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Difference in Bets, Money Moving Colts-Patriots Over/Under

Oct 03, 2018 10:14 AM EDT
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Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck

  • The over/under for the Indianapolis Colts-New England Patriots (8:20 p.m. ET) Thursday Night Football game has dropped 1.5 points since opening.
  • We use our proprietary data to break down what's responsible for the line movement.

There are a handful of factors responsible for moving NFL betting lines, including injuries, weather, one-sided money, wagers from respected/professional bettors, etc.

As a result, it’s important for all bettors to understand the factors that influence line movement before placing their own wagers.

For example, a line moving due to a key injury is simply an adjustment to account for the loss of a player, while a move reacting to sharp betting action is noteworthy because it potentially reveals where value lies in that game.

According to The Action Network’s NFL live odds page, the over/under for Thursday night’s Indianapolis Colts-New England Patriots matchup opened at 53 and has since trickled down to 51.5.

So what’s responsible for this over/under movement?

Our public money data is reporting that 64% of betting tickets are on the over, but 69% of dollars wagered are actually on the under.

Because 36% of bets account for 69% of the money, we know that the larger wagers are on the under, convincing oddsmakers to drop the total 1.5 points.

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