NFL Week 3 Betting Trends, Stats, Notes: Action Network Betting Primer
The first two weeks of the regular season are in the books! Time to turn our attention to Week 3 with the betting trends, stats and notes you need to know.
Welcome to Week 3 of the Action Network NFL betting primer.
1. The Under Has Arrived!
Through 33 games this season, the under is 22-11 (66.7%), the best start for the under through two weeks since 1996 and the second-best start in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
Not to mention, through three weeks, the average over/under is 45.5 this year. We haven’t finished a season below 45.5 since 2018.
2. The Advantage Is Gone.
Entering Week 3, we have seen a total of 24 home underdogs and 24 home favorites. Exactly even.
In the last 40 years, we’ve never seen as many home underdogs in the first three weeks of the regular season.
So far this season, home underdogs are 9-5-1 ATS, profiting a $100 bettor $326, the best start since 2012.
3. Tom Brady vs. Aaron Rodgers
In the last 20 years, Brady and Rodgers are the most profitable quarterbacks in the NFL against the spread.
- Brady: 192-131-9 ATS (59.4%), $100 bettor up $5,521. 16.6% ROI. Cover by 3.3 PPG.
- Rodgers: 132-92-5 ATS (58.9%), $100 bettor up $3,421. 14.9% ROI. Cover by 1.3 PPG.
4. A Detroit First
The Lions are the 15th team in the last 20 years to enter Week 3 averaging 30-plus points per game and allowing 30-plus PPG. Only three have been listed as an underdog and none by more than 3.5 points.
The Bengals lost as 7-point favorites in Week 1 (PIT) and Week 2 (DAL). Bengals are the first team since the 2015 Eagles and 2015 Saints to lose in Weeks 1 and 2 as at least a touchdown favorite. Bengals are the first team since 2004 Chiefs to be favored in Week 3 after losing as touchdown favorites in Weeks 1 and 2.
6. Sign Of Relief
Patrick Mahomes is 22-1 SU and 18-5 ATS the week after playing a division opponent (19-0 SU, 16-3 ATS after a win vs. a division opponent). A week after playing a non-divisional opponent, he’s 22-27-2 ATS.
7. Make It Stop!
The Panthers have lost nine consecutive games against the spread, the longest active streak in the NFL. Panthers are 2-14 ATS in their past 16 games.
8. Herbert Hurt.
The Chargers have moved from a 10-point favorite on the lookahead line vs. the Jaguars to now a 3.5-point favorite with Justin Herbert’s status in serious question.
All data, stats and trends are updated as of Sunday, Sept. 25, 11a ET.
NFL Week 3
Thursday Night Football
Larger Than Life
Browns are 4.5-point favorites vs. the Steelers this week, their third-largest line against Pittsburgh in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
Browns Biggest Favorite Over Steelers — Wild Card era (since 1990)
-10.5 == Jan 2021, W, 24-22
-5 == Oct 2021, L, 15-10
-4.5 == Week 3, 2022
Kevin Steanski is 15-21 ATS as head coach of the Browns. When they face a non-divisional opponent, he is 14-10 ATS. When they face the AFC North, 1-11 ATS.
Kevin Stefanski is 1-11 ATS vs. divisional opponents as head coach of the Browns.
Least profitable coach ATS vs. a divisional opponent in the last 20 years via @Bet_Labs
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) September 21, 2022
A New Era
If the Browns close as favorites vs. the Steelers, they will be listed as favorites in three consecutive games vs. Pittsburgh for the first time since 1988-1990, when they were favored in four consecutive games.
On the other side, if the Steelers close as underdogs in Week 3, it will be the first time they’ve closed as underdogs in their first three games since the 1992 season and just the second time in the Wild Card era (since 1990).
A Different Spot
In the past 20 years, the Browns are 3-0 ATS at home against the Steelers in primetime. In all other spots at home, Cleveland is 5-10-1 ATS vs. Pittsburgh in that span.
Under The Radar
Should you lean under on Thursday Night Football?
- Since 2010, Thursday games with a total of 40 or below are 18-5 to the under, hitting the under by 8.9 PPG.
