The New England Patriots (16-3) and Denver Broncos (15-3) face off in the AFC Championship Game on Sunday, Jan. 25. Kickoff is set for 3:00 p.m. ET from Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colo. The game will broadcast on CBS.
The Patriots are favored by -4.5 on the spread over the Broncos, with an over/under of 42.5 points. The Patriots are -218 favorites to win on the moneyline, while the Broncos are +180 underdogs.
Let's get into my Patriots vs Broncos predictions in my AFC Championship Game preview.
Patriots vs Broncos Prediction
- Patriots vs Broncos pick: Broncos +3.5 1st half spread OR Broncos +4.5
My Patriots vs Broncos best bet is the Broncos to cover the first-half spread. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Patriots vs Broncos Odds
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | -218 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 42.5 -115o / -105u | +180 |
Patriots vs Broncos AFC Championship Game Preview
When the Patriots Have the Ball
Drake Maye has quickly established himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL in just his second season.
After overcoming two tough tests against the Chargers and Texans in the first two rounds of the playoffs, he now faces another difficult matchup against the Broncos — not to mention this will be his first playoff game on the road.
The Broncos rank 2nd in pressure rate on the season, and while Maye has been excellent under pressure this year with a league-high 8.8 yards per attempt, ball security has been an issue. He was strip-sacked six times during the regular season, the 4th most in the league, and he has already lost two fumbles on five strip sacks through his first two playoff games.
I expect the Broncos to try to exploit this weakness. With their high pressure rate, they should place an emphasis on stripping the ball on any sack opportunity, as this has clearly been Maye’s biggest flaw and one that could lead to field-flipping, game-changing plays.
That risk could be amplified on the road, where crowd noise may impact Maye’s ability to shift protections or communicate at the line, potentially leading to more sack and strip-sack chances. This is especially concerning given that Denver had four players record 7+ sacks this season, meaning pressure can come from anywhere. The Denver defense seems perfectly equipped to attack Maye’s lone weakness.
The Patriots' run game — spearheaded by Rhamondre Stevenson and TreVeyon Henderson — could also struggle to get going against a Broncos defense that ranks 3rd in DVOA against the run and, as I highlighted last week, received a boost from LB Dre Greenlaw’s return. He was eased back in with a 40% snap rate against the Bills, but I would expect him to have closer to a full-time role today.
This could be a game where the Patriots struggle to move the ball as efficiently as usual in a hostile road environment and, with Bo Nix out, may opt for a more conservative approach early on given the uncertainty around how effective the Broncos offense will be with Jarrett Stidham under center.
When the Broncos Have the Ball
The big story in the lead up to the AFC Championship Game is the top-seeded Broncos lost starting QB Bo Nix for the remainder of the playoffs, leaving Jarrett Stidham to step in and try to lead Denver to two wins and a Super Bowl title.
The market moved roughly six points following the Nix news, and while there is clearly a drop-off from Nix to Stidham, I think the market overreacted to just how large that downgrade actually is.
Stidham has made just four starts over the last three seasons and owns a +0.02 EPA per dropback over that span, which would rank 17th out of 33 qualified QBs this season, essentially league average. For reference, Bo Nix ranked 13th in EPA per dropback.
There is no perfect QB metric, but by most measures Stidham profiles as a solid backup, and the downgrade from Nix feels closer to 2-3 points rather than the 5-6 points the market appears to have priced in.
While we don’t have many recent regular-season starts to evaluate, we do have a meaningful preseason sample from this year, where Stidham played extremely well. He finished 30-of-38 for 376 yards with four touchdowns and zero interceptions. His 9.9 yards per attempt ranked 2nd out of 81 qualified QBs, and nearly every other metric told a similar story.
Preseason numbers, of course, should always be taken with caution, but when evaluating a QB with limited recent regular-season data, it’s still information worth considering. Most of it suggests Stidham is better than the market believes.
The Broncos also have strong infrastructure around him, with a quality offensive line and an elite defense, exactly the type of environment that can support a backup QB. It’s fair to say Denver earned the 1-seed because it is a solid, well-rounded team, not solely because of Nix.
This matchup is also not overly imposing at this stage of the playoffs.
The Patriots ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA and 17th against the run during the regular season, though the run defense has improved recently with Milton Williams returning after missing five straight games. I’m interested to see whether Broncos head coach Sean Payton sticks with a pass-heavy approach — Denver ranked 4th in pass rate over expected on the season — or leans more on the run with Stidham under center.
The Broncos may also get RB J.K. Dobbins back this week, as he returned to practice, which could further encourage a more balanced game plan, even against a Patriots defense that profiles as more of a pass funnel. Either way, this feels like a game where Denver will rely heavily on its defense.
Patriots vs Broncos Prediction, Betting Analysis
I’m on the Broncos here because I think the line move from Bo Nix to Jarrett Stidham was far too aggressive. I still believe the Patriots should be favorites and probably closer to -3, with the most likely outcome being a Pats win by exactly three points.
Denver’s defense is well suited to attack Drake Maye’s strip-sack issue, and one or two field-flipping plays could set Stidham up with short fields. Combined with a QB-friendly offensive line, that makes Denver a strong home underdog.
The specific market I targeted was the first half.
Earlier in the week, the Broncos were +3.5 in the 1st half, and while many books have since moved that down to +2.5, the +3.5 is still available in alternate spread markets. I locked it in at -131. Getting such a key number for just half the game, at nearly the same price as the full-game spread, felt like the sharper way to attack this.
If the price has moved to -140 or worse at your book, I would pivot to Broncos +4.5 for the full game. But I think Denver’s best chance to cover comes from keeping things close early. It would be much harder for them to rely on a late backdoor cover with Stidham after the Patriots have a full half to see him and adjust.
In that sense, Denver may actually have a sneaky first-half edge, as the Patriots won’t fully know what to expect. Sean Payton, meanwhile, had the entire week to prep knowing Stidham would start, giving him ample time to prepare and game plan accordingly.
I also took this a step further and sprinkled on Stidham to win Super Bowl MVP at 20/1 earlier in the week, just in case he pulls off the upset here and follows a Nick Foles–type path. The stage is set for Stidham to become one of the most fascinating stories of the season, and I think the market is offering too much value for a QB who appears capable of stepping up in such a critical moment against the team that drafted him back in 2019.
Pick: Broncos +3.5 1st half spread (-139 or better) OR Broncos +4.5 (full game)
Spread
As I noted above, the line move following Bo Nix's injury was too aggressive, in my opinion. I have the Patriots something closer to 3-point favorites.
Accordingly, I like the Broncos +3.5 on the 1st half spread. Broncos +4.5 over the full game is also playable if the 1st half spread moves to -140 or worse.
Moneyline
I have no play for either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
I have no bet for the game total.
