For the NFL Wild Card Round, here are my bets Rams vs Panthers, Packers vs Bears and 49ers vs Eagles.
Also be on the look out for my NFL predictions for Bills vs Jaguars and Chargers vs Patriots early Sunday morning.
For now, let's get into my three Wild Card Round picks and predictions for Saturday, Jan. 10, and Sunday, Jan. 11.
NFL Wild Card Round Picks & Predictions
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 4:30 p.m. (Saturday) | |
  | 8 p.m. (Saturday) | |
  | 4:30 p.m.; (Sunday) | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Rams vs. Panthers
I haven't played this yet, as I'm waiting to see if a 47 or better will flash in the market at any point leading up to kickoff, but this will make my final card.
On the surface, you may think this number is low after the Panthers upset the Rams earlier this season, 31-28 (59 total points).
However, that game just turned into chaos right from the opening kick that the Rams returned deep into Carolina territory (rare against the Panthers and Rams, who have two of the top-three kick-off units in the league, which isn't nothing in terms of starting field position for an under) to set up a short touchdown drive.
The Panthers scored four touchdowns in the game, which came in the following ways:
- Pick 6
- 35-yard touchdown on 3rd and 8
- 33-yard touchdown pass on 4th down
- 42-yard touchdown on 4th down
That's not very repeatable, especially for an offense that generally struggles to create explosive plays, with only Jared Goff having a lower deep passing attempt rate than Bryce Young.
If you remove those three semi-flukey plays, the Panthers averaged just a hair over 4.0 yards per play, which would've ranked dead last among all NFL teams in 2025.
Overall, Carolina had just a 39.3% Success Rate on the day. For reference, only the Browns, Raiders, and Titans finished the season with a sub-40% Success Rate (the Panthers were at 43.7%). Carolina also only had a 37.8% Rushing Success Rate, which was a decent margin below their full-season rate of 41.5% (14th in the NFL).
Bottom line, the Panthers offense didn't do much on a down-to-down basis and easily could've been held to somewhere in the ballpark of 14-17 points, which is where I think they end up more times than not on Saturday afternoon in Charlotte. After all, they failed to clear 17 points ten times in the regular season and averaged only 11.2 offensive points per game against the six other playoff teams they faced.
Keep in mind, this Carolina ground game, which showed flashes earlier this year, has been stuck in the mud in the second half of the season.
- Weeks 1-9: 9th Rush EPA, 6th Rush Success Rate
- Since Week 10: 27th Rush EPA, 29th Rush Success Rate
And if the Panthers' fading rushing attack can't get anything going, that will put the onus on Bryce Young and an anemic aerial attack that ranks 25th in Drop Back EPA. That's not ideal against a zone-heavy Rams defense that can generate pressure without blitzing and will also benefit from the extremely underrated Quentin Lake returning from injury to man the slot.
For what it's worth, Young has a 26-10 TD-INT ratio for his career against man coverage compared to a very poor 12-18 ratio against zone.
If that's the case, the question becomes: can the Rams get into the 30s? It wouldn't surprise anybody if they eclipsed that mark after doing so in nine of 17 regular-season games. Plus, they absolutely shredded the Panthers defense on a down-to-down basis in that regular-season meeting.
LA finished with a whopping 60.8% Success Rate (the Rams led the league at 52.2% for the season) and an obscene 76.2% Rushing Success Rate (exponentially higher than their league-leading 50.1% mark). And if you remove the three killer turnovers, Sean McVay's bunch finished at an absurd clip of .534 EPA per Play. For reference, the Rams also led the league in that department at .229 (sans turnovers).
So, how could things possibly get better for the Panthers in the rematch? Well, for starters, they should have a full deck of cards in the secondary. They played that game without their No. 1 corner Jaycee Horn (concussion) and starting safety Tre'Von Moehrig (suspended). They were also severely shorthanded at linebacker.
Additionally, the Rams could potentially be without starting guard Kevin Dotson for another week. The offensive line just doesn't operate at the same level without Dotson, who ranks third among all guards, per PFF.
We also don't know if Davante Adams (who had two touchdowns in that first meeting) will be 100% healthy, and the Rams are also dealing with a number of injuries in their tight end room, which could impact the heavy personnel packages McVay has used so successfully this year.
