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SEC Odds, Picks: Our Top Bets for Saturday’s Conference Games

SEC Odds, Picks: Our Top Bets for Saturday’s Conference Games article feature image
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Ryan Collinsworth/Action Network.

  • Saturday's SEC college football slate features plenty of intriguing games.
  • Our staff is betting all five big games on the docket, including Florida vs Georgia and Kentucky vs Tennessee.
  • Check out our top bets for all five SEC games below.

SEC Football Betting Previews for Week 9

The team logos in the table below represent each of five SEC conference matchups that the Action Network NCAAF staff is betting on Saturday, Oct. 29. Click the team logos for one of the matchups below to jump to a specific bet discussed in this article.

Game
Time (ET)
Pick
Noon
Auburn +3.5
3:30 p.m.
Over 56.5
4 p.m.
Under 46.5
7 p.m.
2 Picks
7:30 p.m.
Ole Miss -1.5
Specific bet recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game.
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Arkansas vs Auburn

Saturday, Oct. 29
Noon
SEC Network
Auburn +3.5

By Collin Wilson

Dark clouds surround the head coaching position at Auburn, as Bryan Harsin is on the hottest seat in college football.

A six-win season sent the Tigers to the Birmingham Bowl last season, and they took a loss to a Group of Five school in Houston. Rumors of an unverified affair with an employee made the rounds and became a punchline for Harsin in every interview.

Players have quietly hit the portal, while defensive coordinator Derek Mason took a lateral job at Oklahoma State. With a new athletic director soon to be named and no indication of improvement, Harsin’s days on the plains are short.

There are no job security issues in Fayetteville, as Arkansas comes off of a much-needed bye week after an offensive domination of BYU. The Hogs have taken hits up and down the roster, but none are more severe than what has taken place in the secondary.

Head coach Sam Pittman got some recruiting in while the Razorback roster looked to mend injuries. Arkansas is 4-1 against the number coming off of a bye week since Pittman took over as head coach.

The Hogs will need to win every one of the final five games if they hope to reach a high-profile bowl game.


Arkansas Razorbacks

There are reinforcements coming for a secondary unit that lost leader Jalen Catalon early in the season. Safeties Myles Slusher and Latavious Brini are considered questionable, while fellow defensive backs Khari Johnson and Jayden Johnson will return.

Although wide receiver Jadon Haselwood will take part in no-contact drills this week, there’s an expectation that one of the most explosive targets on the team will be available.

After three consecutive losses in SEC play, Arkansas had a renaissance against BYU. The defense didn’t allow a point in the fourth quarter, while the offense put up 52 points against an underachieving Cougar defense.

Quarterback KJ Jefferson had five touchdowns and connected with 10 different targets, while Raheim Sanders logged 175 yards while averaging over five yards after contact.

STILL the leading rusher in the SEC 🚀 @raheim_sanders pic.twitter.com/CU4R5TdOsQ

— Arkansas Razorback Football (@RazorbackFB) October 21, 2022

The biggest difference in the BYU game was coordinator Kendal Briles’ offensive play-calling. Pittman was pleased to see the playbook open up in early downs. Arkansas has the ability to rush Sanders behind a fierce offensive line, but Briles elected to start half of possessions with a passing attempt.

Arkansas is one of the best squads in staying in standard downs on offense, ranking 16th in that area. The Hogs also show explosiveness with a rank of eighth in expected points on passing attempts and a top-10 mark in passing plays over 30 yards.

The problems with the Razorbacks have come on defense.

Coordinator Barry Odom has multiple issues with ranks outside the top 100 in tackling, Line Yards and coverage. Those warts tend to pop when teams get behind schedule, as the Hogs rank 125th in Defensive Success Rate on passing downs.

Although the statistics indicate a decent pass rush, the Razorbacks did not record a sack against BYU or Mississippi State. Even with a number of starters returning to the defense, fundamentals continue to plague the Razorbacks in high-scoring affairs.


