Happy NFL Christmas!
This year, Christmas Day features a Week 17 NFL tripleheader with Cowboys vs Commanders (1 p.m. ET), Lions vs Vikings (4:30 p.m. ET) and Broncos vs Chiefs (8:15 p.m. ET) in the final Thursday Night Football game of the season.
Our experts — Nick Giffen and Billy Ward — are all over all three games with parlays, props (for David Montgomery, Bo Nix, Dak Prescott and more) and exotics. Find their NFL predictions and picks in our Christmas preview below.
NFL Christmas Predictions
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Cowboys vs Commanders Player Props
Dak Prescott Longest Completion Under 38.5 Yards (-115)
By Nick Giffen
Dak Prescott’s median longest completion this year is 38 yards, and his longest completion in the first meeting against Washington was also his longest of the season at 74 yards.
But I think he stays under his season-long median here.
Since Commanders CB Marshon Lattimore went down with a season-ending injury in Week 9, the Commanders have shifted from a man-heavy, single-high defensive approach to a zone-heavy, two-high safety dominant scheme.
What that’s done is drastically reduce the explosive plays the Commanders give up. From Weeks 1-9, their median longest allowed was 57 yards, but since Week 10 it’s been 36 yards — and just 31 yards if we remove the anomalous single-high, man-heavy approach they took against rookie QB Jaxson Dart in Week 15.
Against Prescott, you want to play more zone to keep the potent WR duo of CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens somewhat in check.
Prescott has had a 19.3% higher efficiency vs. man coverage than zone coverage by adjusted net yards per attempt. And in terms of raw yardage, Prescott throws for 2.5 yards less per completion against zone than man.
I think the Commanders use a high rate of two-high, zone coverage and keep Prescott and his receiving crew somewhat in check.
Javonte Williams Receptions Ladder
By Nick Giffen
I don’t mind laying the juice here. As a starting point (over 1.5 receptions), Javonte Williams has cleared that total in 9-of-15 games, which would equate to -150 as fair odds — but I think there’s an even better chance he clears that here.
As I mentioned above, since Week 10 the Commanders have become a zone-heavy team, and in that time frame they’ve allowed 4.5 targets per game and 3.5 receptions per game to players aligned in the backfield, compared to 3.3 targets per game and 2.7 receptions per game prior to the Lattimore injury.
With the Commanders operating as the fourth-most zone heavy team and playing the highest rate of two-high safety looks since the Lattimore injury (outside of the Jaxson Dart week in Week 15), that bodes well for Williams targets.
Williams' targets per route run (TPRR) increases from 0.07 against man to 0.17 against zone, and 0.09 against single-high safety looks to 0.19 vs two-high safety looks.
This is the ideal spot for him as he’s expected to be about 22% more efficient as a receiver than his season-long average, per Fantasy Points data.
I certainly don’t mind a ladder play, as Williams has hit 3+ in one-third of his games, and 5+ in 20% of his games. Sure, as heavy favorites the overall passing volume may be down a touch for Dallas, but there’s enough wiggle room from a 20% season-long rate to the 7.7% implied odds at +1200 in an otherwise great matchup for him.
Picks (using bet365):
- Over 1.5 receptions: -140
- 3+: +220
- 4+: +600
- 5+: +1200
1st Turnover Committed — Commanders (+110)
By Billy Ward
I have no idea why the Commanders, who are starting third-string QB Josh Johnson, are the underdogs in the first turnover market.
They’ve both given away more turnovers and taken away less than the Cowboys this season, and that was with better quarterback play for much of the season. The Commanders are also heavy underdogs, which, on paper, means a much higher passing rate, and greater chances for turnovers in general.
The bigger threat to this prop might be that neither team involved turns the ball over, but we could hedge against that chance with a small bet on no turnover at +1200 odds.
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Lions vs Vikings Player Props
David Montgomery Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
By Billy Ward
David Montgomery has been somewhat phased out of Detroit’s offense in recent weeks, but that has more to do with game script than any desire by the Lions to keep the ball out of his hands.
In the past, the Lions had more of an even timeshare between Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, but this season they’ve shifted to relying on Gibbs in close/negative game scripts, while using Montgomery more when protecting a lead. Detroit’s devastated defense hasn’t allowed many games like that in recent weeks – but Christmas could be different.
They’re facing a Vikings team quarterbacked by Max Brosmer, who took four sacks and threw four interceptions in his previous start this season against the Seahawks. Detroit is favored by six and theoretically alive for the NFL playoffs and will thus be playing this game all out, while Minnesota would be better served to lose out and improve draft position.
