Browns-Ravens Betting Preview: Buy or Fade Baltimore in Must-Win Game?

Betting odds: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

• Spread: Ravens -5.5
• Over/Under: 41
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV channel: CBS

Betting market: Betting activity hasn't been boring in this game. Baltimore fell from -6 to -4.5 on Sunday night, but was back to -6 by Monday afternoon.

It's down to -5.5 as of writing (see live odds here), though the Ravens are still commanding the majority of bets (56%) and dollars (56%). — Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The 9-6 Ravens have outscored opponents by 100 points this season for the second-best point differential in the AFC. And according to Pythagorean expectations, Baltimore is underperforming despite ranking first in the AFC North.

It's been profitable to bet good teams that have underperformed their point differential, like the Ravens, in December or later in the season.— John Ewing

The Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives, but a game that would have been circled as an easy win in the preseason no longer fits that bill.

The Browns are 7-7-1, hasn't historically gone well for John Harbaugh and crew. The Ravens are 4-9-1 (30.8%) against the spread at home against a divisional opponent that's .500 or better, including 2-8-1 (20%) ATS when listed as a favorite in this spot. — Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Ravens can land the 2-, 3-, 4- or 6-seed, depending on how Sunday goes. The 4-seed is by far the most likely possibility, happening in 58.1% of our simulations.

To win the AFC North, the Ravens either need to win or have the Steelers lose/tie.

Cleveland is completely eliminated from playoff contention. — Scott T. Miller

Biggest mismatch: Ravens' Rush Offense, Pass Defense & Special Teams

We already know the handicap when it comes to the Ravens: They're going to run the ball as much as any team. Since Lamar Jackson took over, they've run the ball at a pace the league has yet to see. They've had plenty of success doing so, but it's part smoke and mirrors.

The Ravens have faced some of the NFL's worst rush defenses since Jackson took over under center. He'll face another subpar run D on Sunday as the Browns have allowed 4.5 yards per rush (18th) and rank 21st in Football Outsiders' rush defense DVOA.

The Ravens are going to run it 40 times and have success doing so.

When they do need to pass, Ronnie Stanley can neutralize Myles Garrett. Jackson will also have an easier time throwing if Denzel Ward (concussion), who didn't practice against Wednesday, isn't in the mix for the Browns.

Meanwhile, the Ravens' elite secondary can really neutralize a subpar Browns receiving corps while taking advantage of a weak group of offensive tackles with one of the best edge rushes in the NFL. It's also worth noting that the Ravens rank first against opposing running backs in the passing game, which is where Baker Mayfield excels.

The only weak area of the Ravens' pass defense has been covering tight ends, but David Njoku isn't winning this game on his own.

While there are significant matchups that favor the Ravens on both offense and defense, the biggest mismatch will come on special teams.

Baltimore has one of the NFL's best units, while the Browns are in the basement with the 32nd ranked unit in DVOA.

The Browns have been particularly bad at punting, where they rank 31st in average net (39.4) and will face a Ravens team that ranks in the top five in punt return average.

Cleveland has also been poor at returning kicks, ranking 28th in average. And I don't even have to mention the massive discrepancy at kicker between the best kicker in NFL history and some guy named Greg.

The Ravens are a great tease piece — I teased them along with the Titans — but I think you have to take the Browns if this line ever gets above +7. — Stuckey

Which team is healthier? Browns

Neither team will rest starters in a must-win game for the Ravens. The Browns defense could be without Ward (concussion) and linebacker Xavier Woodson-Luster (neck), but they’re otherwise healthy.

The Ravens aren't too bad, either. Only field-stretcher John Brown (hamstring), slot cornerback Tavon Young (groin) and pass-rusher Terrell Suggs (hamstring) appear to be dealing with somewhat significant injuries.

The offense is expected to welcome back left guard Alex Lewis (shoulder).

Note: Info as of 6 p.m. ET Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff. — Ian Hartitz

DFS edge:Jackson should be all systems go in this game. Since taking over as the starter, he’s been the most efficient fantasy quarterback in the league, averaging 0.82 DraftKings and 0.80 FanDuel points per game.

He boasts the third-highest Projected Plus/Minus among QB on DraftKings and FanDuel in our FantasyLabs Models. — Justin Bailey

Bet to watch: 6-point teaser — Browns +13; Under 47.5

The Ravens are 5-1 in Jackson's six career starts, but only one of those wins (against the hapless Raiders) came by 13 or more points — and even in that game, they needed a fourth quarter defensive touchdown to pull it off.

Because of its run-heavy, clock-draining scheme under Jackson, Baltimore isn't built to blow teams out. And Cleveland isn't your typical unmotivated team in Week 17.

The Browns have no shot to make the playoffs, but if you think Mayfield & Co. will be checked out, you haven't been paying attention to the post-Hue Jackson era in Cleveland.

In terms of the under, Baltimore's expected slow pace certainly plays a factor, but it's not the whole reason for the handicap.

Neither of these offenses is especially explosive or efficient — and it isn't because they've had a brutal schedule of opposing defenses.

The Browns and Ravens have faced the fifth- and fourth-easiest schedules of opposing defenses, respectively, per DVOA. — Scott T. Miller

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.