As we reach the end of the NFL Playoffs with only three games left, I've zeroed in on both Conference Championship matchups and a Super Bowl lookahead.
We have two very different matchups: the New England Patriots take on the Denver Broncos for the AFC title, with neither team able to fully convince me throughout the season, while the Los Angeles Rams and Seattle Seahawks clash in a very exciting game that could be the "real" Super Bowl.
Let's dive into my NFL Conference Championship picks — which include spread predictions for Patriots vs Broncos, a flurry of props for Rams vs Seahawks, and a Super Bowl LX pick.
NFL Conference Championship Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Patriots vs Broncos Spread Prediction
These are two teams I haven't totally believed in all year — neither one has cracked the top seven of my power ratings all season — yet here we are in the AFC Championship Game, and none of that strength of schedule mumbo jumbo matters much anymore.
I put Denver on fraud watch last week and loaded up on Buffalo stock, but the Broncos got the W. Did that prove us wrong, though? Hard to say. The Broncos needed five turnovers and about seven straight 50/50 calls to eke out a lucky win in overtime as home favorites, so was that really all that convincing?
New England hasn't felt particularly overwhelming yet either. It feels more like the Patriots let both playoff opponents so far beat themselves, certainly a sound enough strategy when it works.
And maybe it will be a third straight week, now that the Patriots have lucked into new Broncos QB Jarrett Stidham!
By season-long numbers, the weak link on the field is New England's defense, which ranked 25th by DVOA for the season, in the bottom quarter of the league. Denver's offense actually leapt to the top quarter over the final third of the season — although that was with Bo Nix under center, of course.
New England's offense had great metrics during the season but has been underwhelming at best in the playoffs, and Denver's much-ballyhooed defense has also faded mightily down the stretch.
The Patriots faced only one top-five defense in the entire regular season. Now, they will face their third in three weeks in the postseason. That one regular-season matchup came against the Browns, and New England had only one drive over seven plays. The Patriots did find points with some explosive plays and short-field scores after turnovers, and that's what the Patriots offense has looked like in the playoffs.
Will that work against Denver?
New England leads the league in deep passing EPA and explosives, including almost 20% of its passing plays, but Denver's defense was best in the league at limiting explosive plays this season at just 8%. That's once every eight plays the Patriots would typically expect a chunk play that this Broncos defense might take away, and Drake Maye's offense has not shown an ability to go on long, sustained drives these playoffs.
Denver's run defense matches up well, too, shutting down outside runs and funneling the run inside. Buffalo exploited that with a power rushing attack, but New England has not run well inside and may not get its outside explosives.
The Patriots offensive line has also struggled in these playoffs. Rookie Will Campbell ranks just 87th of 98 tackles in pressure rate allowed since returning from injury, and he and fellow rookie Jared Wilson leave the left side of the line quite vulnerable against Nik Bonitto and a Broncos defensive front that led the league in pressures this season.
New England also ranks below average in red zone offense and dead last defensively, while Denver ranks in the top five in both areas. Red zone is invariably a tiny sample, but if those trends hold up, that could mean seven turning into three a time or two, and that can swing a game.
What about New England's defense?
The Patriots have looked pretty good on that end in the playoffs, but this is probably a sell-high spot for that unit. Teams that allow 16 points or less in both playoff games heading into the Conference Championship are 0-6 SU.
New England's defense has lived a charmed life against terrible Texans and Chargers offensive lines, both maybe bottom five in the entire league. Denver's offensive line will be like going from rookie to All-Pro on Madden, since the Broncos are a top-three unit.
Defense gets much harder when you're not dominating the trenches, and New England's pass rush has been unreliable for most of the season. Its run defense has also cratered down the stretch, though the return of Milton Williams has helped.
If Denver can dominate the trenches, the Broncos have a real chance.
In particular, that outstanding offensive line can give Jarrett Stidham a chance. Denver ranks top five in short passing volume, so Stidham should be able to stand and deliver, and the Broncos should be able to run the ball some and maybe even break some long outside runs.
The matchup tells us Denver has some real advantages.
And this line is all wrong.
Bo Nix represented the floor for the Broncos, not the ceiling. What if that great offensive line and Sean Payton's coaching staff were just as responsible for the floor? Might Stidham slot right in without a huge dropoff?