- At 38.5, this is the lowest Thursday Night Football over/under since Bears/Lions in 2019 (37.5).
- So far this season, primetime unders are 6-1. Last year, primetime overs started the season 6-0.
20 MPH winds expected for Steelers-Browns Thursday night…
The Under in Cleveland by wind MPH — Last 20 Years
20+ MPH: 12-2
19+ MPH: 13-4
18+ MPH: 16-4 pic.twitter.com/7A2Ogt6qQl
— Evan Abrams (@EvanHAbrams) September 22, 2022
The Steelers are 48-26-4 ATS (64.9%) as an underdog under Mike Tomlin. A $100 bettor would be up $2,029 betting the Steelers as underdogs, making Tomlin the most profitable coach as a dog since 2003.
Steelers are 20-6-2 ATS (76.9%) as an underdog vs. AFC North opponents under Tomlin.
For more information on betting percentages, line moves and ticket counts, access our Action Network odds dashboard.
Biggest NFL Week 3 Public Sides
(The most popular spread bets for Week 3)
|80% of bets at Jets|
|79% of bets at Patriots|
|77% of bets at Broncos|
Most Bet Games by Ticket Count in Week 3
(The most popular bet games for Week 3; excluding Thursday Night Football)
|130,000 betting tickets|
|115,000 betting tickets|
|102,000 betting tickets|
Biggest Line Moves in Week 3
Spread Movers (lines opened on Sunday night):
|6.5-pt move at Chargers|
|6.5-pt move at Commanders|
|5-pt move vs. Cowboys|
The Sharp Report
If you want to make betting decisions for yourself, but don’t have the time to collect all the data, check out our NFL PRO Report. This analysis highlights five key betting signals: big money, sharp action, expert projections, expert picks, and historical betting systems.
Our model’s odds are compared to the consensus odds. We recommend at least a Grade B of a 3.5% edge before considering a bet based solely on projections.
Top Props for Week 3: Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Bet: Over 16.5 rush attempts (-105)
Prop projections and grades for every NFL player in the Action App.
How to use the Action Network’s PRO Report to make your betting decisions easier.
The Big Picture
Super Bowl Movers: After Week 2, which teams’ Super Bowl odds have moved the most?
(Odds entering Week 1 to current)
30-1 to 66-1
40-1 to 66-1
150-1 to 66-1
MVP Movers: After Week 2, which players have skyrocketed up the MVP charts?
(Odds entering Week 1 to current)
Jalen Hurts: 40-1 to 10-1
Tua Tagovailoa: 150-1 to 16-1
For more content on NFL Anytime TD content check out Gilles Gallant on the Action Network.
- The Favorites Podcast: Another profitable week for Action Network hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter is the backdrop for a rousing Week 3 slate full of intrigue and hard decisions. Together the duo go through every game from top to bottom, discussing Tom Brady’s frustrations, the backstabbing Panthers, the all-or-nothing Indianapolis Colts and so much more.
- The Action Network Podcast: It’s “kitchen sink week” in the NFL and Action Network is back to bring you some of the sharpest NFL bets around. Every Friday, Brendan Glasheen welcomes a trio of experts to give their favorites three picks for the NFL slate. This week we’ve got Brandon Anderson, Gilles Gallant and Luke Swain, the man behind the incredibly popular Twitter handicapping handle @VegasRefund. Together they lay out nine total bets, plus a top lookahead spot for Week 4, and all in less than 30 minutes.
- The Action Network Podcast: Our duo of Chris Raybon and Stuckey stayed red hot in Week 2, so as we move onto a treacherous Week 3 slate the guys come prepared to celebrate the Lovie Smith Revenge Game. Together they deliver their Sunday Six Pack of spread bets, but their leans on totals, teasers, a moneyline underdog parlay and so much more.
For more Action Network podcasts, check out our page with a portfolio of ten different options across eight different sports.
Bills at Dolphins
South Beach Effect. One rule of thumb in South Beach: Keep your stay short. Teams are 9-4 ATS on short rest on the road in Miami since 2003 (six days or less), but just 9-18-1 ATS on more than a full week of rest.
