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Jaguars-Chiefs Betting Preview: Will K.C. and Mahomes Stay Hot?

Oct 07, 2018 11:53 PM EDT

Betting odds: Jacksonville Jaguars at Kansas City Chiefs

  • Spread: Chiefs -3
  • Over/Under: 49
  • Time: 1 p.m. ET
  • TV channel: CBS

>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets


Betting market: At the time of writing, spread bets are split almost exactly down the middle, which is a bit surprising given the Chiefs’ success so far.

In fact, it’s Jacksonville that is getting the slight majority of bets, not Kansas City. Nevertheless, the line is having a hard time moving off of the key number of three.

At BookMaker, it moved up to 3.5 for a grand total of one minute all week before heading back.

Since Wednesday, the juice on K.C.’s side has been waffling between -115 and -120, so it appears that the next move (if there is one) would be back to 3.5 (see live betting data here).Mark Gallant

Trends to know: Leonard Fournette will miss Sunday’s game. Since drafting the former LSU running back, the Jaguars have played five games without him. And outside of a dud vs. Tennessee earlier this season, their offense hasn’t been that bad:

  • 2018 vs. Titans: Lost, 9-6 (4.6 yds/rush)
  • 2018 vs. Patriots: Won, 31-20 (4.3 yds/rush)
  • 2017 vs. Texans: Won, 45-7 (3.6 yds/rush)
  • 2017 vs. Bengals: Won, 23-7 (3.7 yds/rush)
  • 2017 at Colts: Won, 27-0 (5.1 yds/rush) — Evan Abrams

Meteorology matters: Wind looks like it could be a factor at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday. (Forecasts tend to fluctuate so be sure to check the weather as the game gets closer.)

Jags quarterback Blake Bortles hasn’t fared well in windy conditions (10 mph or more). The UCF product is 1-3 against the spread and his stats are very underwhelming (82-for-162, 5 TDs, 9 INTs). — Evan Abrams

When the forecast calls for winds of 10 mph or greater and a game has a high total (44 or more points), it has been profitable to bet the under since 2003. — John Ewing

Matchup to watch: Jaguars pass defense vs. QB Patrick Mahomes

The Jaguars pass defense ranks first in the NFL with 164.2 passing yards per game. This will be a big step up in competition for Mahomes, who has faced four defenses with the following ranks in that same category this season:

  • Chargers: 275.8 (21st)
  • Steelers: 304.8 (29th)
  • 49ers: 276.2 (22nd)
  • Broncos: 273 (20th)

Yes, the Chiefs contributed some to those depressed rankings, but going from four bottom-10 pass defenses to the best (on a short week) is not ideal. — Stuckey

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Credit:

USA Today Sports. Pictured: Calais Campbell, Patrick Mahomes

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