The Jacksonville Jaguars (13-4) host the Buffalo Bills (12-5) to open Sunday NFL Wild Card Round action on January 11. Kickoff from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville, Fla., is set for 1 p.m. ET. Bills vs Jaguars will broadcast on CBS.
The Jaguars are 1-point favorites over the Bills on the spread (Jaguars -1; -105), with the over/under set at 51.5 total points. The moneyline is priced as a pick'em, with the Jaguars and Bills both at -110.
Below, you can find our Bills vs Jaguars picks for the Wild Card Round, which include predictions for the spread, game total and three player props.
Bills vs Jaguars Picks & Predictions
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Bills vs Jaguars Odds
- Bills vs Jaguars Moneyline: Bills -110, Jaguars -110
- Bills vs Jaguars Spread: Bills +1, Jaguars -1
- Bills vs Jaguars Total: 51.5
NFL odds for the Wild Card Round via bet365
Bills vs Jaguars Spread Prediction
By Chris Raybon
I'm not exactly buying the narrative that this is Josh Allen's Super Bowl year just because there's no Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow or Lamar Jackson in his way.
The Jaguars may have lost double-digit games last season, but this season, they're just the better team under first-year head coach Liam Coen.
And they get to up against a Bills defense that has been flat-out bad defending the run (30th in DVOA). This could be a big game for Travis Etienne, who's enjoyed a bounce-back season, racking up 1,107 rushing yards and 13 total touchdowns. Establishing the run will be key for the Jags as that takes a lot off Trevor Lawrence's plate.
In contrast to the Bills, the Jaguars excel at defending the run game — they're also adept at defending designed quarterback runs, which will key against Allen, who tends to be unleashed in the ground game in the playoffs. Explosives are hard to come by as well against this Jags defense so that could also mitigate James Cook's effectiveness.
I love the Jags at +1.5 and I don't mind the moneyline either.
Pick: Jaguars +1.5 (-120)
Bills vs Jaguars Over/Under Pick
By Billy Ward
While I’m anticipating some offense in the Bills-Jaguars Wild Card game, the total has moved as high as 52 points as of Saturday afternoon – and that’s a big number to clear.
That’s especially true since both teams involved had top-12 scoring defenses, and the Jaguars were sixth in DVOA. Prior versions of the Bills likely could’ve overcome that and still put up a big total, but I’m not sure I trust this season's team to do so.
They’ve had their moments this year, but largely against weaker defenses, which is likely one of the reasons this game is also a Luck Under.
While my colleague Nick Giffen gave out that pick with the line at 52.5, the fact that it’s dropped since then is actually a solid sign on where the sharp action is.
I’m not in the business of fading sharp money or the Luck Rankings, so I’ll be joining them at under 52 at -120 odds via BetMGM.
Pick: Under 52 (-120)
Bills vs Jaguars Player Props: Dalton Kincaid
By Brit Devine
Kincaid went over this number in 8-of-12 games this season and looked healthy in the season finale against the Jets after dealing with nagging knee issues for most of the season.
The Jaguars have one of the toughest run defenses in the NFL, allowing a league-low 1,151 yards rushing to RBs this year and just 3.9 YPC on all run plays combined. This should push the Bills more into the passing game, and there is no doubt that Kincaid is the best option the Bills have.
The Jaguars allowed the 10th-most receiving yards to tight ends this year, the second-most targets to TEs, and the sixth-most receptions.
Kincaid is in line to lead the team in targets in this game, which makes this line look low if it plays out as I see it.
Pick: Dalton Kincaid Over 36.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Bills vs Jaguars Player Props: Josh Allen
By Brit Devine
The books are getting better at adjusting for playoff football, but not to the point that they aren't leaving big edges for us.
Rushing quarterbacks in the NFL playoffs are a cheat code; they tend to put the team on their back in pivotal moments, and Josh Allen is no exception.
Over 13 postseason games, he is averaging 51 rushing yards. When compared to his career average of 39 yards per game in the regular season, we have the data to back this up.
He has gone over this number in 8-of-13 career playoff games and four of the last five playoff games.
No one puts their team on the their back in the postseason like Allen, and we are getting a good number early. I expect this to creep up close to 40 by kickoff.
Pick: Josh Allen Over 33.5 Rushing Yards (-113)
Bills vs Jaguars Anytime Touchdown Pick
Parker Washington has been far too good and far too involved in the Jaguars offense recently to have odds this high.
Washington has 9+ targets in each of the last three games; four of his five touchdowns this season have come in his last eight contests.
He's looked fantastic, and even with the Bills being more of a run funnel, the Jaguars will likely still need to pass a decent amount.
The total is high in this one at 52 points. I have the true odds of Washington scoring a touchdown around +170.
Pick: Parker Washington Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+210)