This spread was listed as Broncos -1.5 before last weekend but reopened at Patriots -5.5, which means the Nix injury swung the line by a full seven points. That went down to six, but it was still far too high.
I've seen bookmakers suggest about four points, and I'd make it more like two or three, but six or seven is absurd, closer to what someone like Josh Allen or Patrick Mahomes is worth.
The truth is that we don't know a ton about Stidham after four career starts, though he did drop 365 yards and three scores in his debut as a 10-point underdog against the No. 1 defense, the 49ers, in an overtime loss.
It's worth noting, though, that quarterbacks making their first start of the season in the playoffs are an ugly 1-7 SU since 1950, and that one win was by Frank Reich in a game he trailed 35-3.
It will be tough for the Broncos to win — but they have a great chance to cover an inflated line.
Home playoff dogs of four or more points are 5-0 ATS over the last two decades, covering by 8.0 PPG. They lost three of those games in one-score heartbreakers, but they've been competitive in every game.
Sean Payton also has a great history with backup quarterbacks at 14-7 ATS, including 12-9 SU, and those numbers get even better when you filter out some meaningless last-week-of-season games.
It's almost always a good idea to bet on the 1-seed in the Conference Championship.
They're 21-5 SU since 2006, including 12-3 against 2-seeds and an impressive 5-1 as anything worse than a field goal favorite, with an average margin of +10.0 PPG.
This line is just all wrong.
New England should not be favored by anywhere near this much on the road in a tough environment in such a big spot, and the Broncos should never have been downgraded this far from Nix to Stidham.
Grab Broncos +4.5 (DraftKings) or the best number you can find above the key number.
I think the Patriots win a squeaker, but if you do think Denver wins, you should consider playing more aggressively than a simple +210 moneyline. That's barely worth the squeeze, and do you really want Stidham having to win a close one late against Maye?
If you like Denver to win, you probably need a more comfortable game script, with Denver's defense dominating, maybe even creating a couple of big turnovers or a defensive score. Skip the moneyline and try something a bit more aggressive, something like Broncos -5.5 at +350 or Broncos -9.5 at +630 (FanDuel).
It's tough to learn a ton from Stidham's four regular-season starts, but one big difference from Nix will likely be his sack avoidance.
Stidham was sacked 13 times in his four starts, while Nix was sacked about once a game this season and does a great job limiting mistakes. Stidham can scramble some, but the consistent trend you see in his starts is a ton of passes to running backs as a way to combat that pressure.
In his two Denver starts, 21 of Stidham's 66 passes went to a running back, nearly one-third of them! He also targeted running backs on eight of his preseason passes this season in about one game's worth of action.
New England's defense ranked in the bottom five in fantasy points allowed to RBs this season, but top five in RB receptions allowed. Twelve times this season a RB caught at least three passes against the Patriots, including seven times with at least five catches.
That means it's time to invest in Denver rookie RB R.J. Harvey, especially with J.K. Dobbins out at least one more game.
Harvey caught five passes last week for 46 yards on six targets, continuing an upward trend. He's seen at least four targets in six of his last seven games with 3+ catches in five of those and now 11-of-18 games on the season.
In those 11 games with 3+ receptions, Harvey has at least 14 receiving yards every game and at least 18 in all but one, so play Harvey to go Over 17.5 receiving yards at bet365.
He's averaging 33 YPG in those 11 games, so play 30+ yards at +230, and take the escalator to 40+ yards at +450 (both bet365), a number he's hit in 36% of his games with at least three catches, including last week against Buffalo.
Pick: Broncos +4.5 (-118)
Other Bets to Consider:
- RJ Harvey Over 17.5 Rec. Yards (-112, DraftKings)
- RJ Harvey 30+ Rec. Yards (+230, bet365)
- RJ Harvey 40+ Rec. Yards (+450, bet365)
Rams vs Seahawks Prop Picks
This game is awesome and may well be the actual Super Bowl.
Neither team has lost a game by more than a touchdown all season, and this is the league's No. 1 scoring offense against the No. 1 defense. It's the best DVOA matchup in the history of the metric!
Both earlier matchups were electric and among the games of the season, and I've had both these teams clearly ahead of the rest of the NFL for half the season now.
I've had the Rams firmly ahead of Seattle for most of that stretch, but there's reason to believe that gap is closing. The Rams are 0-2 ATS in the playoffs with a pair of three-point wins, both of which could have been losses.
