The Broncos will take on the Patriots in the AFC Championship Game. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. EST at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, CO. The game will be broadcast live on CBS. Here's everything you need to know about Broncos vs. Patriots odds, the latest NFL spreads, NFL over/unders, and more.
The Patriots opened as a -5.5 point favorite over the Broncos and are favored at 70 cents to win. Meanwhile, the Broncos are priced at 33 cents on Fanatics Markets to pull off the upset. The total is set at over/under 41.5 total points scored.
Broncos vs Patriots Prediction
My Broncos vs Patriots Pick: Patriots -5.5
My Patriots vs. Broncos best bet is on the Patriots to cover the spread of 5.5 points.
Broncos vs. Patriots Odds
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Broncos vs. Patriots Betting Preview
Denver Broncos
The Broncos have had so much success in close games this season that it's hard to pick against them in a game of this magnitude, but we have to address reality. With Bo Nix out, there isn't much optimism for the same kind of close-game magic that Denver has had for most of the season.
Nix, despite struggling at times with consistency and accuracy, is a far better quarterback than Jarrett Stidham. Even if there are former teammates of Stidham or Broncos fans saying he'll be fine, there is not a single backup quarterback in the NFL who can just step into the pressure-cooker situation of the AFC Championship game and perform exceptionally.
Stidham has fewer than 200 passing attempts in his career, and his 8/8 TD/INT ratio isn't anything to write home about. He won't need to be "exceptional" for the Broncos to have a chance in this game, as Denver still has a strong run game and a great defense. But New England knows that, and the Patriots are going to do as much as they possibly can to force this game into Stidham's hands.
Denver's defense has to take over this game. The Broncos led the NFL in the regular season with 68 sacks (11 more than the second-place Atlanta Falcons) and will need to create that same level of chaos around Drake Maye if they are going to win.
That task doesn't seem impossible, though, as the Texans (who had 47 sacks this season) were able to sack Maye five times in the Divisional round. The Broncos have to run the ball effectively, keep the total possession count low, and knock Maye out of his rhythm early. If they can do those three things, they have a fighter's chance to pull off the upset at home.
New England Patriots
On the other hand, the Patriots are playing amazing football in the playoffs. New England has outscored its opponents by a combined score of 44-19 in the first two rounds.
Last weekend, the Patriots' defense dominated the Texans, hauling in four interceptions and sacking Stroud three times in a 28-16 win that could have finished with an even more lopsided score.
In New England's first game of the playoffs, the Patriots sacked Justin Herbert six times. New England leads all teams in the playoffs with nine sacks over two games, a significant uptick from the 2.76 sacks per game (47 total sacks) it averaged during the regular season.
While Nix avoided being sacked against the Bills, Buffalo's pass rush is lackluster at best, and Nix's mobility is much better than Stidham's. The Patriots will try to get after Stidham early, and even if they can't, the secondary that secured four interceptions last weekend will have more than enough preparation to hold up.
I have talked at length about New England's defense, but the offense was also very efficient relative to the opponent it played last weekend. Scoring 28 points against Houston's defense is a tall task, and that gives me a lot of confidence in the Patriots' ability to go on the road and put up a solid performance against a slightly worse (but still elite) Denver defense.
Broncos vs. Patriots Pick
This might be a relatively low-scoring game, but the Patriots went through that exact game script last weekend. Against Houston, Maye was pressured heavily and got sacked five times, and yet New England put up 28 points and dominated.
I don't think New England will go to Denver and dominate the Broncos, mainly because I don't think they'll have the opportunity to force five turnovers again. But Denver isn't going to avoid turnovers because it will execute well on offense. The Broncos are going to avoid turnovers by design. They know that in a game like this, they can't afford to have their backup quarterback playing the same gunslinging style as Nix.
Stidham won't put the ball in harm's way, but Denver won't be able to rely on its run game with the Patriots daring them to pass, and the potential one-dimensionality of the Broncos has me confident that New England will win this by a touchdown or more.
My Pick: Patriots -5.5
