Is Life Too Short To Bet The Under? First 2 NFL Weeks Might Have You Reconsider
Stephen Maturen/Getty Images. Pictured: Kirk Cousins.
They say that “life is too short to bet the under.” But life become shorter with no money.
Those who were willing to suffer by rooting against offenses were very profitable through the first two weeks of the NFL season. Unders went 22-10 (69%), the second-best start of the Wild Card Era (1990).
The under stalwarts, the Pittsburgh Steelers, reliably hit the under in their first two weeks. Pittsburgh’s game against the New England Patriots this past week fell nine points short of the total (40) and, in the week before against Cincinnati, the under hit with 1.5 points to spare (44.5).
Over the last 10 seasons, Pittsburgh is an NFL best 89-62-2 (58%) on the under.
Those who have sat down on the couch, ready to root for the over during primetime games have also been burned.
The most shocking under team is the Minnesota Vikings, who, last season, led the league in overs — hitting 11 of 17.
Minnesota scored 23 points against Green Bay in Game 1, yet held their opponent to only eight points. The under fell 15.5 points short of the 46.5 point total, the second-largest margin between the closing line total and actual total.
The largest margin? Monday night’s game between the Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles. A total of 31 points were scored, 18.5 points short of the closing total of 49.5.
The lackluster Indianapolis Colts also contributed to the under winnings, scoring just 20 points in their two games.
The last time things were this good for the under was 1996, when the under hit 72% of the time (21-8-1) through the first two weeks.
So what will the under hit rate be next week?
Over the last six seasons, through the first three weeks, the under has never hit more than the over. Will it be time for bettors to give back their under gains?
History would say so.