Dolphins vs. Patriots Betting Odds & Pick: Can Ryan Fitzpatrick Solve New England’s Defense?

Dolphins at Patriots Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds

• Odds: Patriots -16
• Over/Under: 44.5
• Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: CBS

Odds as of Thursday and via DraftKings, where Action Network users get a risk-free bet up to $500.

When these two teams faced off in Week 2, the Patriots closed as 18-point favorites — a number they easily covered.

The public seems to think the Dolphins have a better shot at covering another double-digit spread as 64% of tickets are backing them as of Thursday compared to 38% in September.

Will this game be a repeat of the first installment? Our experts preview the key matchups to watch for in this game and make their pick.

Dolphins-Patriots Injury Report

Which team is healthier? Dolphins

Everyone on the Dolphins’ injury report has at least been limited, suggesting they’re all trending towards playing. Allen Hurns (ankle/neck) was limited, but that’s been the case for him the past few weeks.

Per usual, Julian Edelman (knee/shoulder) has been limited in practice, but he’s still been suiting up every Sunday. Other names to monitor include cornerbacks Jason McCourty (groin) and Jonathan Jones (groin), along with linebacker Jaimie Collins (shoulder). Collins grades out as one of Pro Football Focus' best pass rushers on their team. — Justin Bailey

Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.

Biggest Mismatch

Patriots Pass Defense vs. Dolphins Pass Offense

Limiting opposing passers to NFL-lows in completion percentage (55.7%), yards per attempt (5.8), TD rate (2.7%), and interception rate (5.1%) this season, the Patriots defense has been nothing short of a gauntlet where opposing quarterbacks go to die (no wonder Sam Darnold was “seeing ghosts” — he was already dead).

Look for Bill Belichick’s unit to coax Ryan Fitzpatrick into mistakes, as he has thrown 13 interceptions in 12 starts and is not one to check the ball down (his 18.8% target rate to running backs is well below the league average), while the Patriots rank No. 1 schedule-adjusted efficiency on targets to wide receivers and No. 5 vs. tight ends, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA

On the Week 17 Fantasy Flex Podcast, I told Sean Koerner and Matthew Freedman that Fitzpatrick’s matchup against New England essentially broke my interception model, popping with a ghastly projection of 1.7 picks for Fitzpatrick — to which Koerner immediately responded, “over!”

Fitzpatrick has been a DFS revelation this season, hitting value in eight of his past 10 games on DraftKings with a Plus/Minus of +6.32, but our FantasyLabs NFL Player Models have Fitzpatrick pegged for the second-worst value among all quarterbacks on the Week 17 slate. — Chris Raybon

PRO System Match

Unders have been a smart play in division matchups as increased familiarity between teams creates a lower-scoring environment — unders have gone 843-744-29 (53.1%) since 2003.

It may seem obvious to some bettors, but it’s been more profitable to take the under in division games with high totals (more than 44 points) — it’s just easier for unders to cash when more points are expected to be scored.

Following this Pro System, bettors have gone 195-114-3 (63.1%) since 2003. A $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $7,135 following this strategy.

The Patriots-Dolphins total has increased a full point from 43.5, but history suggests the under is the smart play. — John Ewing

PRO Systems are data-driven betting strategies that turn winning long-term trends into easy-to-follow picks, all handpicked and monitored by our team of analysts. Try Action PRO now and instantly access real-time game matches for every PRO System.

Expert Pick

Matthew Freedman: Dolphins +16

I respect the Patriots, but they're not as dominant as they once were, and they're dealing with injuries to starting cornerbacks Jason McCourty (groin) and Jonathan Jones (groin).

Against free-wheeling downfield-throwing nothing-to-lose quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, the absence of McCourty and Jones could be significant.

Say what you want about the Dolphins — they've allowed an NFL-high 31.3 points per game — but at least they are giving full effort and playing as if they want to win.

And they have been significantly better since their Week 5 bye.

• Weeks 1-4 (four games): -34.3 point differential | 6.5 points scored | 40.8 points allowed
• Weeks 5-16 (11 games): -4.9 point differential | 23 points scored | 27.9 points allowed

After going 0-4 against the spread in September, the Dolphins are 8-3 ATS (40.6% ROI) since the bye week.

Freedman is 542-411-22 (56.9%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.