Auburn Tigers

Teams on the verge of firing a head coach generally don’t put up much of a fight on the field. However, Auburn has covered two of its last three games against Ole Miss and LSU.

This particular series has belonged to the Tigers over the past decade, as they’ve won eight of the last 10, including a drubbing of the Hogs in Fayetteville last season.

Since taking over as the starter in Week 4 against Missouri, quarterback Robby Ashford has made the Auburn offense competitive. Although the passing game averages as many turnovers as touchdowns, the rushing attack with Ashford serves as the primary concern for any defensive coordinator.

14 plays
14 runs
7:37 drive
TD

Robby Ashford era is HERE

pic.twitter.com/hFR5q0SwZK

— PFF College (@PFF_College) September 24, 2022

Ashford has 194 yards apiece in designed and scramble rush attempts. Offensive coordinator Eric Kiesau has implemented a mix of zone read, designed draw and more than 50 passing attempts utilizing screen or play action.

The Tigers not only have a quarterback with a high ceiling for explosiveness but an anchor at running back in Tank Bigsby. The junior averages 4.7 yards after contact, more than any other running back in college football with at least 100 attempts.

The Auburn defense has been just as troubled as Arkansas but with a lower strength of schedule. The Tigers rank bottom-10 in FBS in Havoc, Line Yards and Finishing Drives.

The defense allows an average of 4.5 points to opponents that cross the 40-yard line, while the front seven rarely tackles ballcarriers behind the line of scrimmage.

Want an illustration of how far the defensive unit has fallen? Ole Miss and Georgia combined to put up 740 rushing yards on the Tigers.


Arkansas vs Auburn Pick

One look at the defenses suggests this game is a definite over play on the total.

Both of these teams are two of the worst defensive units in the nation in Stuff Rate, signaling that Bigsby and Sanders will run wild. Arkansas’ poor coverage and tackle grading suggest Ashford will lead Auburn’s top-15 explosive attack to quick scores.

The issue with both of the offenses is mistakes in critical situations. Arkansas has climbed to 115th in penalties, while Auburn sits outside the top 100 in third-down conversions.

Ashford is a pure dual-threat talent who could torch the Hogs on the ground. The last quarterback with the same qualities to face Arkansas was Alabama backup Jalen Milroe, who averaged 15 yards a carry in relief of Bryce Young.

Auburn may elect to use Ashford and Bigsby much like Alabama used Milroe and Jahmyr Gibbs, but fumbles have been a consistent issue. No team in FBS has fumbled the ball more than Auburn.

The Razorbacks have struggled against explosive plays this season, as only Charlotte has allowed more 30-yard plays from scrimmage. Those numbers are more present in passing downs, as Arkansas ranks 125th in Defensive Success Rate and 123rd against the explosive play. Auburn has been outstanding when behind the chains, ranking 18th in passing downs explosiveness.

The Action Network projection makes this game Arkansas -4 with a total of 58.5. Both numbers are close to the market, but Auburn’s offense in long down and distances will make the difference.

Considering Arkansas has produced close to no pressures or sacks the past two weeks, Auburn will score enough on explosives to keep up with the Hogs.

Pick: Auburn +3.5 or Better



Florida vs No. 1 Georgia

Saturday, Oct. 29
3:30 p.m.
CBS
Over 56.5

By Collin Wilson

Another chapter in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party is set to be written from Jacksonville on Saturday afternoon.

Georgia leads the all-time series, 54-44-2, since the first meeting in 1904. The Bulldogs have won four of the last five in this series, but the neutral-site extravaganza may be a look-ahead spot. Undefeated No. 3 Tennessee heads to Athens next week as the showcase game of Week 10.

But first, the Bulldogs must face the Gators with a new coach.

Billy Napier has experienced high and low points through his first seven games in Gainesville. A red-zone interception sealed a victory over Utah, but losses to Kentucky and LSU give the Gators no shot to win the SEC East.

