Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports Pictured: Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck
- The over/under for the Indianapolis Colts-New England Patriots (8:20 p.m. ET) Thursday Night Football game has dropped 1.5 points since opening.
- We use our proprietary data to break down what's responsible for the line movement.
There are a handful of factors responsible for moving NFL betting lines, including injuries, weather, one-sided money, wagers from respected/professional bettors, etc.
As a result, it’s important for all bettors to understand the factors that influence line movement before placing their own wagers.
For example, a line moving due to a key injury is simply an adjustment to account for the loss of a player, while a move reacting to sharp betting action is noteworthy because it potentially reveals where value lies in that game.
According to The Action Network’s NFL live odds page, the over/under for Thursday night’s Indianapolis Colts-New England Patriots matchup opened at 53 and has since trickled down to 51.5.
So what’s responsible for this over/under movement?
Our public money data is reporting that 64% of betting tickets are on the over, but 69% of dollars wagered are actually on the under.
Because 36% of bets account for 69% of the money, we know that the larger wagers are on the under, convincing oddsmakers to drop the total 1.5 points.