The NFL Playoffs have reached the Conference Championship round.
The Denver Broncos sidestepped the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Divisional Round in overtime, but it came at the price of their quarterback Bo Nix, who fractured his ankle. They will go on to face Drake Maye and the New England Patriots, who defeated the Houston Texans.
On the other side, the Seattle Seahawks host the Los Angeles Rams after both teams defeated the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears, respectively.
Below, you can find my AFC and NFC Championship Game picks.
NFL Predictions — Conference Championship
| Table of Contents |
|---|
| Patriots vs Broncos |
| Rams vs Seahawks |
Patriots vs Broncos
| Patriots Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -105 | 42.5 -118o / -102u | -225 |
| Broncos Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -115 | 42.5 -118o / -102u | +185 |
It's certainly not unheard of for a backup quarterback to lead his team to glory in the NFL playoffs. In fact, Rex Grossman proved that even a below-average QB can find a way to the Super Bowl. The question for me is just how good this offense around Jarrett Stidham is, and how much of a liability he will be.
For his career, Stidham has thrown eight interceptions to eight touchdowns. He's thrown a total of just 197 passes in his seven-year career for an unassuming 59.4% completion percentage, and while those numbers took a slight bump when he left New England, his brutal 8.8% sack rate hasn't budged.
Now, the Patriots have a very average pass rush, ranking 16th in sack rate and 16th in PFF's rating scale. They won't have their regular-season sacks leader in Harold Landry III here, either.
Denver can counter with arguably the league's best offensive line in pass protection, and one which helped Bo Nix limit his sack rate to just over 3% this year — an excellent mark.
If we take that to mean he'll have time in the pocket — something he's rarely had in his career — what can Stidham do? This is a pass-heavy Broncos offense, but it's one built around short throws with a young and growing Nix under center. New England is just 14th in interception rate, too, so I do think the chances Stidham throws the game away are slim.
When you further bake in the fact that New England's run defense has sputtered in the last two months and the secondary has allowed a bundle of completions, albeit for minimal gains, I do think Denver's offense can find a way to get points on the board.
Behind a defense that's been rock solid against the run and should slow the Pats' offense, I think you have to hold your nose and go with the Broncos as home dogs.
Verdict: Bet Broncos +4.5 (-115)
Click here to return to the table of contents.
Rams vs Seahawks
| Rams Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +120 |
| Seahawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -142 |
The Rams have been fortunate to come away with five turnovers through two games during these playoffs. That's what's really held the team together.
It's not like their defense has been terrible; they've allowed roughly 5.2 yards per play, right in line with their 5.2 yards per play during the regular season, which ranked 13th. They also committed nine penalties for 83 yards in the wild-card round, which helped the Panthers put up 31 points, but committed just one against the Bears last weekend.
I don't know, I just don't get that juggernaut feel that I had a month ago about this team. L.A. went into Chicago and came away a lucky winner, putting up a dreadful 4.4 yards per play against a solid defense. Now, it's going to have to face the best defense in the league, one which has allowed just 16.6 points per game and 4.5 yards per play — each ranked atop the NFL.
You can expect to see plenty of passing in this one from L.A., which ranks 13th in pass-play rate, and that could wind up being trouble with Seattle, ranked sixth in interception rate.
Matthew Stafford has only been picked once during these playoffs, but he has compiled six turnover-worthy plays according to PFF, with his 6.4% clip ranking third-worst among the 13 QBs we've seen.
I don't think the Rams' offense is going to get any reprieve going against an even mightier secondary than the Bears', and with the ground game virtually nonexistent, there's no chance they can move the ball that way against this run defense.
Now, the Seahawks may have two members of the offensive line missing in action, but it's not like this Rams defense has ratcheted into gear during the playoffs. They've been the same, at best, but to me, they've been a shade worse than they were during their glorious regular-season run.
The Seahawks have just run the ball down everyone's throats all season, and they draw a defense ranked 16th in yards per carry. The Rams do force a lot of turnovers, so the five through two games aren't surprising, and the Seahawks do rank second-worst in giveaways per game.
With that said, they're 14th in turnover margin and we've covered above why Stafford should be in just as much danger of making a mistake as Sam Darnold. There shouldn't be much of a reason to air it out all game long, however, like there is on the other side of the ball — and I think that makes the difference.
Verdict: Bet Seahawks ML (-140)
Click here to return to the table of contents.