With South Carolina, Vanderbilt and Texas A&M on the remaining schedule, there will be every chance for Napier to keep Florida competing in postseason play.

Although an upset of Georgia does nothing to deter the Bulldogs’ chances of winning the division and conference, it would serve as the biggest upset of the college football season.


Florida Gators

Napier approached the bye week with full focus on the defensive side of the ball. The Florida coaching staff believes the problems have been identified and that getting consistency is the next stop.

There are a number of areas that need relief, as the Gators rank outside the top 100 in Success Rate against the rush and the pass.

The biggest gaping hole in the defensive numbers is the ability to generate Havoc. While rankings for fumbles and tackles for loss sit mid-FBS, the Gators are 129th in passes defensed, recording just 10 pass breakups this season.

Free safety Trey Dean III has just one forced incompletion on the season. Florida spends nearly 70% of coverage snaps in zone and gave up 349 passing yards in their latest game against LSU.

Quarterback Anthony Richardson and running back Montrell Johnson Jr. had plenty of success on the ground against LSU, posting 6.4 yards per carry. While those numbers are great on paper, they can be deceiving, as 77% of Richardson’s rush numbers come from scrambles.

Anthony Richardson is 𝐑𝐈𝐃𝐈𝐂𝐔𝐋𝐎𝐔𝐒 🤯🔥@GatorsFB x #SECFB pic.twitter.com/rwictgpgDS

— Southeastern Conference (@SEC) October 21, 2022

Opponents have been willing to give up the field to Richardson when running the offense, electing to stiffen in the red zone. Florida ranks 69th in Offensive Finishing Drives thanks to a healthy red-zone touchdown percentage.

Any team that excels in limiting explosive plays in standard downs while playing zone has had success in containing Richardson.


Georgia Bulldogs

Every golfer gets a case of the yips, but in the case of college football, that can come through in the form of an inexplicable game result.

Kent State faced just a 10-point deficit against Georgia in the fourth quarter, while Missouri held a 10-point lead on the Bulldogs in the final frame. The reigning national champions won those games with high post-game win expectancies, but questions remain about whether or not Kirby Smart’s team is vulnerable.

Georgia boasts the highest Offensive Success Rate mark in all of college football, along with a top-10 number in Finishing Drives.

When in doubt, throw it to Brock Bowers pic.twitter.com/FSxF7jtXU3

— Cam Mellor (@CamMellor) October 2, 2022

Daijun Edwards leads a potent ground attack that ranks 13th in Stuff Rate behind a solid offensive line, but it’s the tools of tight end Brock Bowers that makes Georgia a national power.

Bowers can line up at any position on the field, playing 116 snaps in the slot, 19 as a wideout and 60 as a traditional tight end.

Darnell Washington may not have as many targets as Bowers, but the 6-foot-7 mammoth tight end has assisted in generating single coverage for all targets.

Many expected the Georgia defense to see a cut in production across the board entering the season. Plenty of players from the national title team hit the NFL Draft, and coordinator Dan Lanning left for the head coaching position at Oregon.

New coordinator Glenn Schumann has filled in admirably, as the Bulldogs rank top-10 in Defensive Success Rate and second nationally in Finishing Drives. Opponents have crossed Georgia’s 40-yard line only 22 times this season, averaging a minuscule 2.3 points per trip.


Florida vs Georgia Pick

Florida has struggled with teams that play zone coverage and have a high grade in tackling.

Georgia runs zone on a healthy amount of coverage snaps but has seen a dip in tackling compared to last season’s squad. The Bulldogs sit 45th in tackle grading, but more importantly, rank in the bottom half of the country in generating Havoc.

Richardson may not see as much blitz as the Bulldogs look to eliminate chunk plays. Just as Florida is the most explosive team offensively in early downs, Georgia ranks fourth in limiting explosiveness in standard downs.