Matthew Stafford played MVP ball all season, but hasn't looked the same in the playoffs. Is it the finger injury? The outdoor conditions? Whatever it is, a Rams offense that lapped the field all season long has not looked itself or close in the postseason.
Seattle has an enormous rest and health advantage here.
The Seahawks played a day earlier than the Rams, and they also played a snoozer and didn't have to expend full energy after coming off two full weeks of rest. The Rams never got a week off thanks to that last Seattle loss, and they're now coming off a long, cold overtime game.
Only two of the last 20 teams to make the Super Bowl got there without a rest week at some point before. This is the price the Rams pay for blowing that Seattle game — could all that attrition finally catch up to LA now?
The first time these teams played back in Week 11, Seattle's offense got exposed.
Before that, the Seahawks had made a living by loading the field with heavy personnel on early downs, baiting the opponent to match with extra men in the box, then beating them with the pass. Seattle led the league in passing DVOA through 10 games.
Then they played the Rams in Week 11, and Chris Shula's defense chose to play tendencies, not personnel. They stuck with light boxes and a ton of defensive backs in zone, and Sam Darnold was terrible, throwing four interceptions in the loss.
From that game forward, with other opponents copying the Rams and refusing to match heavy, Seattle's passing attack plummeted all the way to 25th in DVOA, in the bottom quarter of the league. The rushing attack improved from 21st to 6th during that stretch, and that seems good for the run-heaviest team in the league, but it's because opponents are content shutting down the pass instead.
The Rams rank third in EPA per play against the run and should hold their own against Seattle even without loading up the box, especially with Zach Charbonnet missing behind Kenneth Walker.
LA can also make life miserable for Sam Darnold. The Rams rank top-five in pressure rate and should make Darnold uncomfortable all game. They also play a very heavy zone, and Darnold is below league average against zone, compared to the top five against man. He threw six interceptions in the two Rams games this season — compared to eight against everyone else all season!
Even as the 1-seed, Seattle had the second-most giveaways in the NFL this season. They had 10 turnovers in their three losses.
If Seattle can give Darnold time, though, there's reason to believe Seattle can find some room to pass. The Rams pass defense has fallen apart over the past couple of months, and the corners are a clear weak spot. The linebackers may be, too, especially against Seattle's elite playaction. The Seahawks can find some explosive passes down the field against this defense.
On the other side of the ball, we get the elite Rams offense against the elite Seahawks defense. However, only one of those units has played like that recently.
The Rams offense has looked mostly average, and a lot of that is on Stafford's shoulders. Whether it's an injury or the outdoor conditions, this unit just hasn't looked in rhythm — maybe since that loss to Seattle.
The Rams have run the ball well all season, but sport one of the league's highest passing rates and have abandoned the run far too quickly against both the Panthers and Bears this postseason. Seattle's run defense is outstanding, even with so many defensive backs typically on the field.
The Seahawks are elite against playaction and motion, all those Sean McVay bells and whistles. They're also the second-best defense in the league at limiting explosive plays, so the Rams may not find many chunk plays.
They did put up almost 600 yards against Seattle in the last meeting, though, even without Davante Adams, and the Rams offensive line is a significant strength and finally healthy now.
Stafford has yet to be sacked in three games against Mike Macdonald's Seahawks defense, and if he gets time, he's going find Adams and Puka Nacua eventually.
Any angle in this game has a counter angle, and the truth is that we may not know right now just how much we should believe in either offense, nor in the Rams defense.
We do know Seattle's defense is great, and we also know the Seahawks will have a massive special teams advantage.
Watch starting field position in particular, which the Rams have fallen off in a huge way without K Joshua Karty, and where Seattle is best in the league. Those extra 10 or 15 yards of field position drive after drive add up, and in a game this close, special teams could be the difference.
Remember, No. 1 seeds in the Conference Championship are 21-5 SU since 2006 and 5-1 as anything under a field goal favorite.
The No. 1 scoring offense has met the No. 1 defense in the Conference Championship or later eight times since the merger. The defense has come out on top, going 7-1 SU in those matchups. This has also been a great round to back the favorite in a division matchup, with favorites 5-0 SU over the past two decades.
