- Using The Action Network's NFL Power Ratings, we look at the teams the public are overrating and underrating in Week 9.
- Comparing our Power Ratings to current point spreads reveals the biggest differences in the perception of the betting market to real value.
It is only Tuesday, but we are already seeing significant line movement across the Week 9 slate with at least a one-half point line move in 11 of the 13 NFL games.
By comparing the projected point spread created using The Action Network’s NFL Power Rankings to the consensus number, we can determine which teams the public is overrating and underrating in Week 9.
Overrated Week 9 Teams
Seattle Seahawks vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- NFL Power Rating spread: -0.4
- Current Spread: -2
- Value on: Chargers
- Time: Nov. 4, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
The Seahawks have quietly won four of their last five games after losing two in a row to start the season.
The defense is allowing 18.7 points per game (4th in the NFL), and Russell Wilson has been extremely efficient with a 4-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio and 112.8 passer rating.
But the Chargers are legit Super Bowl contenders with their only losses coming against the Chiefs and Rams –two of the best teams in football.
Look for Philip Rivers, Melvin Gordon (questionable, hamstring) and the rest of the Chargers offense to test the Seahawks defense in a game the power ratings mark as a coin flip.
Denver Broncos vs. Houston Texans
- NFL Power Rating spread: -0.6
- Current Spread: -2
- Value on: Texans
- Time: No. 4, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)
Hue Jackson went 13-27 against the spread (ATS) during his time in Cleveland. Now that Jackson is no longer coaching the Browns, the worst coach ATS in the NFL is … Vance Joseph.
Among current head coaches, Joseph has the worst ATS winning percentage. Betting a team with an inflated line and a coach that routinely underperforms is a good way to go broke.
Underrated Week 9 Teams
Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions
- NFL Power Rating spread: -5.5
- Current Spread: -4
- Value on: Vikings
- Time: Nov. 4, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)
With less than a minute to play in the first half of Sunday Night Football and the Vikings leading 13-10, Adam Thielen fumbled at the Saints’ 14-yard line.
New Orleans returned the fumble to the Minnesota 33-yard line and scored two plays later. The Saints went into halftime up, 17-13, but could have easily been down, 20-10.
The Vikings never recovered and lost, 30-20, to the Saints. How different might this line be if that sequence of events goes in Minnesota’s favor?
Bettors are influenced by what happened the previous week. Gamblers are likely remembering the Vikes’ shortcomings against the Saints but not considering how easily the game could have swung toward Kirk Cousins & Co.
New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers
- NFL Power Rating spread: -7
- Current Spread: -5.5
- Value on: Patriots
- Time: Nov. 4, 8:20 p.m. ET (NBC)
After outplaying the Rams in the first half, the Packers trailed by double digits in the third quarter but Todd Gurley decided not to score a touchdown late, which gave the Cheeseheads the cover.
Green Bay opened as a 7-point underdog in New England, but the line quickly moved to Patriots -5.5. Aaron Rodgers is now 3-0 ATS when getting seven or more points thanks to Gurley’s decision, but the underlying numbers make the Pats a clear favorite at home.