The bigger question for the Gators is the lack of playmakers on the backside of its defense. Not only do they possess poor ranks in coverage and Finishing Drives, but Florida is also 129th in opponent Success Rate in passing downs.

If Georgia gets behind the chains, Bowers and Washington will be the primary targets for quarterback Stetson Bennett. To this point, the national champion quarterback has not been asked to do much with only eight completions beyond 20 yards.

Action Network projects Georgia as a 21.5-point favorite, just shy of where the market has steamed. That can be justified when considering Florida’s defensive numbers.

The handicap comes on whether or not the Gators can score enough to keep the game close. The Bulldogs rely heavily on four or fewer defenders for a pass rush — an area Georgia has struggled with all season, ranking 124th in sacks.

Richardson will do enough for Florida to generate scores. At the same time, there might not be a defense in college football prepared to stop Bowers and Washington in routes down the hashes and a rushing attack that features multiple backs.

With a projection of 63, look for Georgia to have its best offensive day while allowing Richardson to find a half-dozen scoring opportunities.



Missouri vs No. 25 South Carolina

Saturday, Oct. 29
4 p.m.
SEC Network
Under 46.5

By Dan Keegan

The Missouri Tigers finish October play looking back on a season of “what-ifs,” having dropped three different conference games by a single score.

They head to Columbia, SC, to take on a South Carolina team that has no such qualms. Shane Beamer’s outfit is 5-2 and riding high after consecutive wins against Kentucky and Texas A&M, and the Gamecocks have earned a spot in the AP Top 25 Poll.

The Tigers have one of the most underrated defenses in the country and have been struggling all year to move the ball with consistency on offense. The under has cashed in every Missouri game since Week 1.

Is the under the play again, or do the Tigers have enough juice to take advantage of a good, but flawed, South Carolina team? Or is there a better bet to find in the matchup? Let’s take a look.


Missouri Tigers

It’s hard to overstate just how far Missouri’s defense has rebounded in one season. Last year’s group was one of the worst in the entire Power Five level, finishing 97th in defensive SP+.

New coordinator Blake Baker has turned this ship around entirely in 2022, ranking 27th in SP+, a metric that uses prior year data and other factors to give it stability. In metrics that only focus on in-season data against FBS opponents, Missouri’s defense is 14th overall in EPA Margin and fifth overall in Beta_Rank.

The unit has been strong at all levels. A deep defensive line rotation ranks 21st in PFF Pass Rush Grading and is 10th in Rushing Success Rate. The secondary is talented and chock-full of NFL prospects and the Tigers rank 17th in EPA defense/pass.

They stand you up in the red zone (18th in Finishing Drives) and create Havoc — ninth in the country in that metric. (That’s a matchup to note — South Carolina’s offense is susceptible to the negative play, ranking 126th in preventing Havoc).

The one Achilles heel — you can rip off big runs, as the defense is 129th against explosive rushes. That’s something South Carolina will certainly try to exploit, although it is not its biggest weapon (74th).

The offense, though? That’s a whole different story. The offensive line has been one of the worst in the Power Five, creating very little room for the tailbacks or giving quarterback Brady Cook any time to throw.

The only area in which Missouri’s offense is not in the bottom echelon of FBS, let alone Power Five teams, is passing explosiveness.

On the very rare occasions where Cook has time to throw, he has connected with wide receivers Dominic Lovett and Luther Burden for big gains, ranking 37th in Explosiveness on pass plays.

The bad news for the Tigers is that the Gamecocks’ strategy is to sacrifice some successful plays to prevent big passing plays, ranking 95th in Defensive Success Rate, but second overall in preventing explosives.

Missouri is not prepared on a down-to-down basis to capitalize on this approach.

South Carolina Gamecocks

What a dream season it has been so far for Beamer and his Gamecocks. While the blueprint isn’t perfect, it’s hard to argue with the results — the program is ranked and looking at another bowl appearance.

The vibes are sky-high right now in Columbia.

