The New England Patriots take on the Denver Broncos in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 25. Kickoff from Empower Field is set for 3:00 p.m. ET. The game will broadcast live on CBS.
Our player props for this AFC Championship game target Hunter Henry, TreVeyon Henderson, Jarrett Stidham, and Wil Lutz.
Let's dive into my Patriots vs Broncos player props for the AFC Championship Game.
Patriots vs Broncos Player Props
- Hunter Henry Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- TreVeyon Henderson Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at Hard Rock)
- Jarrett Stidham Over 197.5 Passing Yards (-118 at Unibet)
- Wil Lutz Over 1.5 Field Goals (-135 at DraftKings)
Patriots vs Broncos Prop Picks, Preview
Hunter Henry Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
It’s been a strong season for Hunter Henry, who has topped 800 yards and eight touchdowns up until this point. His receiving yards line for this game sits at 41.5 yards, and the over looks very appealing.
Across the full season he’s averaged a consistent 44 yards per game, and despite only catching one pass for five yards against the Texans in the Divisional Round, he’s worth backing here.
Henry's had 42 or more yards in three of his past four games, and has hit that mark 10 times across the season. This is a great Broncos defense, but if they have a weakness, it’s against tight ends, to whom they gave up 59.7 yards per game in the regular season — just under half of what they gave up to the WR position.
Pick: Hunter Henry Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114; FanDuel)
TreVeyon Henderson Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Both Patriots running backs offer value in the rushing yards market this week, but it’s TreVeyon Henderson who interests me since his line is as low as 33.5 yards in some places.
Despite looking like he’d taken hold of the backfield from Rhamondre Stevenson, that’s reverted over the past month. Henderson's only had 21 carries across the past two weeks compared to 26 for Stevenson.
However, there are a few things in Henderson's favor.
Firstly, the usage isn’t that much different to his fellow RB, and I’m happy to take the 1B to Stevenson’s 1A. The Broncos gave up 183 yards on the ground to the Bills last time out, so the one-two punch of the Patriots can both feast here.
We also need to factor in Henderson’s big-play ability; he’s the more dynamic of the duo and if he can find a crease, then he could easily blow this line open in just one carry. If the Patriots are leading, which I believe they will be, then they’re likely to try and eat the clock by running the ball.
Pick: TreVeyon Henderson Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110; Hard Rock)
Jarrett Stidham Over 197.5 Passing Yards (-118)
Losing Bo Nix is a real problem for the Broncos and the reason that I believe they’ll lose this game.
It’s hard to project Jarrett Stidham when we have so little track record of him as a starter, let alone as one in Denver. However, he did finish with 224 and 272 passing yards in his last two starts, which came at the end of the 2023 season.
While I don’t have much data on Stidham, there is plenty of data to support this offensive line being amongst the very best in football. They’re very efficient at pass blocking and gave up just 137 regular season pressures.
If they can keep Stidham upright, then he has a very real chance of eclipsing this line, especially with Sean Payton's game script likely to rely upon him throwing the ball.
Pick: Jarrett Stidham Over 197.5 Passing Yards (-118; Unibet)
Wil Lutz Over 1.5 Field Goals (-135)
Heading into this game, Wil Lutz has successfully converted 32-of-36 field-goal attempts this season. On 10 occasions he’s made two or more field goals in a game, including the previous four games in a row, with four field goals against the Bills in the Divisional Round.
This is less a bet on Lutz and more of a bet on the Broncos offense struggling to put up the numbers that they usually do with Nix under center.
The Broncos offense ranked 10th in EPA per play with Nix, but that’s likely to drop, and they’ll look to just keep their side of the scoreboard ticking up.
Pick: Wil Lutz Over 1.5 Field Goals (-135; DraftKings)
Editor's Note: A parlay of these props is not the author's formal recommendation. These picks have value as straight bets.
Patriots vs Broncos Player Props
- Hunter Henry Over 41.5 Receiving Yards (-114 at FanDuel)
- TreVeyon Henderson Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-110 at Hard Rock)
- Jarrett Stidham Over 197.5 Passing Yards (-118 at Unibet)
- Wil Lutz Over 1.5 Field Goals (-135 at DraftKings)
