis for nearly an even split.
The Broncos rushing defense has been vulnerable, allowing 113 total yards and two rushing touchdowns to Oakland’s Josh Jacobs in Week 1. We project Williams for 9.1 yards (63%) more yards than his implied total, making this a full 10-point prop.
Chargers QB Philip Rivers
THE PICK: Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-143)
Bet Quality: 9/10
Betting the over on QB passing touchdowns in 9 or higher rated props have been very successful this season. Using our FantasyLabs Player Props tool, those bets have an 81% (13-3) hit rate in 2018.
This includes Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers who threw three touchdown passes in a 30-24 Week 1 win over Indianapolis. Rivers should again find passing success at home against the Texans on Sunday.
In Los Angeles’ last 25 home games, Rivers has averaged 34.7 pass attempts and two touchdown passes. In 2018 alone, he averaged 35.1 attempts and again two touchdown passes. The 37-year-old signal-caller is a model of consistency.
Houston has struggled to put pressure on the opposing team quarterbacks, ranking just 22nd with 10 quarterback hits and 14th with just five sacks. The Los Angeles offensive line has functioned surprisingly well, allowing only 11 quarterback hits this season.
Houston’s pass defense has been below average, ranking 18th in pass defense DVOA. In Week 1, the Texans allowed 40-year-old Drew Brees to throw for 370 passing yards and two touchdowns.
In this 9-rated prop, expect Rivers to keep the robust quarterback passing touchdown streak rolling against Houston.