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NFL Expert Picks: Vikings-Patriots, Chargers-Steelers, More Week 13 Bets

Dec 02, 2018 9:35 AM EST
  • The Action Network experts break down their favorite Week 13 NFL bets, including Vikings-Patriots and Chargers-Steelers
  • Plus against-the-spread and over/under picks for Rams-Lions, Raiders-Chiefs, Ravens-Falcons and much more.

Our staff has angles on a number of the most highly-anticipated Week 13 matchups, including two intriguing games that likely involve four potential playoff teams:

  • Vikings at Patriots (-5)
  • Chargers at Steelers (-3.5)

In addition to a number of bets (and even a Keenan Allen prop for the Sunday Night Football game), we will cover plenty of other action, including a consensus on Rams-Lions and Chiefs-Raiders. For even more in-depth analysis, check out our betting guides for every single game.

Let’s get into our 15 favorite bets for Week 13, which can hopefully help you find a winner or two you otherwise wouldn’t have spotted. After a bounce back 7-3 last Sunday, our NFL staff picks now sit at 94-94-12 (50%) for the season. Time to finish strong, starting with this weekend.


>> All odds pulled from 5Dimes overnight on Nov. 29, so slight line variations are possible. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.


SUNDAY’S EARLY ACTION

Chad Millman: Lions +10 (vs. Rams)

1 p.m. ET on FOX

Remember my three principles:

1. Look for lines that seem crooked or feel like the bookmakers are daring you to bet them.

2. Check the market. Is the money going in the same direction or the opposite direction of the side you want?

3. Look at the numbers.

This line immediately jumped out at me as being driven by recency bias. On Thanksgiving, the Lions lost to the Bears and didn’t cover as home dogs thanks to Stafford’s pick-six. But they hung in there against a Bears defense that is much better than what they will face with the Rams.

Still, thanks to a loss and the fact the Rams are, well, the Rams, the Lions opened as big home dogs. The public betting market is taking the bait, with 80% of the tickets coming in on Los Angeles. But the Rams defense is, well, not very good. Especially against Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks, a category that Matt Stafford fits into.

Now I’ve got all three levels of my principles working in my favor. Go Lions.

Travis Reed: Lions +10 (vs. Rams)

1 p.m. ET on FOX

It’s that point in the season where we know which teams are good (Rams) and which teams are bad (Stafford just threw another interception). This is the time of year where you know you are taking bad teams, but you are hoping to get them at good numbers. I believe the Lions getting 10 points at home is too good of a number to pass up.

Sean Koerner’s power ratings have this at a touchdown spread and my model simulations have it around Detroit +5. I’ll take the value and begrudgingly bet on the Lions is this mismatch

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OPEN
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# BETS
56.5
-3.5
53.5
-3.5
-6.5
42.5
-6
41.5
44.5
-4
45.5
-3
44
-3
43.5
-2.5
47.5
-8.5
46.5
-7.5
46.5
-5
45
-6
38
PK
39
-2.5
46.5
-3.5
46
-2.5
44
-9
44
-9
44
-9.5
44.5
-7
47
-3
47
-3
36
-8.5
36
-7
-5.5
44.5
-4
44
-1
52.5
-2
52
54
-9.5
52.5
-10.5
-7
54
-6
51.5

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