Every week of the NFL regular season, bettors can find matchups to exploit, whether it's a game spread, total, or player props. I'm here specifically to talk about the NFL anytime touchdown props for Week 17 on Sunday, December 28.
Last season, I picked Anytime TD props for every Sunday afternoon game and finished 123-269 (31.4%), with +44.1 units in profit for an 11% ROI.
If you plan to tail these Week 17 TD bets, please use proper bankroll management. For players listed as “Verdict,” those are 1-unit bets. If a player is listed in “Verdict” as a “Sprinkle,” then it would be a 0.2-unit wager, as those are typically long shots.
Let's break down my NFL anytime touchdown picks for Sunday of Week 17.
NFL Week 17 Anytime Touchdown Scorers
| Picks |
|---|
| Seahawks vs Panthers |
| Cardinals vs Bengals |
| Steelers vs Browns |
| Jaguars vs Colts |
| Buccaneers vs Dolphins |
| Patriots vs Jets |
| Saints vs Titans |
| Giants vs Raiders |
| Eagles vs Bills |
Seahawks vs. Panthers
After a slow start with injuries, we’re starting to see the potential of WR Jalen Coker in the Panthers' offense. He’s out-snapped and ran more routes than WR Xavier Legette over the last three games while scoring two touchdowns.
Coker tends to play out of the slot more, and if the Seahawks' defense has any weakness, it’s to slot receivers, ranking in the bottom half of the league to receivers over the middle compared to top-five to outside receivers.
You can try the TE-roulette route with Ja’Tavion Sanders, Tommy Tremble and Mitchell Evans, but I think it’s Coker’s stock that we should be investing in for Week 17.
I’ve bet on AJ Barner a lot this season, and while it’s had some moments, his involvement in the Seahawks offense is too hard to pass on when he’s +200 or better.
Barner scored last week against the Rams and has been the clear second receiving option behind WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba for Seattle this season.
Now, we know JSN will get the lions' share of targets, but Barner has a decent edge in that he’s the short-range tush-push option for the Seahawks, while also ranking second in red-zone route-rate and red-zone target rate.
Like the Rams, the Panthers play a lot of zone and Cover 3, and Barner tends to see a target bump against those coverages. So, we’ll run it back.
Verdict: Jalen Coker +375 | AJ Barner +220
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Cardinals vs. Bengals
This game has video-game prices for TD scorers, especially on the Bengals' side. WR Ja’Marr Chase is upwards of -150 to score, while WR2 Tee Higgins is +100 or lower, which makes sense facing the Cardinals, but it's awful value.
Arizona’s defense has been wearing down as the season goes along and repeatedly giving up explosive plays, which then makes them have to go in pass mode for the majority of second halves.
There’s not really any huge edges on the Bengals' side to make it worth it this week, even in a game where they could score 40+ points.
On the other side, I know it’s super chalky, but let's keep it simple and take Cardinals TE Trey McBride.
The Cardinals have made it perfectly clear that they’re going to target him 10+ times per game with QB Jacoby Brissett under center, and the most-obvious matchup to exploit when facing the Bengals is their weakness vs. TEs.
Cincinnati has allowed the most TDs to TEs this year and hasn't shown much improvement or enthusiasm to change it.
If this game goes into shootout mode, McBride might get spammed for 15+ targets, and if Ja’Marr Chase is minus-odds to score in this game, McBride should be too.
Verdict: Trey McBride +125 | Pass on Bengals
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Steelers vs. Browns
Another Browns game, another week where I’m betting TE Harold Fannin Jr at +300 or better. The rookie TE is coming off a two-touchdown game against the Bills and has scored four TDs total over the last four games.
Fannin has clearly been the top target in this offense regardless of starting QB, and with Sanders under center, he leads the Browns in targets-per-route-run and doubles WR1 Jerry Jeudy in target share and first read targets. He IS the Browns passing offense.
Facing the Steelers, who rank 24th in defensive DVOA vs. TEs with 10 TDs allowed to the position, I’m surprised sportsbooks are still listing Fannin’s TD odds at +250 or better, given his recent output and the positive matchup.
Now, my general rule is to NOT bet an interception on a QB that I like for a passing TD, as they generally don’t correlate.
That being said, Browns QB Shedeur Sanders has been turning the ball over way too much for me to ignore it. So, I’m going to break my rule and take the Steelers' defense/special teams to score a TD in Week 17.
