The Super Bowl is looming, but first we have the NFL Conference Championships on Sunday with Patriots vs Broncos in the AFC Championship Game and Rams vs Seahawks in the NFC Championship Game.
- For more NFL playoff coverage, check out our Patriots vs Broncos preview, which includes five picks for Sunday's AFC showdown.
Below, I have laid out my NFL player props for Patriots vs Broncos and Rams vs Seahawks. Bookmark this page or follow me in the Action App as I continue to drop props for NFL Championship Sunday.
Patriots vs Broncos Player Props
Kayshon Boutte Under 2.5 Receptions (-110)
Running this back after it lost by 0.5 last week, with the final dagger being the 32-yard catch by Boutte against Derek Stingley in coverage on a great throw by Drake Maye.
The same logic remains. While I do expect the Maye–Boutte connection to continue operating above a league-average catch rate on downfield passes, Boutte is still due for at least some regression after posting a league-high +21% catch rate over expected, according to NextGenStats.
There’s also a decent chance he lines up across from shutdown corner Pat Surtain II, and the two have exchanged some public comments that at least qualify as mild bulletin-board material.
Even if it stays tame, that matchup alone could make it tougher for Boutte to draw targets. On top of that, Mack Hollins has a decent chance to return this week.
His return shouldn’t impact Boutte’s playing time much, but it could siphon off some of the downfield targets Boutte has seen at a higher rate since Hollins went down.
Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry are also coming off down games, and I’m projecting both to see an uptick in target rate, which makes it tougher for Boutte to draw five targets again like he did last week.
I’m still not interested in fading his yardage prop. When Boutte does haul in passes, he makes them count. But I have him projected closer to 2.2 receptions, with around a 62% chance to stay under 2.5.
K'Lavon Chaisson Under 2.5 Tackles + Assists (+119)
Chaisson has cleared this in both playoff games so far, largely because he’s racked up sacks. He had one last week and two against the Chargers in the Wild Card round.
However, the Broncos have been the fourth-toughest matchup for edge rushers, largely due to Bo Nix being one of the hardest QBs to take down.
Denver has allowed the third-lowest pressure rate, which is mostly an offensive line stat, as it has one of the better offensive lines in the league. On top of that, Nix posted the second-lowest pressure-to-sack rate on the season, which is much more of a QB-driven metric.
Jarrett Stidham is more likely to be around league average in that area, with a career pressure-to-sack rate of 19.6%.
My tackle and sack model does factor in that increase in expected sack rate against Stidham compared to Nix, but I’m still expecting this OL to make it difficult to generate consistent pressure. As a result, I’m only projecting Chaisson with around a 40% chance to record a sack here.
That’s critical at this number, because he’s only cleared 2.5 tackles in three of the nine games where he failed to get a sack. Even when he does get a sack, it hasn’t guaranteed he clears this number.
Chaisson's still stayed under 2.5 in five of the nine games where he recorded a sack. In the two games where he had multiple sacks, he finished with exactly three tackles in each. If he had only one sack in those games, he would have stayed under. That really highlights how often Chaisson sits under this number, even in strong sack performances.
The reason is simple. He isn’t very involved in run defense, as he’s only mixed in on 7% of run plays with a tackle. That gives him roughly 1.3 projected run tackles.
Even if I give him a full sack in the projection, he still comes in under 2.5. He has mixed in on six tackles on receptions all season, but even factoring in the small chance he gets one here, that can easily be offset by him failing to record a sack.
All of this leads my tackle model to give Chaisson around a 60% chance to stay under 2.5, and I’m surprised we’re getting this at +119.
Rams vs Seahawks Player Props
DeMarcus Lawrence Under 3.5 Tackles + Assists (-127)
If you remove Week 4, wheb he left the game early, Lawrence has only cleared this number in six of 16 games this season. He’s also been fairly opponent-dependent.
He’s cleared this in four of eight matchups against teams that rank in the top half of the league in tackle opportunities for EDGE rushers, but only two of eight against teams that rank in the bottom half.
The Rams rank dead last in that metric, and by a fairly wide margin. There are a few reasons for that.
Matthew Stafford is tough to sack, having been sacked just 23 times, and he rarely scrambles. Most of his dropbacks end in pass attempts, which are the plays with the lowest chance of an edge rusher mixing in on a tackle.
The Rams also use a lot of heavy personnel, sometimes with three tight ends on the field, which can crowd the line of scrimmage and allow other positions to mix in more.
Both Blake Corum and Kyren Williams run inside at a very high rate, which funnels tackles toward the interior defensive line, and both rank in the top three in success rate, so not many of their runs get stuffed for minimal gains, which is where EDGE rushers tend to show up more often. As a result, the Rams tend to funnel tackles to corners and safeties.
Sure enough, Lawrence has had a two-tackle game and a nine-tackle game against the Rams. That 9-tackle outburst was by far his highest total in a game this season.
Those types of things can happen in tackle markets, especially when a player is mixing in on a lot of four-to-five yard runs as he did against Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Tackles, like every stat, come with game-to-game variance based on opportunity.
This will be Lawrence’s third matchup against the Rams, and given how few tackle opportunities they typically provide to EDGE rushers, I’m expecting his tackle rate to come back down to earth here. I’m hoping that the nine-tackle game was simply an outlier, both for Lawrence and for the Rams, allowing an opposing EDGE rusher to nearly reach double-digit tackles.
I’m projecting him closer to 3.1 tackles, with around a 63% chance he stays under 3.5.
Rashid Shaheed Under 25.5 Receiving Yards (-118)
Shaheed has struggled to make much of an impact in Seattle’s passing attack since being traded midseason by the Saints. In New Orleans, he operated as the clear No. 2 WR behind Chris Olave.
In Seattle, he’s typically been the No. 3 WR behind Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Cooper Kupp. JSN commands a massive target share, which has capped Shaheed’s upside in this offense, and Shaheed has also been running routes on only about 65% of dropbacks most weeks.
With backup TE Elijah Arroyo returning and Seattle dealing with multiple injuries at LT, I could see them using more 2TE or heavier personnel looks, which is when Shaheed tends to come off the field.
Backup RB Zach Charbonnet is also out, which could lead to Seattle designing a few more rush attempts for Shaheed, as he’s usually good for one-to-two carries per game.
Shaheed has a wide range of outcomes, as he can clear this number with a single catch and could easily go for 80+ yards if he breaks a long one.
That’s always the risk when fading such an explosive player. But he now has as many return TDs (2) over the last four games as he does receptions (2), and we’ve been seeing him hit his floor at a much higher rate recently.
I’m projecting his median closer to 17.5 yards, with around a 62% chance he stays under 24.5. If he does clear this, it’ll likely be by a lot.
That’s why I’m much more comfortable fading him in this market, where his median outcome is much lower. When I invest in Shaheed overs, I usually prefer his alt yardage lines.
Shaheed has been one of my favorite players over the years because he often comes through when I’m on his over(s), but this is probably the first time I’ve actually faded him.
Based on his recent usage, that’s where I think the play is. He can still make impact plays in the run or return game, just hopefully not in the passing game.
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
