Bucs-Bengals Betting Preview: Which Version of Cincinnati Will Show Up?

Oct 28, 2018 6:50 AM EDT

Betting odds: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Cincinnati Bengals

  • Spread: Bengals -3.5
  • Over/Under: 54.5
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: The Bengals have drawn the majority of bets in this game (60% at the time of writing) which doesn’t come as too much of a surprise. What’s a bit more surprising is how the line has reacted. With those bets accounting for 57% of dollars wagered, Cincy has fallen from -6 to -3.5.

The over/under has seen just about 50-50 betting, but 87% of dollars have hit the over, moving this number from 53.5 to 54.5 (see live betting data here). —Danny Donahue

Trends to know: After opening the season 4-1 straight up and against the spread, the Bengals are on a two-game losing streak, failing to cover both games. Andy Dalton is 12-5-1 ATS (+6.8 units) after losing two games in a row, according to our Bet Labs data. — Evan Abrams

Biggest mismatch: Buccaneers passing game vs. Bengals secondary

The Buccaneers’ pass offense hasn’t skipped a beat with Jameis Winston under center. Overall, the Bucs boast the week’s best matchup in combined net yards per pass attempt.

The Bengals join the Bucs and Falcons as the league’s only defenses that have allowed 300-plus passing yards in at least five games this season, and they could be without starting linebacker Vontaze Burfict (hip) and slot corner Darqueze Dennard (shoulder).

Winston’s fantasy floor remains high in any matchup considering he ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in rushing yards over the past two weeks. — Ian Hartitz

Which team is healthier? Bengals

The Buccaneers’ front seven is in a bad spot at the moment, as linebackers Kwon Alexander (knee, injured reserve) and Jack Cichy (knee, IR) could be joined on the bench by defensive line stalwarts Gerald McCoy (calf) and Vinny Curry (ankle). The status of running back Peyton Barber (knee) remains unclear.

The Bengals are far from 100% themselves, as running back Gio Bernard (knee), tight end Tyler Kroft (foot), center Billy Price (ankle), receiver John Ross (groin) and linebacker Nick Vigil (knee) join Burfict and Dennard as Cincinnati players banged up to various degrees.

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Dashboard for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge: A.J. Green and Tyler Boyd are both in play against the Buccaneers, who are allowing a league-high 202.2 passing yards per game to players in the slot this season, per Sports Info Solutions.

Boyd has run 70.5% of his routes from the slot, while Green comes in at 29.9%. Moreover, of Green’s five touchdowns this season, four have come when he as line up in the slot. Both receivers project inside the top 13 in our FantasyLabs Player Models. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: Bengals -3.5

The last time we saw the Bengals they were getting blown out 45-10 by the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.

Nothing went right for Cincinnati, as Dalton threw for only 148 yards and Joe Mixon rushed for only 50 yards.

It is important to not overreact to one game; NFL teams are never as good or bad as they looked the previous week.

Since 2003, teams that lost their previous game by 20 or more points to a good opponent (won 60% or more of games) have bounced back, going 213-169-9 (56%) ATS in their next game.

The Bengals offense should have more success against a Bucs defense that ranks 32nd in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA and is allowing an NFL-worst 32.7 points per game. — John Ewing


Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Mike Evans, AJ Green

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
BUF
NYJ
37
-9.5
37.5
-6.5
MIA
GB
47.5
-9.5
49
-12
NYG
SF
44
-3
45
-3
LAC
OAK
50.5
+10
50.5
+10
NO
CIN
55.5
+4.5
53.5
+6
NE
TEN
46.5
+7
46.5
+6.5
CAR
PIT
50
-7
51
-3.5
ARI
KC
50
-17.5
49.5
-16.5
WAS
TB
51.5
PK
51
-3.5
DET
CHI
46.5
-6.5
44.5
-7
ATL
CLE
51
+3.5
49.5
+6
JAC
IND
47.5
-3
48
-3
SEA
LA
51.5
-11.5
51
-10
DAL
PHI
43.5
-6
45
-7.5