NFL Expert Picks: Vikings-Patriots, Chargers-Steelers, More Week 13 Bets

Our staff has angles on a number of the most highly-anticipated Week 13 matchups, including two intriguing games that likely involve four potential playoff teams:

• Vikings at Patriots (-5)
• Chargers at Steelers (-3.5)

In addition to a number of bets (and even a Keenan Allen prop for the Sunday Night Football game), we will cover plenty of other action, including a consensus on Rams-Lions and Chiefs-Raiders. For even more in-depth analysis, check out our betting guides for every single game.

Let's get into our 15 favorite bets for Week 13, which can hopefully help you find a winner or two you otherwise wouldn't have spotted. After a bounce back 7-3 last Sunday, our NFL staff picks now sit at 94-94-12 (50%) for the season. Time to finish strong, starting with this weekend.

>> All odds pulled overnight on Nov. 29, so slight line variations are possible. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets.

SUNDAY'S EARLY ACTION

Chad Millman: Lions +10 (vs. Rams)

1 p.m. ET on FOX

Remember my three principles:

1. Look for lines that seem crooked or feel like the bookmakers are daring you to bet them.

2. Check the market. Is the money going in the same direction or the opposite direction of the side you want?

3. Look at the numbers.

This line immediately jumped out at me as being driven by recency bias. On Thanksgiving, the Lions lost to the Bears and didn’t cover as home dogs thanks to Stafford’s pick-six. But they hung in there against a Bears defense that is much better than what they will face with the Rams.

Still, thanks to a loss and the fact the Rams are, well, the Rams, the Lions opened as big home dogs. The public betting market is taking the bait, with 80% of the tickets coming in on Los Angeles. But the Rams defense is, well, not very good. Especially against Pro Bowl-caliber quarterbacks, a category that Matt Stafford fits into.

Now I’ve got all three levels of my principles working in my favor. Go Lions.

Travis Reed: Lions +10 (vs. Rams)

1 p.m. ET on FOX

It’s that point in the season where we know which teams are good (Rams) and which teams are bad (Stafford just threw another interception). This is the time of year where you know you are taking bad teams, but you are hoping to get them at good numbers. I believe the Lions getting 10 points at home is too good of a number to pass up.

Sean Koerner’s power ratings have this at a touchdown spread and my model simulations have it around Detroit +5. I’ll take the value and begrudgingly bet on the Lions is this mismatch

Chris Raybon: Panthers-Bucs Under 54.5

1 p.m. ET on FOX

This will be a windy game between divisional opponents and that's a good thing for under bettors.

Tampa Bay’s league-worst 29 turnovers are a huge outlier and bound to regress to the mean. Turnovers tend to inflate scoring more often than not — touchdown returns, short fields, etc.

Oddsmakers are setting these lines as if the Buccaneers will maintain their historic turnover rate, but we saw last week what happens when they play a game more within the normal range of outcomes in regard to turnovers: Their 27-9 victory over the 49ers went under the closing total by nearly 20 points.

Mark Gallant: Panthers-Bucs Under 54.5

1 p.m. ET on FOX

I like late season divisional unders. I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again… I said it before it was even cool to say it. The higher the total, the better, too.

Between Weeks 9 and 16, divisional unders of 50 or higher have gone 41-18-1 since 2003, which is nearly a 70% clip. They’ve also gone under by an average of nearly five points. With these teams and coaches familiar with one another, the defense has had the upper hand.

And as Chris mentioned above, it's supposed to be windy. There have been just two divisional games with 10-plus mph winds and totals at or above 50 this late in the year, but if you drop the over/under down to at least 45, the sample size increases to 28 games. And in those 28 games that fit those criteria, the under is 24-4.

Ken Barkley: Browns +6 (at Texans)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

The Texans are the hottest thing going. They haven’t lost a game in about two months and just ran all over the Titans in front of a national TV audience on Monday night.

Meanwhile, in addition to snubbing his former coach, Baker Mayfield and the Browns have actually played much better recently, beating the Falcons and Bengals over the past two weeks.

Despite the Texans' gaudy record and winning streak, they STILL don't really have an impressive win of the bunch. Almost all the teams they beat are sub-.500 or close, and the Redskins lost Alex Smith during their meeting with the Texans. 

Houston's most impressive victory thus far, came on Monday night against a 5-6 Titans team, so I’m still not convinced the Texans are this good. I think the difference between these teams is a little smaller than the market implies here.

I’ll  gulp take Cleveland on the road.

