The Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 25. Kickoff from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo., is set for 3:00 p.m. ET. Patriots vs Broncos will broadcast on CBS and Paramount+.
The Patriots are 3.5-point favorites over the Broncos on the spread (Patriots -3.5), with the over/under set at 43 total points. New England is a -225 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Denver is +185 to pull off the upset.
Below, you can find our Patriots vs Broncos predictions for the AFC Championship Game, which include predictions for the spread, moneyline, game total and player props.
Patriots vs Broncos Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Best Bet |
|---|---|---|
  | 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
| 3:00 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Patriots vs Broncos Odds
- Patriots vs Broncos Moneyline: Patriots -225, Broncos +185
- Patriots vs Broncos Spread: Patriots -3.5, Broncos +3.5
- Patriots vs Broncos Total: 43
Patriots vs Broncos Spread Prediction
The question of how many points Bo Nix is worth to the spread is the topic of the week regarding the AFC Championship Game — in my estimation, it is less than the line movement indicates. My pick really is not so much about Jarrett Stidham as it is about the number.
The Patriots’ schedule over the regular season was one of the easier ones in recent history; we have seen a much lower rate of success in the NFL playoffs as they have had to deal with tougher competition. Drake Maye and the Pats offense produced their lowest success rate of the entire season in the Divisional Round at 30%.
The Patriots' offensive line has had trouble protecting Maye, who has been sacked on nearly 14% of his dropbacks this postseason, which is a major concern against this Denver pass rush. In addition to their elite pass rush, the Broncos' secondary has been excellent, ranking second in yards per pass attempt.
New England may find the least path of resistance to be a heavy-dose of the ground game with Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson, but that will only limit the total number of possessions in this game and make it more difficult to win with margin.
Keep in mind, even with Nix at the helm, the Broncos offense was below average in success rate, ranking 19th in the NFL. I am not going to pretend Stidham is going to light up a Patriots defense playing well right now, but his respectable 7.2 yards per attempt over the course of his career is enough for head coach Sean Payton to coax 17-21 points out of his backup signal-caller.
Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-110)
Patriots vs Broncos Moneyline Prediction
I know that Jarrett Stidham is starting, but he's been good in the limited times we've seen him play. I don't know how much of a downgrade he is from Bo Nix.
The spread likely would have been around -3 for the Broncos if Nix were healthy, and there is no way that Nix is worth 7 points in this spot.
The Broncos have the much better roster (outside of QB) in this game, and they have home-field advantage. There is no way this line should be over +2.5.
Like John above, I'm taking the Broncos to cover and I'm also betting them on the moneyline.
Pick: Broncos Moneyline (+188)
Patriots vs Broncos Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
I don’t have a ton of belief that the Broncos offense with Jarrett Stidham at quarterback will be able to extend drives or put up points against the Patriots. Denver’s offense was inconsistent even with Bo Nix under center — now they have a player who hasn’t taken first-team reps all season nor started a game since the 2023 season.
On the other side of the ball, the Patriots have a tall task against the Broncos defense, especially with this game being played in Denver. The Broncos have been a top-five defense both by DVOA and points allowed this season, and recorded 11 more sacks than any other team in the regular season.
At the same time, the Patriots played at the third-slowest total pace this season, and they were bottom 10 when leading by seven or more. That suggests that even if they are able to score on the Broncos early, they’ll likely slow down the game as it goes on, rather than risk taking on the Broncos’ ferocious pass rush.
Which means we have multiple paths to this game going under the 43.5 total – the Broncos defense could hold the Patriots down, or New England could take its foot off the gas even when it has the opportunity to put up more points.
The best line on the under is at DraftKings, where the 43.5 line is -118, but I’d gladly take any of the under 43s in the market at a better price. Plus, the under strongly correlates with the Patriots winning, so a same-game parlay with their moneyline or spread is also a solid bet.
Pick: Under 43.5 (-118)
Patriots vs Broncos Player Props: Rhamondre Stevenson
By Brit Devine
Rhamondre Stevenson has gone over this line in only four games this season (postseason included) so game-log watchers won't like this one, but I sense a huge shift here in usage.
Stevenson had 16 carries in the Divisional Round against the Texans despite seeing just two carries in the first half after suffering an eye injury that kept him out for over a quarter.
He is averaging 4.7 yards per carry in the playoffs (compared to 2.5 yards per carry from teammate TreVeyon Henderson), and with a Super Bowl trip on the line, it would make a lot of sense to give Stevenson a large majority of the workload given the drastic differences in performance of the Patriots RBs down the stretch.
Stevenson is also a much better pass blocker, which should keep him on the field against a good Denver pass rush. That can allow him to get extra carries, as he should really dominate the snap share in this game.
Pick: Rhamondre Stevenson Over 12.5 Rush Attempts (+106)
Patriots vs Broncos Player Props: Jarrett Stidham
By Grant Neiffer
While some people are down on Jarrett Stidham's prospects, I am much higher on him.
We don't have a big sample size to evaluate, but in Stidham's four career starts, he's had 219, 365, 224 and 272 passing yards.
Bo Nix was wildly inconsistent this season and Stidham may not be a huge drop-off. The Patriots' pass defense has been below average this season, ranking bottom-8 in DVOA, and with the Broncos opening at 5.5-point underdogs, they'll likely be forced to throw.
I have Stidham projected for 20 yards over this number, and I'm hitting the ladder all the way to 300 yards as well.
Pick: Jarrett Stidham Over 190.5 Passing Yards (-113)
