NFL Prop Bets & Picks: 4 Player Props To Bet For Sunday’s Late Games
Bobby Ellis/Getty Images. Pictured: Zach Pascal
Editor's note: We've moved props for games that kick off in the 4 p.m. ET window to the top of this story.
NFL player prop bets can offer a ton of value. I've identified 12 that are offering value for Sunday's main slate based on my Week 3 player projections.
Let's jump right in.
Week 3 NFL Prop Bets
Click on a game to skip ahead.
Jets at Colts Props
Zach Pascal Over 30.5 Receiving Yards (-110) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Parris Campbell is out with a season-threatening knee injury, which will result in Pascal and Michael Pittman Jr. getting a boost in target share.
I have Pascal's median projection closer to 35.5. Bet to 33.5
Panthers at Chargers Props
Joshua Kelley Under 13.5 Receiving Yards (-110) [Bet now at FanDuel]
I'm having some fun with a pair of random Chargers props.
First up is Kelley's receiving yards under. He caught a pair of passes for 49 yards last week, but he'll typically concede passing work to Austin Ekeler. Last week's game script was a bit different against the Chiefs and I expect the Chargers to be leading the Panthers for much of Sunday's game.
Kelley would likely need two catches to clear this number. Bet no further than 13.5, to -150 juice
Jalen Guyton Over 13.5 Receiving Yards (-115) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Guyton has run a route on 68% of pass plays in each of the first two games. I expect him to continue that level of playing time, while only seeing the occasional target.
His box scores so far are only 1/16/0 and 1/14/0, but his underlying data leads me to believe he is much more likely to secure two receptions or more before a game where he is shutout.
I'll bite on the over here. Bet no further than 13.5, up to -140 juice
D.J. Moore Over 63.5 Receiving Yards (-115) [Bet now at PointsBet]
Moore's 47.6% target share is fourth in the NFL. The loss of Christian McCaffrey will only help Moore sustain his high weekly target floor. His catch rate of 54.5% makes sense when you see that only 59% of his targets have been catchable.
Teddy Bridgewater is a pretty accurate passer, and his on-target percentage of 81.3% ranks third out of 37 quarterbacks dating back to last season, so Moore's receptions should only increase as he gets more "catchable" targets. Bet to 65.5
The following games kicked off at 1 p.m. ET.
Raiders at Patriots Props
Cam Newton Under 254.5 Passing Yards (-112) [Bet now at DraftKings]
Newton should be able to move the ball with ease against the Raiders this week, however, the Patriots are likely to play with a lead for much of this game as 6-point favorites (find real-time NFL odds here) and they have the second-highest run rate with the lead this season (65%).
That's why this prop is way too high.
Newton threw for 155 yards in their Week 1 win, then 397 in their Week 2 loss. I think we can expect that trend to hold, which is why I like getting the under here.
I would set this line closer to 235.5. Bet to 246.5
Josh Jacobs Over 15.5 Receiving Yards (-110) [Bet now at BetMGM]
It's always risky betting the over on a Jacobs receiving prop since Jon Gruden is going to use Devontae Booker and Jalen Richard quite a bit on passing downs. But Jacobs has run a route on 46% of pass plays this season despite seeing 25 or more carries in each of their two wins, which leads me to believe he should be a good bet for three catches in what should be a negative game script. Bet to 18.5
Rams at Bills Props
Tyler Higbee Under 4.5 Receptions (+110)
Higbee had a monster Week 2 performance in which he caught three touchdowns, but his underlying usage has been fairly low. He's run a route on only 59% of pass plays this year, averaging 4.5 targets a game. His 89% catch rate is unsustainable, which is why there's quite a bit of value here.
The Rams are sixth in time of possession this season, facing a Bills team that is third. Expect both teams to play a bit of keep away, which will also lend to the under here. Bet no further than 4.5, up to -110 juice
Texans at Steelers Props
Darren Fells Under 21.5 Receiving Yards (-112)
It's once again time to bet the under on Fells.
Jordan Akins has run a route on 82% of pass plays this season, while Fells is at 25%. I would set his receptions prop at 1.5 with a 50/50 chance of going over. Even if Fells were to finish with two receptions, there's still a 30-40% chance this prop would go under.
Fells will need quite a lot of things to go his way to end with three or more receptions. Bet to 19.5
49ers at Giants Props
Jerick McKinnon Under 61.5 Rush Yards (-110) [Bet now at BetMGM]
I honestly think oddsmakers meant for this to be either McKinnon's total scrimmage yards, or for this line to be for Jeff Wilson. The 49ers will likely use Wilson as the early down back, with McKinnon set to dominate the passing downs.
McKinnon has a decent chance of seeing 10 or more carries this week, but 61.5 yards is a very aggressive number. Bet to 53.5
Darius Slayton Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-112) [Bet now at DraftKings]
Sterling Shepard and Saquon Barkley are both out, so Slayton should pick up a few more targets this week. The 49ers defense is decimated, which makes the matchup less imposing as well. Bet to 52.5
Brandon Aiyuk Over 35.5 Receiving Yards (-110) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Aiyuk had a quiet NFL debut last week, going for 2/21/0. However, he ran a route on 80% of dropbacks and will see his target share rise from now on. Nick Mullens has shown he is more than capable of filling in for Jimmy G, and Aiyuk should be his No. 2 or 3 target this week.
His big-play ability should help him clear this number. Bet to 38.5
Bengals at Eagles Props
A.J. Green Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-112) [Bet now at BetMGM]
Green could be in a steep decline at 32 years old after missing about 1.5 years of action. He could also be due for some positive regression in Week 3.
Both can be true. I was expecting at least some rust from Green to begin the season anyways.
He's currently fifth in the league in terms of air yards share at 43.4%. It's almost impossible that he won't improve on his 36.4% catch rate, and I view this as a buy-low opportunity. Bet to 55.5
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- FanDuel: Bet $10, Win $150 on the Chiefs or Ravens moneyline
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