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Browns-Ravens Betting Preview: Buy or Fade Baltimore in Must-Win Game?

Dec 30, 2018 8:25 AM EST
Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Baker Mayfield, Lamar Jackson

Betting odds: Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens

  • Spread: Ravens -5.5
  • Over/Under: 41
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Thursday evening. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: Betting activity hasn’t been boring in this game. Baltimore fell from -6 to -4.5 on Sunday night, but was back to -6 by Monday afternoon.

It’s down to -5.5 as of writing (see live odds here), though the Ravens are still commanding the majority of bets (56%) and dollars (56%). Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The 9-6 Ravens have outscored opponents by 100 points this season for the second-best point differential in the AFC. And according to Pythagorean expectations, Baltimore is underperforming despite ranking first in the AFC North.

It’s been profitable to bet good teams that have underperformed their point differential, like the Ravens, in December or later in the season. John Ewing

The Ravens are fighting for their playoff lives, but a game that would have been circled as an easy win in the preseason no longer fits that bill.

The Browns are 7-7-1, hasn’t historically gone well for John Harbaugh and crew. The Ravens are 4-9-1 (30.8%) against the spread at home against a divisional opponent that’s .500 or better, including 2-8-1 (20%) ATS when listed as a favorite in this spot. Evan Abrams

Playoff picture: The Ravens can land the 2-, 3-, 4- or 6-seed, depending on how Sunday goes. The 4-seed is by far the most likely possibility, happening in 58.1% of our simulations.

To win the AFC North, the Ravens either need to win or have the Steelers lose/tie.

Cleveland is completely eliminated from playoff contention. Scott T. Miller