There's also ongoing concern about the Rams playing outdoors in a tough environment. Dome teams playing outdoors in the playoffs are 20-31-1 ATS (39%) the last couple of decades, with LA 0-2 in that spot this postseason, and it gets worse. Indoor teams playing the Conference Championship outdoors on the road are an ugly 0-15 SU since the merger.
This is such a close matchup that those little edges — Seattle's special teams, its home-field advantage where the Seahawks have won 11 straight playoff games with fans in the stands, and the rest and health advantages — might just be the difference.
I thought the Rams were the better team in the regular season, but I think this line is about right, given the spot. I'd be tempted to nibble Rams +3 if available at the key number, but will otherwise let our preseason +7000 Seahawks Super Bowl ticket ride — Seattle is the favorite after all.
Instead, I'm looking to invest with a flurry of props.
The two OPOY favorites face off here, although Jaxon Smith-Njigba has a much easier matchup than Puka Nacua. The Seahawks rank first by DVOA against WR1s, but the Rams are just below league average.
JSN found plenty of room against LA in the previous two matchups, racking up 9/105 and 8/96 on 25 targets.
He's had at least seven catches in 12-of-18 games, and it gets better. Four of those six times with six or fewer catches came in games Seattle won by 21 or more, like last week. He's had at least seven catches in 10 of Seattle's 12 other games.
This shouldn't be a blowout, and it's hard to see the Rams' corners shutting JSN down. Play Over 6.5 receptions at BetMGM (-105).
On the other side of the ball, look for Kyren Williams to be involved as a receiver. Seattle allowed the fewest fantasy points to RBs this season, but the most RB receptions.
Blake Corum had only eight catches all season, and Williams has been much more involved in the passing game lately. He averaged just 1.9 catches for 14.8 yards in the first 14 games but is up to 3.0/24.4 in the last five games, an increase of over 50%.
That fits the pattern in the two Seattle games, too. The first fell in that earlier stretch and saw just one Williams catch for five yards on two targets, but he had three catches on six targets for 15 yards in the rematch.
Williams has at least 11 receiving yards in all 13 games this season when he catches at least two passes, so we'll use yards as a proxy. Play Kyren Williams Over 11.5 receiving yards (BetRivers, -112), and put a portion of your bet on 30+ yards at +425 (bet365), a number he's hit in half his six games with at least three catches. Seattle has allowed a 30-yard RB receiver eight times already this season.
And then there are those Rams tight ends.
There's been a ton of talk all season about LA's 13 personnel — one back and three tight ends.
The Rams went away from their 13 personnel in the first Seattle game but used it for 62% of their snaps in the rematch, meaning over half the snaps on the season against Seattle. Then, LA went away from 13 again versus Chicago, playing just 9% of its snaps there, while typical TE1 Tyler Higbee played only eight snaps, fourth amongst Rams tight ends.
As good as Seattle's defense has been all season, it's been vulnerable against tight ends, ranking in the top five for most TE receptions allowed and top 10 for TE fantasy points.
The one Rams tight end getting consistent snaps right now is Colby Parkinson. He caught the game-winning TD against Carolina and had a similar late target against Chicago, and he's become a real go-to TD threat for Stafford.
Parkinson has scored nine touchdowns in his last 11 games, including one against Seattle. His anytime TD odds are way off at +425 (Hard Rock) and worth a play.
And you already know we're going back to the well on Terrance Ferguson.
We tried the longest reception escalator against Seattle in the first matchup, but Ferguson barely got on the field. Never wrong, just early? Ferguson had a career-high three catches for 33 yards in the rematch and scored a touchdown, and he had a 27-yard catch as well.
Ferguson is seeing consistent snaps now, about two-thirds of Rams snaps since the start of December, and those targets are getting more consistent too, with at least four in three straight games.
That's key because the rookie has caught only 44% of his passes on the season — in part because 21 of his 30 targets are deep passes on the year, 70% of them attacking downfield with Ferguson's speed. Four targets means more bites at the apple, because we likely only get one or two catches.
Ferguson has 12 catches this season. Three-fourths of them have gone for at least 18 yards, and half are 27+ yards. The catches are rare, but when they come, they're big plays.
That's why Ferguson's longest reception line of Over 10.5 yards at BetMGM (-115) is absurd. In eight games with a catch this season, Ferguson has at least a 19-yard catch in all but one of them! The line should be double that, which means 20+ longest catch is a no-brainer at +256 (DraftKings). We'll play 25+ too at +455 (DraftKings), a number he's hit in five of six games with at least three targets.