Sanders already has eight interceptions in five games played, and the Steelers are an opportunistic type of defense with their man coverage and single-high safety to generate turnovers.
Another angle for why I like the defensive TD is if the Browns offense can’t get going and find themselves backed up in their own territory for the majority of the game, all it takes is a careless fumble or a strip sack to see the Steelers running it back for a TD.
With the Browns also not having star rookie RB Quinshon Judkins for this matchup, the run game may be stifled even more, causing turnover issues for Sanders.
If you really want to get spicy, you can go with the Steelers DEFENSE TD at +1000 (FanDuel), but I think getting the D/ST angle at +450 still offers the best value and gives you another path to a winning ticket.
Verdict: Steelers Defense/Special Teams +450 | Harold Fannin +320
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Jaguars vs. Colts
The Jaguars' receiving corps has gotten a huge boost with the arrival of WR Jakobi Meyers, but it’s been hard to ignore the production of WR Parker Washington this year.
With all the turnover at WR for the Jaguars, Washington has been a consistent source of production all season with four receiving TDs and two kick-return TDs, while playing whatever role the Jaguars need.
Washington has taken over the WR3 role from Tim Patrick, and facing the Colts, he could be a nice dump-off option for QB Trevor Lawrence if Indy sells out to slow down Meyers and Brian Thomas Jr.
I love that we got to see QB Philip Rivers be a gunslinger on Monday Night Football, but I’m a bit dubious of a repeat performance against the Jaguars.
Jacksonville’s pass defense is a huge step up from the 49ers, and while I do think Rivers will have some success, I’m not looking at this matchup for a lot of Colts passing TDs.
Of all the options available, I’m looking at WR Josh Downs this week.
The Colts have been running a lot of three-WR sets in Rivers' two starts, with Downs running nearly as many routes as someone like Michael Pittman or Tyler Warren, and leads the team in first-read target share.
With 14 targets and a TD in two games with Rivers, I like Downs to continue to rack up targets and score another TD.
Verdict: Parker Washington +275 | Josh Downs +320
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Buccaneers vs. Dolphins
It’s pretty chalky, but I’m running Bucs WR Mike Evans TD props into the ground. We bet him last week against the Panthers at +180, and he scored in the first quarter while seeing nine targets.
His snap rate and routes run rate both saw a jump in Week 16, and this week, he has an even better matchup vs. the Dolphins. Evans is nearly matchup proof with QB Baker Mayfield because he will target him vs. zone or man defenses, while even throwing to him inside the 5-yard line on first down in obvious running situations.
Miami is 29th in defensive DVOA vs. the pass with 26 passing TDs allowed. So, if I can get Evans at better than +120, I’ll take it every time.
As for the Dolphins, QB Quinn Ewers had a rough first start facing the Bengals, but I do think there’s upside for him to target his WR1 in Jaylen Waddle for a TD.
Waddle saw nine targets last week with Ewers at QB, and I haven’t been betting Waddle TD props much this year because I’ve been burned by his injury history and taking big hits.
While that’s happened a few times this year, Waddle has impressed me with the way that he plays through contact and finishes some of these meaningless games.
The Buccaneers' defense grades out slightly worse against the pass than the run, and with the potential of a trailing game script for Miami, Waddle should see some extra targets, which very well may lead to his seventh TD of the season.
Verdict: Jaylen Waddle +240 | Mike Evans +140
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Patriots vs. Jets
I almost wanted to go with QB Drake Maye to score a TD because it would add a boost to his already strong MVP case, but I’m going to go with his top target instead in TE Hunter Henry.
The Jets have allowed seven TDs to TEs this season, and rank 28th in defensive DVOA vs. the position.
Henry leads the Patriots in red zone snap rate and red zone target rate to go along with four receiving TDs. At +190, this is solid value for the Patriots' top red zone receiving option.
It’s pretty grim for the Jets this week, especially if Brady Cook continues to start. He’s only thrown for one TD since making his debut, and it was to WR Adonai Mitchell.
Well, the Patriots rank last in defensive DVOA vs. WR1s, and bottom-eight in TDs to WRs (16). So, I say we run Mitchell back this week!
Mitchell is the clear WR1 in the Jets' offense now.
Since joining the Jets, Mitchell has run the most routes and has the highest targets-per-route-run, while leading the team by a mile with six end zone targets and 12 deep targets.
With the Jets being massive underdogs, and pass-frequency likely to keep trending up, Mitchell is in a solid spot to score again.
