Koerner’s NFL Power Ratings: Projecting Week 6 Spreads & Over/Unders to Find the Best Bets

Oct 10, 2019 11:20 AM EDT
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Jared Goff, Aaron Rodgers, Case Keenum

  • Sean Koerner projects spreads and over/unders for every Week 6 NFL game using his power ratings.
  • He uses these power ratings -- and analysis -- to recommend the best pregame and live bets.

We’ve got two double-digit favorites. A matchup between one actively tanking team and one that just fired its head coach. And another London game.

Like every week, I’ll use projected spreads and over/unders to identify the best bets for Week 6. I’ve also added one new feature: My projected final scores.

Now let’s run through every matchup and identify my favorite picks (including one in-game bet I’m looking to make).


Odds as of Wednesday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


Giants at Patriots

Current odds: Patriots -17; 40.5
My Projections: Patriots -17; 43

Thursday Night Football

This is the fourth time this season the Patriots are favored by more than two touchdowns. So far, they’re 2-1 against the spread in this spot.

Sportsbooks are surely going to be rooting for the Giants to cover, but those prospects got tougher when Saquon Barkley, Wayne Gallman, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram were ruled out — a cluster of injuries that can impact the spread quite a bit. However, a spread as high as -17 is a harder to move off of because it hinges more on how much mercy the Patriots will have in the second half, which can cause a backdoor cover.

These aren’t the type of bets I like to take part in — we saw this very effect in Week 3 when Jarrett Stidham came in relief of Tom Brady and threw a pick-six that allowed the Jets to backdoor cover.

After opening at 46.5, this total has fallen all the way to 41 due to windy and potentially wet conditions.

Editor’s note: Koerner initially liked the over, but this blurb has since been updated to reflect the weather.

My Projected Point Totals: Patriots 30, Giants 13

Panthers vs. Buccaneers

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