We have you covered with a total of six NFL player prop picks for the Week 17 Christmas slate on Thursday, Dec. 25.
Our staff has locked in prop bets for every game of the Christmas slate: Cowboys vs Commanders, Lions vs Vikings and Broncos vs Chiefs.
Let's dig into our NFL player props and best bets for NFL Christmas.
NFL Player Props — Christmas
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NFL Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Cowboys vs Commanders
Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (+128)
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on the receptions prop for Deebo Samuel.
THE BLITZ is projecting Samuel to record 5.8 receptions against the Cowboys — the oddsmakers are implying 4.6.
The model believes there is a 61% chance he records at least 4.5 receptions, so there is value on the over at +128. Samuel has recorded at least five receptions in 7-of-14 games this season.
This play is good down to at least -114.
Pick: Deebo Samuel Over 4.5 Receptions (+128; bet to -144)
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Cowboys vs Commanders
George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
The Commanders have been one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL this season and are susceptible to WRs (they have given up the sixth-most TDs to WRs).
George Pickens has been Dak Prescott's go-to target this season. Pickens has 21 red-zone targets, and he's also a threat to take one deep from anywhere on the field.
I have Pickens at close to a 50% chance of scoring on Christmas.
Pick: George Pickens Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+135)
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Lions vs Vikings
Max Brosmer Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (+102)
By Derek Carty
THE BLITZ is forecasting 40.02 pass attempts for Max Brosmer, who is set to make his second start of the season for the injured J.J. McCarthy.
The oddsmakers' implied projection is 33.10 pass attempts, so I believe there is some value here.
If you take the over, you’d be projected to win 82% of the time, resulting in a 65% ROI with expected value of $64.95 (based on a $100 wager). This play is good down to at least -245.
Pick: Max Brosmer Over 30.5 Pass Attempts (+102; bet to -245)
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Lions vs Vikings
Jordan Addison Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+320)
By Grant Neiffer
While Jordan Addison hasn't scored a touchdown since mid-November, he should have had multiple TDs in the last few games after dropping one in the end zone last week and being stopped just short several other times.
Max Brosmer may not be a great QB, but the matchup is good against the Lions, who have a beat-up secondary due to injuries. The Vikings are 7.5-point underdogs,which means a passing game script is likely.
I have the true odds on Addison scoring around +275.
Pick: Jordan Addison Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+320)
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Broncos vs Chiefs
Evan Engram Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
By Derek Carty
There is a value opportunity on Evan Engram's receiving yards prop.
THE BLITZ is projecting Engram to record 21.65 receiving yards, while sportsbooks are implying 32.44. The model believes there is a 71% chance he records fewer than 28.5 receiving yards, so there is some value on the under at -110. Engram has gone under 28.5 yards in 6-of-14 games this season.
This play is good down to at least -163.
Pick: Evan Engram Under 28.5 Receiving Yards (-110; bet to -163)
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Broncos vs Chiefs
Kareem Hunt Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-155)
By Nick Galaida
Now that the Chiefs are mathematically eliminated from the NFL playoffs, they should be less incentivized to involve 30-year-old Kareem Hunt.
In Week 16, he played a season-low 11 snaps, with Isiah Pacheco receiving eight of the team’s 11 carries that went to the running back position.
Kansas City will likely be in a trailing game script as a heavy 13.5-point underdog, which should further reduce the team's opportunities on the ground.
If Hunt is truly being phased out of the offense, this number is simply too high.
Pick: Kareem Hunt Under 6.5 Rush Attempts (-155)
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