It's also noteworthy that Stafford has struggled in recent seasons against his old Los Angeles defensive coordinators, Ejiro Evero and Raheem Morris. In four games vs. those two DCs, Stafford has thrown 10 interceptions.
Additionally, Eviro got the best of the McVay/Shanahan coaching tree offenses this year, with Stafford, Brock Purdy, and Jordan Love all having some of their worst outings of 2025 against the Panthers. Stafford has also struggled a bit in his career against defenses that disguise coverages post-snap. Well, the Panthers do that at the highest rate in the league with a heavy cover-3 base.
Carolina can't generate any pressure, which will always prove problematic against an elite quarterback. However, they generally don't blitz at a super high clip. That's the approach you want to take against Stafford, who absolutely carves up the blitz.
In the first meeting, they did so on 25% of Stafford's drop-backs (higher than their season-long average). The results weren't pretty (5-7 for 108 yards and a touchdown), but I expect that percentage to dip with a healthier back end.
I expect Carolina to focus on taking away explosive plays and trying to confuse Stafford with coverage disguises on third downs to get them off the field.
The Rams should still move the ball with relative ease, but there's a real path here where Carolina can hold LA to 24-28 points.
Plus, the Panthers will at least eat up the clock with a very methodical pace on offense and may be able to sustain a few more drives with a potentially healthier offensive line.
Keep in mind that in the first meeting, the Panthers played even slower than usual, with a -25% pass rate over expectation (lowest of the season), which resulted in the Rams only running 51 plays (20% fewer than their average).
I'll call for a 27-17 Rams win, which is almost where I project this on the dot, but I could also easily see a world where the Rams win in blowout fashion and sit on the ball late. There could also be impactful crosswinds during the game with the potential for rain.
Trending: Since 2004, outdoor wild card games have gone 49-23 (68%) to the under. And when the total closes at 41 or higher? 42-14 to the under. And above the key of 44? 31-10 (75.6%) to the under by an average of 3.25 points per game. If this line holds, the Rams will close as the largest road playoff favorite in the Super Bowl era.
Packers vs. Bears
I played the Packers as a dog earlier in the week and could still only look their way as a small favorite in the rubber match between these divisional rivals.
The forecast is calling for potential snow, which could pique my interest even more in this over, but that will come down to how much and what the wind forecast looks like on game day.
For now, I'm just sticking with Green Bay, which should benefit immensely from last week's bye that allowed them to rest and heal up, while likely also spending the entire week prepping for their wild-card matchup. Look no further than Josh Jacobs stating his knee is as healthy as it has been in quite some time.
Conversely, the Bears went full throttle in a loss against the Lions. I don't think that's an insignificant edge, especially considering both teams had early-season byes in Week 5.
Look, I loved the hire of Ben Johnson and rooted for this Bears team all season long, with a number of futures that luckily ended up hitting.
However, even the most die-hard Bears fan has to admit this team got extremely fortunate. Chicago easily could have finished 0-6 in the division if not for a recovered onside kick (and a few other miracles) against Green Bay and a long kick return in the final seconds against the Vikings.
They still only won two divisional games to become just the second team since 1985 (2010 Chiefs) to win their division with a losing division record.
Additionally, they easily could have lost to the Raiders (won by 1), Commanders (won by 1), Bengals with Joe Flacco (won in the final seconds), Giants (won in the final seconds), and Steelers with Mason Rudolph.
The Bears set an NFL record with six wins when trailing with under two minutes to go, and most came against bad teams with a few backup quarterbacks. That's just not a sustainable way to make a living in the NFL.
Chicago also needed to win all of those close games despite finishing with a league-best +22 turnover margin, leading the league in both takeaways and giveaways. And it's not like Caleb Williams didn't put the ball in harm's way with 19 turnover-worthy plays that only led to six interceptions.
The Bears defense finished No. 1 in Turnover EPA, while the Packers (+1 turnover margin) finished 30th. Don't be surprised if a few bounces go Green Bay's way on Saturday night.
