The NFL playoffs continue with the Buffalo Bills and Jacksonville Jaguars clashing in the Wild Card Round on Sunday, Jan. 11. Kickoff from EverBank Stadium in Jacksonville is set for 1:00 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast live on CBS.
My player props for this AFC Wild Card game target Josh Allen and Shaq Thompson.
Let's dive into my Bills vs Jaguars player props for NFL Wild Card Sunday.
Bills vs Jaguars Player Props
- Josh Allen Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-128 at DraftKings)
- Shaq Thompson Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-138 at DraftKings)
Bills vs Jaguars Prop Picks, Preview
Josh Allen Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-128)
I was a bit surprised to see his prop this high here, as this is a number he’s only cleared in four of 16 games this season. Obviously, being in the playoffs changes the dynamic for a lot of prop markets, but when it comes to Josh Allen, he’s probably going to be more willing to scramble and put his body on the line now that we’re in the playoffs, which would only limit his ceiling in this market.
Plus, while we would normally expect a more likely trailing, pass-heavy game script in the playoffs, this game is basically a pick’em. The Bills are projected to play with the lead around 43% of the game (that’s the typical rate for a pick’em, not that I��m saying they’ll lead for exactly 43%).
That’s also basically the exact rate they’ve led this season, so I’m not expecting their dropback rate to change much here. This sets up as a pretty typical game script for them.
They’ve also dominated time of possession this season, ranking 1st at just over 33 minutes per game, but the Jaguars rank fifth in TOP themselves, so they could cut into the Bills’ overall play volume by keeping them on the sideline a bit more than usual.
The Jaguars have used Cover 6 at a league-high rate this year and 23% of the time over the last six weeks. Allen has scrambled on 18% of his dropbacks against Cover 6 compared to just 8.1% against all other coverages. Anytime he scrambles, that takes away a potential pass attempt.
Plus, this game is expected to have perfect weather, especially compared to most of the games this weekend.
We actually want Allen to complete most of his passes here. Incomplete passes are brutal for this market and usually lead to a higher % chance they throw again on the next play or push the game into a more pass-heavy script.
So Allen having great weather to complete passes, be efficient, and potentially throw downfield can actually help this stay under.
I’m projecting him closer to 31.5 pass attempts with around a 61% chance to stay Under 33.5.
Pick: Josh Allen Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-128)
Shaq Thompson Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-138)
I realize these props are tougher to grab because they move really fast after I post and bet them. However, they’re still one of my favorite markets to dive into (helps me with offensive player props as well) and are super fun to sweat. I would imagine they grow in popularity over the next few seasons.
Tackling is so essential to the game we love, and prop bettors still haven’t scratched the surface of actually betting on them yet. Once that starts to happen, this market will sharpen up, and it’ll be easier to get more down without lines moving as fast.
The Bills' Shaq Thompson is expected to play through a neck injury, while Terrel Bernard has already been ruled out with a calf injury. In Weeks 13–15, when Bernard was out, Shaq filled in as an every-down linebacker and played 95% of the snaps. During that three-game stretch, his tackle rate on run plays went up from 15.8% to 20.6%, and his tackle rate on completed passes went up from 12.4% to 14.6%.
If you apply his season rates to the matchup against the Jaguars, I have him projected for 6.5 tackles. If you apply his 3-game sample in place of Bernard, I have him closer to 8.1. Needless to say, I’m showing value on him either way, but he carries a ton of upside in this full-time role without Bernard.
Plus, the Bills' scorekeeper has been by far the stingiest when it comes to dishing out assists, so anytime he plays on the road, it increases his chances of picking up assists.
Also, as I mentioned in my Allen prop, the Bills have dominated TOP this season and, as a result, their defense has faced the fewest plays per game.
Facing the Jaguars here, who are fourth in TOP and fourth in plays per game, we could see the defense on the field for more plays, which raises Shaq’s upside.
I’m projecting him closer to 6.8 tackles (but obviously could be even higher given the 3-game split I highlighted without Bernard), with around a 67% chance to clear 5.5.
I’m also going to add some more at 7+ +135 (projected closer to -108) and 10+ +820 (projected closer to +575).
Pick: Shaq Thompson Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-138)
Editor's Note: A parlay of these props is not a formal recommendation. These picks have value as straight bets.
Bills vs Jaguars Player Props
- Josh Allen Under 33.5 Pass Attempts (-128 at DraftKings)
- Shaq Thompson Over 5.5 Tackles + Assists (-138 at DraftKings)
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this story, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer invaluable insight into his process.
