Week 7 NFL DraftKings Prop Bets: Buy or Fade Derrick Henry?

Week 7 NFL DraftKings Prop Bets: Buy or Fade Derrick Henry? article feature image

Jim Brown-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Derrick Henry

  • Matthew Freedman identifies three of the best Week 7 NFL prop bets on DraftKings.
  • See how he's betting Derrick Henry's receiving yards, Randall Cobb's receptions and various Case Keenum passing props.

DraftKings is consistently one of the first sportsbooks to post NFL player props each week, releasing lines on Friday afternoon for the slate of Sunday games.

Lines for the Week 7 games have just been posted, and since the prop market moves quickly, I’m highlighting some bets I’m making immediately and pointing out how our FantasyLabs Props Tool grades all three props below.

This season, I’m 179-114-3 (+36.3) on NFL player props.

Odds as of Friday afternoon and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $200.

Redskins QB Case Keenum Completions, Passing Yards & Passing Touchdowns

  • 20.5 Completions: Over -112, Under -112
  • 219.5 Passing Yards: Over -112, Under -112
  • 1.5 Passing Touchdowns: Over +135, Under -175

Hammer. The. Unders.

All of them.

Under interim head coach Bill Callahan, the Redskins want to be a run-first team. Last week, in Callahan’s first game in charge, Keenum had just 25 pass attempts.

Granted, the Redskins had a run-heavy game script against the winless Dolphins. But I expect that against the heavily favored 49ers, the Redskins will look to run the ball, slow the game down, limit mistakes and take the ball away from Keenum.

And when the Redskins do throw the ball, I doubt they’ll do so successfully.

nfl week 4 odds-sharp betting picks-redskins-giants-bucs-rams-jaguars-broncos
Photo credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Case Keenum

In the passing game, the Redskins offense is No. 27 with 4.8 adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A), while the 49ers defense is No. 2 with a 3.2 ANY/A. That difference is massive. As bad as the Redskins have been this year, the 49ers have made far better terms look worse than the Redskins when passing. That’s impressive.

And finally there’s the real chance that if the Redskins fall behind or Keenum throws a couple of interceptions, he could be benched for rookie Dwayne Haskins or veteran Colt McCoy.

This year, against quarterbacks far better than Keenum, the 49ers have held opposing teams to just 16.2 completions, 171.4 yards passing and 1.0 passing touchdown per game.

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Keenum projected for 16.3 completions, 175 yards passing and 1.03 passing touchdowns.

Picks: Under 20.5 (-112), Under 219.5 (-112), Under 1.5 (-175)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10 (out of 10) for all three bets

Titans RB Derrick Henry Receiving Yards

  • Over 11.5: +100
  • Under 11.5: -125

As I note in my Week 7 fantasy RB breakdown, last year in Week 14, the Titans finally decided to treat Henry like a lead back and give him a locked-in 15 carries per game.

While he’s been incredibly productive on the ground in the 10 games since with his 200-1,001-11 rushing stat line, he’s done almost nothing as a receiver as evidenced by his 9-123-1 performance on 14 targets.

Henry’s average of 12.3 receiving yards per game as the clear lead back might suggest that the over is the sharp play, but that number is heavily skewed by a 75-yard reception he had in Week 1.

In just three of the past 10 games has Henry had more than 11.5 receiving yards.

The Chargers are No. 29 in pass defense against running backs (per Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric), so Henry could get loose for a long reception.

But if any Titans back is likely to get receiving production against the Chargers, I’m inclined to think it will be Dion Lewis, who has averaged 3.4 targets over the past 10 games.

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Henry projected for 8.2 receiving yards.

Pick: Under 11.5 (-125)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10

Cowboys WR Randall Cobb Receptions

  • Over 3.5: +125
  • Under 3.5: -157

The Eagles have allowed a league-worst 82-1,214-11 receiving stat line to opposing wide receivers, so the over has potential.

But Cobb (back) missed Week 6 due to injury, and he only got in a limited practice session on Friday. He’s tentatively expected to play against the Eagles, but he’s almost certainly nowhere near 100%.

So Cobb could see limited snaps, especially since the Cowboys have wide receiver Tavon Austin and even running back Tony Pollard available to play in the slot.

And Cobb is also at risk of aggravating his injury during the game.

On top of that, the Eagles have struggled in the secondary in large part because of injuries, and this week they are expecting the return of cornerbacks Ronald Darby (hamstring) and Jalen Mills (foot).

While Darby and Mills will play on the outside, former Cowboys corner Orlando Scandrick will start in the slot, where he’s earned a 69.1 coverage grade on limited action this year (per Pro Football Focus).

Although this matchup might look easy, it will probably be tougher than it seems.

In his five games with the Cowboys, Cobb has averaged 3.4 receptions per game. But given Cobb’s injury, the presence of Austin and the expected improvement of the Eagles secondary, it’s fair to project him for fewer receptions this week.

In the FantasyLabs Props Tool, we have Cobb projected for 2.5 receptions.

Pick: Under 3.5 (-157)
FantasyLabs Bet Quality Rating: 10

To see the rest of the player props I’m betting for Week 7, follow me in The Action Network App. I will continue to fill out my prop card throughout the weekend.

How would you rate this article?