Broncos vs. Jets Staff Betting Picks For Thursday Night Football (Oct. 1)
Al Pereira/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Darnold
With a 41-point total, it’s no wonder our staff’s best bets for the Broncos vs. Jets on Thursday Night Football are correlated to low scoring.
They break down their picks below.
Broncos vs. Jets Picks
Brandon Anderson: Jets Under 20.5 Points
So … this is a rough one. We’ve had some real clunkers on Thursday Night Football, but man, this is a real snooze-fest. The best way to make this one interesting would be to suspend Trevor Lawrence in a giant steel cage above the 50-yard line to remind these teams what they’re losing for.
The Jets and Broncos have been maybe the two worst teams in the NFL through three weeks. And they’re certainly among the most injured. The Jets are missing just about every running back and receiver on the roster along with one or both offensive tackles. Denver’s list isn’t quite as long but the names are bigger: Von Miller, Courtland Sutton, A.J. Bouye and Drew Lock.
Lock’s absence has opened the door for Brett Rypien to make his first career start, meaning both of these offenses are extremely crippled. Naturally, that puts the under in play. The only problem is the line is at 41, a number a handful of teams have scored on their own this season.
There’s only one unit I trust in this game (at least a little), and that is Denver’s defense. The Broncos have allowed a respectable 23.3 points per game thus far against Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Tampa Bay, three likely playoff teams with good quarterbacks. The Jets are not that and are scoring just 12.3 points per game themselves.
I’m playing the Jets under 20.5. I’m not sure either team will score much and I can’t believe the Jets are really favored in a game after losing by 29 last week. The Jets under is a sort of a middle way to fade the overall line and the Jets all at once.
I’ll play the under 20.5 to -135, but would sit out if this drops below 20.
Sean Koerner: Jets TE Chris Herndon Under 35.5 Rec Yards (-110)
Chris Herndon failed to capitalize on the Jets’ laundry list of wide receiver injuries over the past two games — not to mention both were blowouts, which should have resulted in defenses allowing him plenty of garbage-time chances.
Well, tonight’s game should be “competitive” for all four quarters, and target-hog Jamison Crowder makes his return. And add in the fact that rookie left tackle Mekhi Becton (shoulder) is expected to miss the game — meaning Herndon will likely stay in to block more — and I love the under on his receiving prop.
I explain in more depth why the under has value here, but I have Herndon projected for 3.6 receptions and a median of 29.5 yards tonight, and my player prop simulator has him finishing under 35.5 yards 61.8% of the time. Every yard counts, so make sure you get the best line.
I would bet this down to 32.5 yards.