For as lucky as Chicago has been, Green Bay has been just as unlucky, which is one of the reasons why Green Bay qualifies as a luck rankings side this week, per my colleague Nick Giffen.
The Packers somehow went 0-3 in games where they didn't punt. That only happened 11 total this season, and the rest of the league went undefeated in those eight other instances (8-0).
The Packers defense did fade down the stretch following some key injuries (namely to Micah Parsons).
- Weeks 1-10: 14th EPA per Play, 9th Success Rate
- Since Week 11: 27th EPA per Play, 27th Success Rate
However, I'd still take their defense over the Bears, who rank 30th in EPA per Play for the full season, excluding turnovers (Green Bay sits at 13th in that department).
Unless Chicago can come up with more takeaways, I don't see a path to getting many stops. Jordan Love has arguably been the best quarterback in the league in 2025 with a clean pocket, which he should have throughout against a Bears defense that can't generate pressure. Love finished the regular season No. 1 in EPA (Williams 23rd) and DVOA when not pressured.
For as much as Caleb Williams improved this season, he still ranked dead last in CPOE on early downs and was one of only three QBs with a bad-throw rate north of 20% (along with J.J. McCarthy and Michael Penix). For all of 2025, Williams ranked 28th in EPA+CPOE composite; Love ranked third. I'm clearly getting the superior quarterback with the playoff experience edge.
Look, both teams will have success on the ground. The Bears rushing offense is absolutely lethal, but I just trust the Packers to have more success through the air and to connect on more explosive plays, which will ultimately prove to be the difference.
Both offenses rank in the top-10 in both passing and rushing explosiveness. However, while the Packers defense also ranks in the top-10 in both departments, the Bears defense ranks 32nd and 26th, respectively.
Green Bay outplayed Chicago in both regular-season meetings, but lost an extremely flukey game in Chicago last month. I think they get their revenge even in front of a raucous crowd that has been starting for a home playoff game since the infamous Cody Parkey double doink.
Keep in mind it's a divisional game, so home-field advantage is diminished a bit, and the cold weather conditions won't bother Green Bay one bit.
Trending: Since 2002, quarterbacks making their first playoff start against quarterbacks who have playoff experience have gone just 20-40 SU and 20-39 ATS (34%). This also applies to Patriots (Maye) vs. Chargers (Herbert) and Panthers (Young) vs. Rams (Stafford).
49ers vs. Eagles
The 49ers had a chance for a first-round bye and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs (including the Super Bowl), but came up short against Seattle last week. As a result, they must travel across the country to take on an Eagles squad that has gone 5-0 in the postseason at home under Nick Sirriani (compare to 0-2 on the road).
Talk about a drastically more difficult path, especially considering Philly gets to stay home after essentially taking a late-season bye in Week 18 to heal and freshen up — although I'm not sure that will lead to much improvement on the offensive side of the ball.
The Philadelphia offense has fallen off a cliff compared to last year. It all starts with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo, whose predictable, uncreative play-calling led Philadelphia to the top of the league in three-and-out rate. If you like hitch routes and punts, the Patulla offense is your cup of tea.
However, he doesn't deserve all of the blame. The offensive line play has deteriorated due to a number of factors, including a lack of health. On the season, the Eagles rank 30th in Adjusted Line Yards, which has caused the ground game to crumble (29th in Stuff Rate).
And for years, the Philadelphia offensive efficiency has dropped precipitously without star right tackle Lane Johnson, who I don't believe is a lock to return to the lineup at 100% full health on Sunday.
Fortunately for the Eagles, the 49ers defense is horrendous in large part due to a dire injury situation.
Coming into the season, defensive coordinator Robert Saleh knew he had a stars-and-scrubs unit that needed Fred Warner and Nick Bosa to shine, while getting some plus production from a handful of rookies.
Well, both Warner and Bosa went down with serious injuries earlier this season, and the bodies kept on falling on a weekly basis. Even just last week, they lost new starting middle linebacker Tatum Bethune for the entire postseason to a groin injury. Plus, fellow starting backer Dee Winters left with an ankle injury, and their other running mate, Luke Gifford, has a quad issue.
As a result, San Francisco could potentially have to make do without its top-4 linebackers. That's obviously less than ideal against any offense, especially on the highway in the postseason.