Williams-Brice Stadium was rocking last Saturday under the primetime lights, and the euphoric crowd never let up. Texas A&M’s offensive line was flagged for eight false start penalties in the contest.

I expect crowd noise and SC’s dangerous pass rush — 34th in PFF grading — to be a big factor in keeping Missouri behind the sticks.

The Gamecocks defense is sturdy against the pass — ranking 22nd in EPA — but it can be had on the ground, as it checks in at 112th in EPA/Rush.

As detailed above, the Gamecocks do sacrifice some successful plays in the name of preventing big ones, and overall, that approach has been successful in getting opponents off the field.

South Carolina is 24th in Parker Fleming’s ECKEL rate, meaning it’s one of the best in the country in preventing scoring opportunities.

The offense has been similarly one-sided. Spencer Rattler is having the worst year of his career so far, averaging only 209 yards per contest. He has made 11 Big Time Throws to 14 Turnover Worthy Plays on the season.

Rattler really struggles when pressured. These numbers from PFF highlight the split:

Plays Comp% Y/Att BTT TWP NFL Rating
Kept Clean 147 78% 9.2 9 4 103.7
Pressured 84 31% 3.8 2 10 20.8

Most college quarterbacks are going to struggle under pressure, but Rattler’s numbers are drastic, and that’s an area Missouri’s strong pass rush can exploit to get off the field.

South Carolina’s rushing attack has been excellent on the season. MarShawn Lloyd is a workhorse; his 91 carries have gone for an average of 5.7 yards each.

The Gamecocks’ offense is 40th in EPA/Rush compared to only 89th in EPA/Pass. It will be interesting to see how Lloyd runs against a Missouri front that is strong overall, but can be had for long gainers.

One area to monitor is special teams: South Carolina has excellent special teams and has created some big plays on the season — a kick return touchdown against Texas A&M, blocked kicks against Georgia State and more.

Missouri has an overall strong special teams unit, but has been prone to some glitches, with a few missed field goals and two big punt returns allowed already.

South Carolina could create a score or a scoring opportunity with its special teams.


Missouri vs South Carolina Pick

This line opened with South Carolina favored by 5.5 and now sits around 4. It’s a close matchup, as each team has some impenetrable strengths, but a few weak spots, as well.

South Carolina will let opponents try to string long drives together, but Missouri has not shown any capability to do so.

Missouri’s defense is fast, swarming and creates a ton of Havoc, which South Carolina is susceptible to.

According to Clark Brooks @SECStatCat on Twitter, Missouri and South Carolina are the two worst SEC offenses in preventing negative plays — Missouri at 14.98 plays per game that lose yardage and SC at 11.55.

I see both of these defenses posting one of their best days of the year. Points will be at a premium, and the coaches will play slowly and conservatively in such a tight matchup.

I’ll take the under 46.5, and I will play it down to 45.

Pick: Under 46.5 (Play to 45)



No. 19 Kentucky vs No. 3 Tennessee

Saturday, Oct. 29
7 p.m.
ESPN
Over 63.5 ⋅ Kentucky +13

By Collin Wilson

On the weekend before the first College Football Playoff rankings are announced, Tennessee must defend Rocky Top once again as division rival Kentucky makes a visit to Neyland Stadium.

The Volunteers are experiencing a magical season with plenty of similarities to the 1998 championship run. An undefeated record includes a cover on the road at LSU and at home against Alabama. Tennessee owns a strength of schedule in the top five, indicating there’s no fluke in this championship run.

The Wildcats, meanwhile, have been rolling with the punches since the season began.

Head coach Mark Stoops had several players suspended to start the season, while an injury at quarterback resulted in a loss to South Carolina. There have been positives for Kentucky that will lead to a quality bowl, including victories over Florida and Mississippi State.

The Vols represent the biggest hurdle to date on the Wildcats’ schedule, as Kentucky has just a single win in its last 13 trips to Neyland.


Kentucky Wildcats

A narrow loss to Ole Miss may have provided the practice session Kentucky needed to prepare for Tennessee’s uptempo offense.

