Rams-Seahawks Betting Preview: Seattle Getting No Love as a Home Underdog
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Aaron Donald, Russell Wilson
Betting odds: Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
- Spread: Rams -7.5
- Over/Under: 50.5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- TV channel: FOX
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: With 77% of bets, the Rams are the most popular bet on the board at the time of writing (you can find live numbers here).
Despite the impressive support, books had been reluctant to move LA to -7.5 for much of the week, but late Thursday/early Friday, some books did just that.
Expect some sharps to pounce on the +7.5; that a pretty darn big home dog for a team that isn’t totally incompetent. — Mark Gallant
Trends to know: Home underdogs of seven or more points have gone 137-111-5 (55%) against the spread since 2003, according to Bet Labs. However, there are strong splits in this trend.
From 2003 to 2011, these large home underdogs were 94-68-4 (58%) ATS, but from 2012 to 2018 wagering on such teams has been a 50/50 proposition: 43-43-1 ATS. — John Ewing
This marks the first time in Russell Wilson’s career that he opened as larger than a 4.5-point home underdog, which he did against the Patriots in 2012.
Wilson has never closed above a 3.5-point home dog and only four times in his career has he closed as a 3-point home dog.
Wilson is 4-0 straight up and ATS is those games, covering by 12.5 PPG. — Evan Abrams
The Rams have scored 30+ points in four consecutive games to start the season. In Russell Wilson’s career, Seattle has faced an offense on such a streak twice before:
- Week 13, 2017 vs. Eagles (won, 24-10)
- Week 8, 2017 vs. Texans (won, 41-38) — Evan Abrams
Biggest mismatch: Rams’ offensive line vs Seahawks’ defensive line
I have the Rams rated as the best team in the NFL by a pretty wide margin — four points over the next tier on a neutral field.
The most impressive part of their team this year has been their offensive line, which has potentially been the best in the league to date.
I just don’t know how you stop Sean McVay and Jared Goff if you can’t generate pressure — and I didn’t even mention that they have the best running back in the game right now. Just a scary, scary offense at the moment.
Because of their excellent offensive line play, Goff has had time to throw the ball down the field — which he has done with extreme efficiency.
This is one of the reasons why the Rams lead the NFL in yards per attempt (10.2), while still ranking third overall in completion percentage at 71.9%.
In fact, Goff is 8-of-13 for 322 yards and five touchdowns on passes of more than 20 yards, per PFF. And guess who won’t be roaming on the backend of the Seattle secondary this week? All-Pro safety Earl Thomas, who has as many interceptions as catches allowed this season.
Expect the Rams to continue to hit some explosive plays through the air against what now looks like the Legion of Doomed — and it all starts up front.
And I won’t even get into the Rams defensive line vs. an awful Seattle offensive line. Aaron Donald should eat. The Rams have oodles of skill position talent, but this team dominates in the trenches, which is where football games are won. — Stuckey
Which team is healthier? Rams
The Rams could be without starting tight end Tyler Higbee (knee) and left guard Rodger Saffold (knee), but they’re otherwise set up well on offense and defense entering Sunday. Kicker Greg Zuerlein will miss another week.
The Seahawks are expected to utilize a committee backfield once Chris Carson (hip) returns, but whoever ends up rushing the ball could be without left guard Ethan Pocic (ankle) and right guard D.J. Fluker (knee).
The Seahawks will have to make do without tight end Will Dissly (knee) and Earl Thomas (leg) for the rest of the season.
DFS edge: The Seahawks didn’t waste any time easing Doug Baldwin (knee) back into the lineup in Week 4. He played 76% of the snaps, led the team with seven targets and ran a pass route on 27 of Russell Wilson’s 30 dropbacks.
His $5,000 price tag on DraftKings is $1,200 cheaper than it was at the beginning of the season. Baldwin’s +3.44 Projected Plus/Minus on DraftKings is the fourth-highest mark among receivers. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Seahawks +7.5
This was the first bet I made when lines opened on Sunday night. The three steps I take before deciding to place a wager:
1. I look at the spread and determine if I think there is any edge one way or the other. Often times that comes with public teams being over-inflated on the road (this game gets a check mark for that).
2. I will look at how the market is reacting to these teams. If the favorite is getting a majority of the action, I will tend to fade that side. I rarely trust the public. And, as Evan Abrams pointed out in this piece a couple of weeks ago, this has been a rough year for the public.
3. I will take what I see in the line and the market and do research on the two teams to see if the numbers back up my positions.
In this case, as much as the Seahawks have struggled, their defense still ranks in the top 10 in yards per play allowed and third down conversions (obviously that is something to watch with Earl Thomas and Mychal Kendricks out).
I don’t think it will be as easy for the Rams to build up a huge lead. And even if they do, I like my chances with Russell Wilson to throw open the backdoor. — Chad Millman
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.