Home Cooking. Dolphins have now won 25 straight home games when leading at halftime, the longest active streak in the NFL.
Winning Big. The Bills are 14-7 straight up since the start of last season — all 14 wins have come by 12 points or more.
Through two games, the Bills are beating their opponents by 27.5 PPG and covering by 21.8 PPG. In the last 20 years, only four other teams have won and covered by 20-plus PPG through two games:
- 2019 Patriots
- 2011 Lions
- 2006 Chargers
- 2006 Bears
None of the four teams covered in Week 3.
Keep It Going. In Week 2, the Bills won the first half and then dominated the second half. Under Josh Allen, the Bills are 43-22-3 (66.2%) against the second half spread.
Scared to ride Buffalo after they lead at the half? Don’t.
The Bills are 27-11-1 (71.1%) against the second half spread when leading at the half and have covered the second half spread in 15 of their last 17 games.
Ravens at Patriots
31 Years Later. The Patriots are listed as underdogs in their first three games of the regular season for the first time since 1991.
Dog Day Afternoon. Bill Belichick has played the role of the underdog only twice in 11 meetings against John Harbaugh (Patriots are 2-0 ATS). He’s been listed as an underdog or under a FG favorite four times vs. Harbaugh and he’s 4-0 ATS.
In his coaching career with the Patriots, Belichick is 10-8 SU and 13-5 ATS as a home underdog. This is the earliest in the season that Belichick has been a home dog since opening up the 2002 season as a home dog vs. Steelers and Kordell Stewart in Week 1 (Patriots won, 30-14).
Black and Blue Effect. The Patriots faced the Steelers in Week 2 and now face the Ravens in Week 3. Since 2017, three teams have faced the Steelers a week before the Ravens and all three of those teams ended up losing straight up to Baltimore.
Life Without Tom. Belichick was 187-127-10 against the spread (60%) as a head coach with Tom Brady as his QB. With the Patriots, Belichick is just 36-36-1 ATS without Brady under center.
Half Life. Over the last five seasons, Lamar Jackson is the most profitable QB against the first half spread at 36-18-1 (66.7%), making a $100 bettor $1,583. It’s not just Lamar. John Harbaugh is 140-97-8 (59.1%) against the first half spread as coach of the Ravens, good for a 14.8% ROI, best in the NFL.
Fireworks. The Ravens offense is clicking on all cylinders scoring 38 points last week in a loss against the Dolphins. Lamar Jackson is 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS the week after scoring 35 points or more in his NFL career.
Bengals at Jets
Oh and Two. The Bengals have opened up the season 0-2 after losses to the Cowboys and Steelers. The reigning Super Bowl winner or loser hasn’t started 0-2 SU since 2014-15 Seahawks. Seattle actually finished 10-6, and made the Divisional Round.
Super Bowl Runner-Up to Start 0-2 in Wild Card Era (since 1990)
*Only team to win eight games and make playoffs
Going back-to-back? The New York Jets haven’t won consecutive games straight up since Dec. 20 and Dec. 27 2020 (the only time its happened since 2019).
Backup Value. Over the last 20 years, 20 different QBs have started for the Jets. The least profitable ATS are Sam Darnold 14-23-1 ATS and second-worst is Zach Wilson at 5-8 ATS (19-31-1 ATS combined).
Saints at Panthers
Just A Bad Spot. In his NFL career, Jameis Winston is 8-18-1 (30.8%) against the spread when listed as a favorite, losing a $100 bettor $1,062.
Of the 94 quarterbacks listed as a favorite since Winston’s rookie year in 2015, he is the third-least profitable ATS as a favorite (ahead of just Russell Wilson and Matt Ryan).
Turn It Around! Baker Mayfield went 7-6 ATS in his rookie year. Since then, he’s 18-31-1 ATS, losing a $100 bettor $1,385, worst of any quarterback in the NFL (92nd of 92 QBs).
How about Baker off a loss? More of the same. 6-15-1 ATS off a loss since 2019, also the least profitable QB ATS in the NFL.