Stoops acknowledged the Rebels don’t have quite the same dynamic from a play-calling standpoint, but handling the quick nature of the opponent was a part of drills in fall camp.

Ole Miss couldn’t find success on offense, as 20% of drives ended in a three-and-out punt. The Wildcats’ zone defense that stymied Florida’s Anthony Richardson also limited Jaxson Dart to a low 31% Passing Success Rate.

Kentucky’s defense once again flexed its muscles against Mississippi State’s Air Raid, allowing a single touchdown and just four plays from scrimmage in the red zone.

Running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. was suspended for the first month of play but has attacked the October schedule in fifth gear. The senior has logged nearly 200 yards on the ground behind an improving offensive line.

Will Levis returned under center after a foot injury kept the quarterback out of action against South Carolina.

The missing element from Levis this season is the ability to evade pressure, posting only 32 yards on designed runs and just 11 scramble yards against Power Five competition.


Tennessee Volunteers

Tennessee’s offense is the top scoring bunch in the nation, averaging 50.1 points per game. Only Ohio State has scored more touchdowns, as the Volunteers are a top-10 unit in Offensive Finishing Drives and Success Rate.

Quarterback Hendon Hooker has thrown just a single interception, posting the seventh-lowest turnover-worthy rate of any FBS passer with 200 attempts.

My word @henhook2 pic.twitter.com/oR8462LFYU

— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) October 15, 2022

Despite the absence of wide receiver Cedric Tillman, there have been plenty of other stars to emerge from the offense.

Jalin Hyatt is one of the most explosive wide receivers in college football, averaging 3.7 yards per route run with 90% of snaps coming from the slot. The junior has the third-highest explosiveness numbers of all slot wide receivers with at least 35 targets.

Bru McCoy and Ramel Keyton have been productive targets at wideout while Tillman is still considered day-to-day.

Defensive coordinator Tim Banks is looking to get the defense on par with the offense, but a leaky secondary has allowed opponents to compete.

Tennessee ranks outside the top 100 in Havoc and coverage, as Alabama and Florida each put up over 400 yards of passing. The Volunteers have an even split playing man and zone coverage and have struggled to stop the chains from moving no matter which personnel usage is selected.

Thankfully for Banks, the rush stop unit has overperformed. Tennessee sits top-15 in both Defensive Rushing Success Rate and Stuff Rate, forcing opponents into passing downs quicker than most defenses in college football.


Kentucky vs Tennessee Pick

Oddsmakers are not in the habit of giving away money when the hottest team in the country has a game lined. Kentucky sat above two touchdowns on the spread of the look-ahead line last week. An opener of 14 points was immediately chopped down into the dead zone of Tennessee -12.

Stoops is saddled with the task of slowing down the best offense in the country while leaning on the arm of Levis to beat the Volunteers’ secondary.

There are a few hidden advantages for Kentucky in this game, starting with the penalties. Kentucky ranks sixth in the nation in flags per game, a stark contrast to Tennessee’s rank of 129th.

Third-down defense is also a plus in favor of the Wildcats, who own a rank in the top 20.

One long-lasting trait of any Kentucky defense in any season is the ability to stop the explosive play. The Wildcats are fantastic when opponents find themselves in passing downs, ranking top-25 in Defensive Success Rate and defending explosiveness.

Action Network projects Tennessee as a 9-point favorite, giving plenty of value to the Kentucky number. There’s no haste in taking the Wildcats until a 13 or better pops in the market.

This was a highly competitive game last year, as Stoops elected to score as often as possible in lieu of stopping Tennessee’s uptempo offense. Stoops will look to implement the same offensive game plan as last season after Kentucky entered the fourth quarter trailing by only three points.

Look for tempo to be present on both sides of the ball as Kentucky tests the waters against an unproven Tennessee secondary.