Stuckey: Ravens +2 (at Falcons)

1 p.m. ET on CBS

The Falcons rank 31st in rush defense DVOA entering Week 13 and are one of four teams to allow five or more yards per carry (Chiefs, Rams, Seahawks).

Per Football Outsiders, the Ravens’ offensive line ranks second in Power Rank, which measures success in short-yardage situations on the ground.

The Ravens’ solid run-blocking offensive line should push around a Falcons D-line that ranks 22nd in that same category and 31st overall against the run, as measured by adjusted line yards.

While you may look at Baltimore’s season rushing numbers and be less than impressed (4.1 yards per carry ranks 26th in the NFL), this is obviously a completely different Ravens rushing offense since Lamar Jackson took over as the starter and undrafted rookie running back Gus Edwards emerged.

In Jackson’s two starts, the Ravens have rushed the ball an astonishing 96 times for 509 yards — that’s an average of 5.3 yards per rush, which is what the Panthers lead the league with.

Yes, those came against two poor run defenses (Raiders and Bengals), but the Falcons have an even worse run defense. Look out for Jackson’s speed on the turf.

I also think Jackson can have some success when he does need to throw, primarily because he will have time behind an offensive line that ranks fifth in adjusted sack rate.

That unit will take on a Falcons defensive line that rarely generates any pressure, ranking 27th in that same category. Jackson has a long way to go in his development as a passer, but he can still make some throws if given time.

On the other side of the ball, the Ravens also have the personnel in the secondary to match up with the plethora of receiving options Ryan has at his disposal. The Ravens bring a top-five pass defense to Atlanta and their physical corners will go a long way in this one.

Add in a special teams advantage, which the Ravens have over most teams, and I ultimately think Lamar Jackson moves to 3-0 as a starter (a lot of that will have to do with the three favorable matchups he has drawn in his three starts).

SUNDAY'S LATE AFTERNOON ACTION

Sean Koerner: Raiders +14.5 (vs. Chiefs)

4:05 p.m. ET on CBS

The Chiefs have only been double-digit favorites one other time this season. That was Week 11 at home against the Cardinals, when Kansas City was a 15.5-point favorite. We saw them ease off the gas a bit and coast to a 26-14 victory, failing to cover.

We have to always remember that a team is simply trying to win, not trying to cover the spread.

On the flip side, we saw the Raiders beat that very Cardinals team the following week in Arizona.

The Raiders are a very bad football team, but I can see them sneaking in a backdoor cover here as the Chiefs play bend-don't-break defense toward the end of the game.

John Ewing: Raiders +14.5 (vs. Chiefs)

4:05 p.m. ET on CBS

The public loves the Chiefs this Sunday, as more than 70% of spread tickets are on the Chiefs. Kansas City ranks second in the league in scoring average at 36.7 points per game, while Oakland ranks 30th (17 PPG). The Chiefs are 8-2-1 ATS and the Raiders are 3-8 ATS. So, of course a majority of bettors are going to wager on Kansas City.

But here's the thing, the Chiefs are overvalued. For starters, The Action Network NFL simulations have Mahomes & Co. winning by 10.6 points on average. Plus, history has not been on the side of large road favorites.

Sure, favorites of 10 or more points on the road have gone 4-0 ATS in 2018. However, from 2003 to 2017, double-digit road favorites went 28-45 ATS (38.4%). Regression is coming.

Finally, bad ATS teams (covering fewer than 30% of their games) have been profitable bets against good ATS teams (covering 60% or more). From Week 6 on in the season when two such teams meet, like Raiders-Chiefs, the bad ATS teams have gone 119-66-4 (64%) ATS since 2003.

Danny Donahue: Raiders +14.5 (vs. Chiefs)

4:05 p.m. ET on CBS

I’ll piggy-back off John here with a slightly different system.

Aside from the spread being about 10 points higher, this game sets up similarly to the Steelers-Jags matchup from a couple weekends ago. Kansas City is rolling, holding an average cover margin of at least five points in a post-Week 9 game (6.7).

On the other hand, Oakland finds itself in the exact opposite situation (like Jacksonville), with a cover margin of negative five points or more (-8.1).

Each spot on its own has historically offered an opportunity for profit, but when the two come together in the same game, that profit has skyrocketed. Since 2005, the struggling side in this matchup has gone 41-12-2 (77%) ATS — for a 46.5% return on investment according to our Bet Labs data.

Collin Wilson: 49ers +10 (at Seahawks)

4:25 p.m. ET on FOX

Coming off a tough victory all the way in Carolina, the Seahawks return home against a 49ers team that ranks fourth in adjusted net yards per play at +0.7. The Seahawks are -0.6 in the same category, indicating this point spread is a touch too high.