Chiefs at Colts
Backing Mahomes. Patrick Mahomes has faced seven teams coming off scoring 14 points or fewer in their previous game. The Chiefs are 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS in those games.
How about rest? The Chiefs are 5-0 SU, but just 3-2 ATS on 10-plus days rest since 2019 with Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have won nine consecutive games SU on more than a full week rest (eight days or more).
The Bad Matt. Matt Ryan is 25-40-1 ATS (38.5%) over the last five seasons, losing a $100 bettor $1,659, the least profitable QB in the NFL.
Low Love. The under has cashed in seven consecutive Colts games.
Jaguar Trouble. The Colts were shutout by the Jaguars last week. Since 2015, the Colts are 1-13-1 ATS vs. the Jaguars and 57-42-3 ATS (57.6%) vs. the other 30 NFL teams.
Even further, over the last 20 years, the Colts are 24-9-1 ATS (72.7%) the week after playing the Jaguars, their most profitable opponent in that spot. Week after playing the Jaguars or Texans, Indy is 49-22-2 ATS, a 33% ROI.
Bad Omen. The Colts are winless and were shutout in their last game, a bad combo. In the last decade, this has happened to seven total teams. All seven finished the season below .500 straight up … though, those teams were 6-2 against first half spread in their next game.
Texans at Bears
Post Lambeau. Since 2019, the Bears are 1-4 straight up and 0-5 against the spread the week after playing the Packers, including 0-2 SU/ATS with Justin Fields, losing by a combined score of 55-12.
Fields vs. Mills. Sunday will be Fields’ 13th career start and just the second time he is listed as a favorite. Chicago were 3-point favorites vs. Lions last year and won, 24-14.
From Davis Mills’ perspective, Week 3 is Mills’ 14th career start, with all 14 games coming as an underdog (7-6 ATS). Mills has never closed below a 6-point underdog.
Jaguars at Chargers
Travel Advisory. The Jaguars played at home vs. Colts in Week 2. In Week 3, Jacksonville travels to L.A. to face the Chargers. Since 2016, teams to play in EST and then play on the road in PST the following week are 59-38-5 ATS (60.8%), covering the spread by 2.7 PPG.
Buyer Beware. The Chargers played two games last season on 10 or more days rest, both as favorites. Los Angeles went 0-2 straight up and against the spread.
With the Chargers, don’t assume a bounceback. Teams on 10 or more days rest after a divisional loss are a putrid 23-42-1 ATS (35.4%) at home the following week, including 12-29 ATS (29.3%) when listed as favorites.
Road Woes. Trevor Lawrence is 0-9 straight up (2-7 ATS) on the road in his NFL career, failing to cover the spread by 9.7 PPG. Jags have lost five straight on the road ATS w/ Lawrence.
Packers at Buccaneers
Head-To-Head. Tom Brady is 3-1 SU/ATS vs. Rodgers in his career (won three straight SU/ATS).
Early Dog. Aaron Rodgers is 29-23-2 (55.8%) ATS as an underdog in his career. But he’s struggled early in the season in that spot.
Aaron Rodgers as an Underdog
- Games 1-4: 5-8 ATS (38.5%)
- Game 5 and Later: 24-15-2 ATS (61.5%)
Run Baby Run. The Packers rushed for over 200 yards in their win vs. Bears. Under Rodgers, the Packers are 8-1 SU, 7-1-1 ATS week after rushing for 200 yards or more.
Doing It Different. Since 2011, only two teams have entered Week 3 undefeated SU/ATS averaging and allowing fewer than 20 PPG:
- 2022 Buccaneers
- 2019 Packers
- 2016 Ravens
The Packers and Ravens both won and covered in Week 3.
All About The D. The Bucs beat the Cowboys 19-3 in Week 1 and the Saints 20-10 in Week 2. Since Tom Brady went to Tampa, the Bucs are 6-0 SU/ATS a game after scoring 21 points or fewer, covering the spread by 16.3 PPG.
Back Home. Nobody likes returning from a road trip more than Brady. In the last 20 years, he is 28-12-1 ATS playing at home coming off two or more consecutive road games. He’s 6-1 SU/ATS with the Bucs in this spot.