Sprinkle Ferguson touchdown too at +750 (Hard Rock). He's scored in two of the last three games, including against Seattle, and tight ends have caught eight of Stafford's last 14 touchdowns, over half. If you play both Ferguson and Parkinson, you get both of what look like the top Rams TEs together at around +225, a bargain price that could see both hit.
Room for one more prop? This is the most fun bet you can make this weekend.
Seattle made a big midseason trade for Rashid Shaheed and already saw the deal pay off when he returned the first play of Seattle's postseason for 95 yards and an opening kickoff TD against the 49ers.
Shaheed also ran twice for 27 yards, and that's been his role for Seattle. Less volume like with the Saints, and more of a Percy Harvin gadget role — special teams, deep passes, and a few runs.
Shaheed played nine snaps at RB last week, and he played 17 against the Rams. He should see even more such snaps with Charbonnet out. He's logged a rush nine times in 10 games with Seattle, with at least one in both Rams games — one of them for 31 yards.
I'm betting Rashid Shaheed Over 0.5 rushing yards (bet365).
He's cleared that line in six of 10 Seattle games (60%), and we really just need one run — or even a backward screen pass type play. A receiver has run for positive yardage in 9-of-19 Rams games, and the Seahawks were responsible for three of those — two by Shaheed.
And as fast as Shaheed is, we'd be crazy not to take the escalator. He had a 30-yard run just last week and a 31-yarder against the Rams earlier this season. Play 20+ rushing yards at +800 and then 30+ yards at +1500, both at bet365.
We may only get one shot at this all game, so let's hope Shaheed makes it count.
Pick: Jaxon Smith-Njigba Over 6.5 Receptions (-116)
Other Bets to Consider:
- Kyren Williams Over 11.5 Rec. Yards (-112, BetRivers)
- Kyren Williams 30+ Rec. Yards (+425, bet365)
- Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown (+425, Hard Rock)
- Terrance Ferguson Longest Reception Over 10.5 Yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Terrance Ferguson Longest Reception 20+ Yards (+256, DraftKings)
- Terrance Ferguson Longest Reception 25+ Yards (+455, DraftKings)
- Terrance Ferguson Anytime Touchdown (+750, Hard Rock)
- Rashid Shaheed Over 0.5 Rush Yards
Patriots vs Rams Super Bowl Lookahead Pick
I'm already on record multiple times recommending a bet on the NFC to win the Super Bowl at around -200 to -220.
Anyone would like either NFC team against Jarrett Stidham and the Broncos, but I've got both Seattle and Los Angeles far ahead of New England too — around five-point favorites in either case.
Seattle is listed at -3.5 in a hypothetical matchup against the Patriots, while the Rams are at -3 at DraftKings. That makes little sense to me, since I've had the Rams rated ahead of Seattle the entire home stretch, and it's hard to believe books will give us that key number for long.
LA's pass rush will be a big problem for the struggling Patriots line, and the Rams weapons are far better and more dangerous than New England's.
I'm grabbing Rams -3 against the Patriots while it's available. It'll never dip below that, and that key number probably won't be there if this is the Super Bowl matchup we end up getting.
Pick: Rams -3 (-110)
Brandon's Conference Championship Sunday Betting Card
- Broncos -4.5 (-118; DraftKings)
- R.J. Harvey Over 17.5 Rec. Yards (-112, DraftKings)
- R.J. Harvey 30+ Rec. Yards (+230, bet365)
- R.J. Harvey 40+ Rec. Yards (+450, bet365)
- Kyren Williams Over 11.5 Rec. Yards (-112, BetRivers)
- Kyren Williams 30+ Rec. Yards (+425, bet365)
- Colby Parkinson Anytime Touchdown (+425, Hard Rock)
- Terrance Ferguson Longest Reception Over 10.5 Yards (-115, BetMGM)
- Terrance Ferguson Longest Reception 20+ Yards (+256, DraftKings)
- Terrance Ferguson Longest Reception 25+ Yards (+455, DraftKings)
- Terrance Ferguson Anytime Touchdown (+750, Hard Rock)
- Rashid Shaheed Over 0.5 Rush Yards
