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Colts-Patriots TNF Betting Preview: How to Find Value in this Over/Under

Oct 04, 2018 12:00 AM EDT

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Andrew Luck, Tom Brady

Betting odds: Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

  • Spread: Patriots -10
  • Over/Under: 51
  • Time: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: FOX/NFL Network/Amazon Prime

>> All odds as of Wednesday. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets

Betting market: It looks like Tom Brady and the Patriots have done enough to convince the market that they’re back, as more than 60% of bettors are backing them as a 10-point favorite as of writing (see live data here).

Sharp bettors haven’t disagreed, either, as the line has yet to move in favor of the Colts. Where there is some disagreement is on the total. Sixty percent of bets are on the over, but more than 70% of the money is on the under.

There was also a steam move triggered on the under. As a result, the total has fallen from 53 to 51 since opening. Mark Gallant

Trends to know: The Pats easily dispatched the Dolphins last week 38-7, but don’t be so quick to lay the points with the favorite here. Casual bettors tend to overvalue what they saw most recently, and oddsmakers know this, which means it has been profitable to fade teams following big wins.

Since 2003, betting against teams after a home win by 21 or more points has returned +42.1 units of profit. John Ewing

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