Rams at Cardinals
Just Dominant. Sean McVay has faced the Arizona Cardinals eleven times as coach of the Rams. He is 10-1 straight up and 9-1-1 against the spread, making Arizona his most profitable opponent against the spread.
Starting Slow. In the last 20 years, only two defending Super Bowl champions have opened the year 0-2 ATS the following season prior to the Rams this year:
- 2012 New York Giants (after 2011 SB win)
- 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers (after 2008 SB win).
Falcons at Seahawks
Bad But Good. The Falcons and Texans are both 0-2 SU, but 2-0 ATS. They are just the seventh and eighth teams to do that through two games over the last 20 years. The previous six teams went 1-5 ATS in Week 3.
The 12th Man. Seattle is tough to beat at home. Over the past 20 years, they are 92-67-6 ATS (57.9%) at home, second-best in NFL behind the Patriots.
“It’s all Russ!”. With Russ, Seattle was 45-36-3 ATS (55.6%) at home. All other QBs in this span are 47-31-3 ATS (60.3%). Seahawks at home in the first four games? 26-11 ATS (70.3%) last 20 years.
49ers at Broncos
The Return. Jimmy Garoppolo returns to the starting QB position after the 49ers lost Trey Lance for the season.
The 49ers are 35-16 straight up and 29-21-1 against the spread with Jimmy Garoppolo as QB. With all other QB in that span? They are 8-29 SU and 16-22 ATS.
Mile High. The Broncos have dominated home games early in the year in Denver. At home in September, Denver is 48-13 straight up. In this spot, the Broncos though are usually favorites as they are just 28-26-8 ATS since 1990.
Flashback. Russell Wilson hasn’t been a home dog in September since in 2012. You may remember that game…
🗓️ 8 years ago today…
The Fail Mary happened resulting in one of the worst bad beats in recent memory.
Packers (-3) bettors look away. 🤮pic.twitter.com/tkppxCPiit
— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) September 24, 2020
Primetime Russ? In Wilson’s career, he is 26-16-3 ATS (61.9%) under the lights (7 p.m. ET or later), the fourth-most profitable QB in Bet Labs behind Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers and Philip Rivers. But recently, Russ is just 2-9 ATS in his last 11 starts in primetime, losing five straight ATS.
All About The Role. Kyle Shanahan in his career as head coach (since 2017):
- Favorite: 17-25-1 ATS (3rd-worst)
- Underdog: 28-18 ATS (4th-best)
Cowboys at Giants
America’s Dog. Dallas Cowboys are underdogs in the first three games of the regular season for the first time since 2001 and just the third time in the Wild Card era (since 1990; also happened in 1990).
Hot Apple. Daniel Jones has covered six of his past seven games, including winning and covering four consecutive home games.
Welcome Back. Cooper Rush makes his third career start on Sunday on the road in New York. In Rush’s second start against the Bengals last week he won as an underdog. Can we expect more of the same?
In the past five seasons, backup QBs are 17-34 straight up in their second consecutive start — the theory being the opposing team has more film to study on the quarterback. Since the start of 2020, they are 6-16 straight up.
An Outsider. The New York Giants are 2-0 with a -9.5% DVOA according to Football Outsiders — the worst 2-0 team by DVOA since 2016 Patriots (won SB) and 2016 Texans (did not).
Low, Low, Low. If the Cowboys-Giants over/under closes under 40, it will be just the second Monday Night Football game over the last five years with a total under 40. The other? Dolphins at Saints with Tua Tagovailoa and Ian Book.
Bills at Ravens
- Lookahead line has the Ravens +4 at home vs. the Bills. Baltimore is 5-0 ATS as a home underdog over the last five years.
Seahawks at Lions
- Lions are listed as a 5.5-point favorite on the lookahead line. Detroit hasn’t been listed as a favorite in 26 games, a record in the Super Bowl era. The last time Detroit were favorites? Nov. 22, 2020 against the Carolina Panthers.
Chiefs at Buccaneers
- Tom Brady opened the season beating the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football, but primetime hasn’t been friendly to Tom. Brady is 2-12 against the spread in his last 14 primetime games.