NFL Week 14 closes with the Philadelphia Eagles and Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football.
The Eagles enter MNF on a two-game losing streak following defeats to the Cowboys and Bears. The Chargers, meanwhile, have won two of their last three games.
- For more Monday Night Football coverage, check out our Eagles vs Chargers preview, which includes four picks for MNF.
Tonight, I'm targeting Chargers LB Daiyan Henley in the prop market as I believe there's an edge on his tackles + assists prop. Find my over/under prop bet for Henley below.
NFL Prop Bet: Daiyan Henley Over/Under Prediction
Daiyan Henley has seen his tackle production fall off a cliff over the last several games; he's cleared this number only once in his last six contests.
In his last game, it was notable that he rushed the passer a season-high 16 times. Anytime a linebacker rushes the passer, it lowers his tackle chances significantly.
Elite pass-rushers like Aidan Hutchinson typically have tackle props in the 3.5 range, compared to when a LB is lined up in the box and is much more likely to be near a tackle opportunity.
As a result, Henley only had three tackles last week. One of them was a split sack with Derwin James on Geno Smith, and another came on a broken run play where Smith was tripped up by G Atonio Mafi and fell backward, allowing Henley to tap him down for a cheap tackle. The way Henley has been getting tackles recently has been fluky.
To make matters worse, he faces the most brutal matchup for a LB in terms of tackle opportunities. The Eagles have been the worst team in the league at setting up LBs with chances, and I pointed this out the other week where not only were LBs finishing below expectations against them, but many posted season lows.
While I’m not expecting a season-low output, I have Henley closer to 5.9 tackles + assists with around a 62% chance to stay under 6.5.
The Chargers’ scorekeeper also dishes out assists at a bottom-4 rate, so it’s the perfect storm of underlying factors working against Henley in this market tonight.
Pick: Daiyan Henley Under 6.5 Tackles + Assists (-101)
Note: If lines/odds move by the time you read this, make sure to follow Sean in the Action Network app to get alerts when he places a bet. These writeups, however, still offer insights into his process.