There shouldn't be much support for San Francisco in this spot, as the Niners have only covered once in their past 10 tries at Century Link. This game will be also played again in just two weeks in Santa Clara.

With a Monday Night Football date against the Vikings in Week 14, it wouldn't be a shock to see the Seahawks have a letdown week.

Finally, Seattle’s offensive line continues to have issues protecting Wilson, ranking 29th in adjusted sack rate. That should be enough for San Francisco to keep it close.

Ian Hartitz: Patriots-Vikings Over 49

4:25 p.m. ET on FOX

31, 43, 38, 38, 27, 24, 36, 26, 37, 35.

Those are the Patriots’ points scored in their past 10 home games. December weather in Foxborough might not be advantageous to every offense, but the Patriots’ suddenly healthy unit has continued to rack up points in the friendly confines of Gillette Stadium.

Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins and the Vikings have scored at least 20 points in every game this season except for that strange Week 3 matchup against the Bills when Minnesota lost by 21 points at home.

This projects to be the week's fastest matchup in combined situation neutral pace, so I’ll take the over and bet on Cousins and Brady to consistently find ways to move the ball up-and-down the field.

Scott Miller:Patriots-Vikings Over 49

4:25 p.m. ET on FOX

Totally agree with all of Ian’s points. The pace of these two offenses is a huge factor in this wager.

The perception of Minnesota’s defense is the only thing keeping this number below 50, but the Vikings have two very key weaknesses in the passing game: defending tight ends (27th in DVOA) and running backs (29th in DVOA).

Expect for Gronk and James White to both have big games and for this to turn into a shootout in a hurry.

Matt LaMarca: Patriots -5 (vs. Vikings)

4:25 p.m. ET on FOX

Betting the Patriots as a home favorite of seven points or fewer has basically been a license to print money during the Tom Brady era. He’s gone 35-10-5 ATS since 2003, good for a whopping 42.0% return on investment.

Good quarterbacks win, but great quarterbacks cover. And Brady is undoubtedly a great quarterback in this situation.

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

Matthew Freedman: Chargers-Steelers Over 51

8:20 p.m. ET on NBC

I know I'm on the donkey side of this bet. I don't care.

As of writing, 76% percent of tickets and 91% of money are on the over, but the total has dropped by a point. This reverse line movement suggests that sharps are on the under.

Even so, I'm drawn to the Steelers home over like a moth to a tiki torch.

In the "Antonio Brown is a perennial All-Pro wide receiver" era (since 2014), the Steelers have an over/under record of 21-10-0 in Roethlisberger's home starts with an outrageous cover margin of 7.1 points. That’s good for a 31.5% return on investment (per our data at Bet Labs).

And the over has been even more exploitable when the Steelers have faced teams unfamiliar with them. Since 2014, the Steelers have a home over/under record of 15-6 against non-divisional opponents with a margin of 8.6 points. That comes out to a 38.5% ROI.

In prime time with both teams needing wins to solidify their playoff seedings, I expect points to be scored.

Evan Abrams: Keenan Allen Scores TD (+130)

8:20 p.m. ET on NBC

After the Chargers loss to the Broncos, the Bolts' offense got its groove back last week against a stellar Cardinals pass defense DVOA that ranks 10th overall, ninth against the pass and sixth against the deep pass. In that game, Keenan Allen finished with seven catches on seven targets and scored a touchdown for the third consecutive game.

Many will look at the absence of running back Melvin Gordon as a huge loss in the running game, but it's the passing game that will really miss him. Over the full season, Allen leads the Chargers with 94 targets. That's 34 more than Gordon and 52 ahead of the next WR, Tyrell Williams.

Over the past four weeks, Allen has 38 targets, 28 receptions, 342 yards and three touchdowns, while Gordon has the second-most with 18 targets and 14 receptions.

Gordon also leads the Chargers in red-zone targets with 13, with Keenan Allen right behind him with 11. All the signs lead to Allen having the opportunities to score in a game where the Chargers will need timely points.

Allen has also excelled in prime time, scoring five touchdowns in six games, including 40 total targets in his past four night games — all with Philip Rivers under center on the road.

At home, the Steelers defense has been beatable, too. They have allowed 25 passing touchdowns in their past 12 home games, including a whopping 8.0 yards per attempt.

If the Chargers trail at the half, they should be able to crawl back; Rivers is 50-29-4 (63.3%) against the second half spread in his career when trailing at the half, including a 32-16-4 (66.7%) mark on the road.

I think there is value in Allen to score at plus money.

Editor’s note: The opinions on these games are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.