Verdict: Hunter Henry +190 | Adonai Mitchell +390
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Saints vs. Titans
I’ve actually done pretty well betting on Titans TD scorers over the last two games, with Gunnar Helm (+500) coming through in Week 15 and then WR Chimere Dike (+350) scoring a TD in Week 16.
For this matchup vs. the Saints, I’m going to run back with Chimere Dike.
Dike has scored three of his four TDs this season over the last five games, and you can draw a straight parallel to when Dike’s role took off with the Titans, and that’s when head coach Brian Callahan got fired.
His snap rate and target rates all saw a massive jump, and you can tell the Titans scheme something up for him each week. He also leads the team in red zone targets and has potential to return kicks against a poor Saints' special teams unit.
I almost wanted to run it back with WR Chris Olave too, because we’ve been hammering opposing WR1s against the Titans, but with Taysom Hill seeing another usage bump, I’m taking him to finally score again this week.
The Titans' run defense is one of the worst in the NFL with 19 rushing TDs allowed, which is bottom-three in the league.
In Week 15, Hill carried the ball 12 times (twice in the red zone), while also throwing for a touchdown to Olave because the Panthers sold out to stop his rushing attempt.
I also think the Saints are pleased with the development of QB Tyler Shough, and with only two games left, management likely doesn’t want him scrambling too much and getting hurt in meaningless games to finish the season.
Verdict: Taysom Hill +280 | Chimere Dike +320
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Giants vs. Raiders
I’m not really sure what they expect us to do with the Giants for TD scorers now. If their QB doesn’t scramble OR throw the ball, then what are we doing?
Giants' QB Jaxson Dart looked completely neutered against the Vikings last week, as he only attempted 13 total passes and two rush attempts while looking like a shell of what we saw when he was dicing up the Eagles in his debut.
The Raiders play zone at the highest rate in the NFL. So, the matchup lines up for a slot WR like Wan’Dale Robinson, but at +200, it’s not really worth it if the pass attempts for Dart continue to trend down.
I’ll pass on the Giants this week.
The Raiders have been a mess for the majority of the season with QB Geno Smith, and our go-to in this offense was to take TE Brock Bowers in “tougher” matchups so we could get the best value.
Well, the Raiders smartly shut Bowers down for the rest of the season.
Now, facing a Giants squad that runs man coverage at a top-three rate, I’m going to tail my Touchdown Show co-host Sean Koerner on WR Jack Bech at +475. He’s seen a much higher target rate vs. man coverages this year and has averaged nearly 80% of snaps played over the last three games.
Bech also saw increased playing time when WR Tyler Lockett got hurt. So, with two games left and Bowers out, the Raiders may feature Bech even more to see what they have in the second-round rookie.
Verdict: Jack Bech +450 | Pass On Giants
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Eagles vs. Bills
When betting on Bills TD scorers, especially the running backs, there’s clearly game scripts that directly impact RB Ray Davis and RB Ty Johnson. The former typically sees a higher workload in games where the Bills are running up the score, while Johnson sees a larger role in trailing game scripts since he’s a better pass-catcher.
Facing the Eagles, there’s a higher chance of the Bills in a trailing game script, which means I’m gonna ride with Johnson to get a score here.
Johnson has 27 targets this season compared to 35 for RB1 James Cook, and Johnson also tends to see more downfield targets in the Bills offense, which gives him a higher upside to catch one in the end zone.
The Eagles' run defense has started to trend down overall as well, with 12 rushing TDs allowed and four passing TDs to RBs. So, unless you want to take Josh Allen for 2+ TDs at +800, Johnson is where I’d go in this matchup.
I’m not messing around at all when it comes to the Eagles.
If you can get QB Jalen Hurts to score a TD at +140, you hammer that every time. While he hasn’t scored in four games, Hurts is still scrambling quite a bit, and this is a matchup where he may be used a bit more.
The Bills' run defense is awful with 24 rushing TDs allowed this season (last in NFL), and with RB Saquon Barkley getting so many touches over the last month, I think the Bills could get caught napping trying to stop Saquon and we could see Hurts waltz into the end zone untouched.
Hurts has recorded 10+ rushing TDs in all but one season over the course of his career. So, with Hurts only having eight so far in 2025, I think he might even score twice in a matchup where the tush push near the goal line might be the difference-maker.
Verdict: Jalen Hurts +145 | Ty Johnson +550
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