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Updated NFL Win Total Projections: Is There Value on Your Team’s New Number?

Updated NFL Win Total Projections: Is There Value on Your Team’s New Number? article feature image

AP Photo/Zach Bolinger. Pictured: Matt Ryan.

After two weeks in the NFL season, we’ve already seen some big shake-ups and surprisingly good starts for some teams.

In terms of updated NFL win total projections, the question becomes, is there value with the new number?

We’re still very early in the season, so there’s no need to shift away from the long-term markets just yet, particularly because odds have shifted heavily after such a small sample size of games.

Let’s look at the updated totals and how I project them.

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Updated NFL Win Totals

Below, you can find each NFL team’s preseason win total and what its current win total is.

Team  Preseason Win Total Current Win Total
Arizona Cardinals 8.5 7.5
Atlanta Falcons 4.5 4
Baltimore Ravens 10.5 10.5
Buffalo Bills 11.5 12.5
Carolina Panthers 6.5 5.5
Chicago Bears 6.5 6.5
Cincinnati Bengals 9.5 8.5
Cleveland Browns 8.5 8.5
Dallas Cowboys 10.5 8.5
Denver Broncos 10.5 9
Detroit Lions 6.5 6.5
Green Bay Packers 10.5 10.5
Houston Texans 4.5 4.5
Indianapolis Colts 9.5 7.5
Jacksonville Jaguars 6.5 6.5
Kansas City Chiefs 10.5 11.5
Los Angeles Chargers 10.5 11
Los Angeles Rams 10.5 10.5
Las Vegas Raiders 8.5 8
Miami Dolphins 8.5 9.5
Minnesota Vikings 9.5 10.5
New England Patriots 8.5 8.5
New Orleans Saints 8.5 8.5
New York Giants 7.5 8.5
New York Jets 5.5 5.5
Philadelphia Eagles 9.5 11.5
Pittsburgh Steelers 7.5 7
San Francisco 49ers 9.5 9.5
Seattle Seahawks 5.5 6
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 11.5 12
Tennessee Titans 9.5 7.5
Washington Commanders 7.5 7.5

As you can see, some teams have seen up to two-game shifts in their listed total. That would include the Titans, the Eagles, the Colts and the Cowboys.

On the other hand, teams such as the 49ers and the Jets haven’t had their totals moved at all at this point in the season.

Of course, the other aspect to consider is juice, the price that is assigned to each side of the over/under. That will vary from book to book, but for the most part the actual win totals will remain identical.

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Koerner’s Updated NFL Win Total Projections

Before making a decision on one of these totals, you can consult my win total projections below. The projections outline the probability of each team winning a certain number of games.

For example, I have the Colts estimated at a 53% likelihood of going under their listed total of 7.5 games. At FanDuel, you can get that bet at plus-money!

Click here for a downloadable version of my updated win total projections.

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