Bucs-Bears Betting Preview: How Sharps See the Over/Under

Bucs-Bears Betting Preview: How Sharps See the Over/Under article feature image
Credit:

Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Betting odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears

  • Spread: Bears -3
  • Over/Under: 46.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: A large discrepancy between bets and dollars helps explain the movement on the over/under.

The under is getting 53% of bets compared to 82% of dollars as of writing (see live data here), which has resulted in a move from 47 to 46.5. Mark Gallant


Should bettors trust the Bears? Chicago has won two in a row, but each win was decided by one score. History is not on the Bears’ side when it comes to covering in this spot.

According to our Bet Labs data, teams — such as Chicago — that failed to make the playoffs the season before have been good candidates to fade in the first half of the season when they jump out to a winning record and are favored. John Ewing


Injury watch: There’s cautious optimism that the Bucs’ first-round defensive tackle Vita Vea (calf) will make his debut on Sunday.

The outlook is less promising for defensive tackle Beau Allen (foot), but Gerald McCoy (biceps) and right tackle Demar Dotson (knee) are tentatively expected to play.

The Bears secondary could need some reinforcements, as cornerbacks Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and Marcus Cooper (hamstring) did not practice to start the week.

The offense is healthy with the exception of rookie slot receiver Anthony Miller (shoulder), who reportedly won’t need surgery but is not expected to suit up on Sunday and is considered week-to-week.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: Allen Robinson has enjoyed 43% of the Bears’ market share of air yards and 26% of their target share, but that number could be trending even more highly if Miller is unable to play.

Robinson is $5,900 on DraftKings with a solid +2.19 Projected Plus/Minus against a Buccaneers defense that has surrendered 1,088 passing yards and 7.9 net yards per attempt through the first three weeks. Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bears -3 (-105)

If Chicago didn’t fold like a lawn chair against Aaron Rodgers in the second half of Week 1’s Sunday night game, what is this number?

The Bears got Rodgers’d. It happens.

Since then, wins over the Seahawks and a too-close-for-comfort nail-biter over the Cardinals in the desert has the Bears at 2-1.

They’re being rated as slightly inferior or equal to Tampa, and considering the Bucs are traveling after a Monday night game and had somewhat fraudulent hype generated by Ryan Fitzpatrick, I think they continue coming back down to Earth this week.

This past Monday night, a lot of people probably went “Oh, right, Fitzpatrick isn’t that good.”

After Sunday’s game, I think Jameis Winston easily reclaims his starting spot. Ken Barkley

 


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

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