All of this means Detroit should be able to play from out front, which means more Montgomery against a Vikings team that ranks 20th in adjusted line yards on defense.
Our projections have Montgomery going for 37 yards, but I’ll also be laddering this one up to 60+ yards (+435). He’s rushed for at least 57 yards in five of the Lions' seven wins by eight or more points this season.
1st Turnover Committed — Vikings (+105)
By Billy Ward
Getting Minnesota at plus-money in this market is even more baffling than the Commanders. The Lions have given the ball away the least of any team in the NFL this season while the Vikings have given it away the most.
They’re also starting Max Brosmer at QB, and he threw four interceptions in his previous start this season. Detroit is favored enough that it’ll likely stick to the ground game as much as it can, particularly against a run-funnel Vikings defense (5th in DVOA against the pass, 15th against the run).
The Chris Oladoku-led Chiefs are also plus-money in this market, so for fun I’ll also be throwing in a parlay of all three underdogs to give the ball away first, which works out to total odds of +825 on DraftKings.
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Broncos vs Chiefs Parlay
By Nick Giffen
We get some nice negative correlation with a Bo Nix TD and the Chiefs covering this alternate spread, which boosts the odds to +1100. But there probably shouldn’t be as much negative correlation as DraftKings is giving us.
This game has a total of just 36.5 points, so one touchdown is already going to make up nearly 20% of the expected scoring. A Nix touchdown only gives Denver likely seven points, which means the Chiefs can withstand another TD, let alone more points should they score some of their own.
The Chiefs are the unlucky team getting an A+ grade by our Luck Rankings, so this is a nice way to back them while getting some boosted odds.
Parlay: Bo Nix TD + Chiefs +14.5 alt spread (+1100; DraftKings)
Bo Nix Over 13.5 Rushing Yards
By Nick Giffen
Bo Nix has failed to clear this line in three of his last eight starts, but I’m eyeing the over here.
Early in the season, Kansas City’s defense was a top-three defense for QB scrambles. However, since their Week 10 bye, the Chiefs have actually been slightly below average.
There doesn’t seem to be a rational explanation for it in coverage. Since their bye week, the Chiefs have played both two-high safety and man coverage at higher rates than before the bye. Higher rates of both these typically lead to more scrambles.
Additionally, while their pressure rate has gone down a touch, they have still been a top-10 pressure team post-bye.
The biggest explanation is probably blitz rate, which has gone up a full 10% post-bye. Overall, QBs scramble on 1.6% fewer dropbacks when blitzed than not.
However, Nix isn’t a QB you necessarily want to blitz. Per Fantasy Points data, Nix has an 8:1 TD:INT ratio when blitzed, and he has been a full 1.7 yards better in adjusted net yards per attempt (ANY/A) when extra men are sent at him.
Instead, you should keep men in coverage against Nix and force him to make throws into coverage, where he has a 16:9 TD:INT ratio.
By dropping men into coverage and with the Chiefs' ability to get pressure, that’ll force Nix to scramble more than he has been as of late.
Bo Nix Anytime Touchdown (+425); 2+ TDs (+5000)
By Nick Giffen
For the same reasons I’m taking his over on rushing yards, Nix is a great bet to score himself a Christmas touchdown.
He has a touchdown in 7-of-33 career games, which would equate to +372 odds if that continues as his long-term TD rate, but for the same reasons I like his over on rushing yards, this should be a spot to back a higher expected anytime TD rate.
The Chiefs have allowed the third-most TDs to QBs this year, so there’s no reason not to bet Nix at +450. I also don’t mind laddering 2+ TDs at +4500. Nix has done that once in his career (earlier this year), and the Chiefs have given up a 2+ TD game to Trevor Lawrence.
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NFL Christmas Betting Card
- Dak Prescott Longest Completion Under 38.5 yards (-115; bet365)
- Javonte Williams Receptions Ladder (bet365)
- First Turnover Committed: Commanders (+110; DraftKings)
- David Montgomery Over 32.5 Rushing Yards (-110; bet365)
- First Turnover Committed: Vikings (+105; DraftKings)
- Bo Nix Over 13.5 rushing yds
- Bo Nix anytime TD (+425; DraftKings), 2+ TDs (+5000; DraftKings)
- Bo Nix Anytime Touchdown + Chiefs +14.5 parlay (+1100; DraftKings)