Pick: Over 63.5 or BetterKentucky +13 or Better



No. 15 Ole Miss vs. Texas A&M

Saturday, Oct. 29
7:30 p.m.
SEC Network
Ole Miss -1.5

By Cooper Van Tatenhove

Ole Miss and Texas A&M will meet for just the 14th time on Saturday night in College Station.

Both teams are looking to bounce back from losses last week. Ole Miss was torched by Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense and lost, 45-20. Meanwhile, the Aggies fell to South Carolina, 30-24.

Although Texas A&M came out of Columbia with a loss, the Aggies outgained the Gamecocks, 398-286.

A&M’s inexperienced defense will have yet another test against an Ole Miss offense that has recorded more than 3,500 total yards and 2,000 rushing yards — the only team in the country to do so.

Can Jimbo Fisher start to get production out of his uber-talented Aggies squad? Or will Ole Miss’ offense simply outpace an underperforming Aggies offense?

Let’s dive in.


Ole Miss Rebels

After rattling off seven consecutive wins, Ole Miss was throttled by LSU. Daniels, a dual-threat quarterback, recorded 369 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns for the Tigers.

Daniels exposed an Ole Miss defense built to make teams one-dimensional.

The Rebels defense ranks outside the top 80 in both EPA per Rush and Pass. However, despite the poor numbers, they’ve thwarted opposing offenses enough to allow the offense to win games.

The Ole Miss defense will need to be successful up front against an Aggies rushing attack that’s led by All-American running back Devon Achane.

Although the Rebels have allowed teams to produce a 41.2% Success Rate on the ground, they have been able to limit the explosive plays the Aggies have relied on for much of their limited offensive success.

The Rebel’s defense has allowed a 1.1 explosiveness ranking, which shrinks to just .79 against the run.

Ole Miss’ ability to limit explosiveness will force the Aggies into long and methodical drives, restricting the number of opportunities in which they get to outpace the Rebels offense.

Offensively, Ole Miss has a perfect matchup to get back on track after being held to 90 yards under their season-long average of 490.5 per game last week.

The Aggies rank 81st in Rushing Success Rate, which has been a cornerstone of offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby’s attack so far this season. The Rebels rank top-10 nationally in Offensive Rushing Success Rate (48.9%).

If the Rebels return Zach Evans — who was held out of last weeks game as a precaution — to the lineup, the ground attack gets even more deadly.

Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies’ disappointing season continued this week, as Denver Harris, P.J. Williams and Chris Marshall were all suspended following an incident in the locker room against South Carolina.

This, combined with quarterback Haynes King going down with an injury in the second half, has created a tense environment in College Station.

The one bright spot for this Aggies team has been Achane. The Aggies have relied on him so heavily for offensive production that he has more than double the scrimmage yards of any other player on offense.

Achane’s production will be crucial for an Aggies offense that ranks 103rd in the country in Passing Success Rate (35.5%).

With everything trending toward Fisher sticking with King at quarterback, these passing numbers won’t see a drastic change on Saturday night.

The Texas A&M passing attack has undoubtedly struggled, but it’s also been trending in the right direction. Last week, the Aggies outgained the Gamecocks in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and yards per play.

The Aggies offense was inhibited by its inability to convert scoring opportunities. Texas A&M ranks 103rd in the country and accounts for just 1.83 net points per drive.

In order to compete against an Ole Miss offense that is converting 3.12 net points per drive, the Aggies will need to be more efficient offensively than they have been so far this season.


Ole Miss vs Texas A&M Pick

The success that Achane will have on the ground is undeniable against a Rebels defense that ranks 91st in Rush Success.

Unfortunately for the Aggies, Ole Miss will be able to have the same success offensively, coupled with an ability to test the Aggies through the air.

Look for Texas A&M to continue its poor ability to convert scoring opportunities (87th in Finishing Drives) and to be outpaced by an Ole Miss offense primed to bounce back after underperforming last week.

Pick: Ole Miss -1.5 ⋅ Play to -2.5



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