Getting back to Bosa and Warner, the 49ers have played without both since Week 7. Over that span, they rank 25th in EPA per Play and 29th in Success Rate (31st in Rush Success Rate). They also have failed to generate any sort of pass rush, with only the Panthers having a lower pressure rate.
So, does that mean the 49ers defense has no chance on Sunday at the Linc? Not necessarily. The Eagles offense can go long stretches where it simply beats itself. We've seen countless quarters, and even halves, where they become completely inept — even against terrible defenses (see: blown lead at Dallas).
I also give a significant coaching edge to San Francisco when it comes to Saleh vs. Patullo. Potential impactful winds could also provide some relief.
I expect Saleh to sit in plenty of conservative zones (which Hurts can struggle against), forcing the Eagles to methodically drive the field and hoping to force field goals when they do get in the red zone.
For all of their underlying offensive warts, Philly has excelled on trips inside the 20 with a league-leading 70% red zone TD rate. However, that's a high-variance metric within one season. Last year's superior Eagles offense converted only 58% of red-zone visits into touchdowns, so some potential negative regression looms in that department.
The 49ers defense is particularly vulnerable over the middle of the field, but that's not really a primary focal point of this Patullo offense — although Dallas Goedert has historically shone in the postseason and could be in for a big game here.
While the much-maligned Philly offense has struggled throughout the season, the opposite holds true for its elite defense.
The Eagles rank fifth in DVOA and really have no glaring weakness outside of the second cornerback spot, which the 49ers may not have the capability of fully exploiting if Ricky Pearsall either can't suit up or plays at less than 100%. There's also a chance that star left tackle Trent Williams is unable to return from his injury, which would be a massive blow against a ferocious Philly front.
Additionally, Vic Fangio has historically bottled up the Kyle Shanahan offense. Look no further than their five head-to-head meetings in which Shanahan's teams have only averaged 10.25 points per game, failing to clear 15 points in any meeting.
How will the 49ers consistently move the ball? I'm not sure. They've had no explosiveness in the running game, and the short passing attack will likely struggle against a Philadelphia defense that ranks No. 1 in the NFL in that department. The Eagles also rank No. 1 against opposing tight ends, which could keep George Kittle in check.
While Brock Purdy and the 49ers offense looked unstoppable at times down the stretch, they primarily did so against porous (and beat-up) defenses. In seven matchups against top-10 DVOA defenses, the 49ers only averaged 18.7 points per game in regulation, but let's just focus on the nine Purdy starts, which paint a very clear picture.
The 49ers exploded for an average of 42 points against the banged-up defenses of the Colts, Titans, Cardinals and Bears. However, in Purdy's other five starts against more formidable stop units, San Francisco only averaged 17.4 points per game. That includes 20 against a subpar Carolina defense, which forced Purdy into three interceptions and a misleading 26-point outing against Cleveland, which held the 49ers to 252 yards and less than 4.0 yards per play.
That average of 17 feels like the ceiling for this San Francisco offense (especially if not fully healthy) without flukes (the Eagles rarely turn it over).
So, can the 49ers keep the Eagles out of the 30s? I believe so, especially considering Philly has only scored 30-plus four times this season.
They had their best offensive performance of the season (38 points) vs. a bruised and battered Giants defense and barely squeaked over that mark with 31 points against the Bucs and Raiders. The other instance came against the Rams (33) only due to a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown with no time remaining.
For all of its issues, San Francisco's defense has done an adequate job of limiting explosive plays and getting stops in the red zone. If they can do both on Sunday, this game should stay under.
And even if the Eagles offense has an early explosion, this under would still have plenty of life since Philadelphia is fully capable of bleeding out the clock with a sizable second-half lead like a service academy in college, so a 28-10 game that dies in the fourth quarter certainly is in the cards. Don't forget this is an Eagles team that won an NFL record two games without a second-half completion.
This under has dropped a bit, but I'd still play it down to 44.5.
Trending: Since 2003, postseason unders in outdoor games with average wind speed of more than 10 mph have gone 20-8-2 (71.4%) against the closing total — staying under by more than six points per game.
