Week 6 NFL Pick ‘Em Rankings: Straight-Up & ATS Picks

Week 6 NFL Pick ‘Em Rankings: Straight-Up & ATS Picks article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Emmons-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Aaron Rodgers

  • What are the best Week 6 NFL picks to make for your straight-up and against-the-spread pick 'em pools?
  • Sean Koerner's proprietary model offers analyzes the best way to approach each pool type to give you the best chance to win.
  • We've also added a spreadsheet into which you can input your own odds to return personalized confidence ratings.

Whether you’re playing pick’em in our app or going old school with your co-workers, you can follow my straight-up and against-the-spread pick ’em confidence ratings throughout the season for the best options each week.

Let’s quickly run through my methodology, then dig into my ratings for Week 6 complete with a downloadable spreadsheet you can use to generate custom ratings if your pool is using different odds than what we have here.


Odds as of Tuesday and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).


NFL Pick ‘Em Confidence Ratings Methodology

These confidence ratings are based on my NFL power ratings.

To calculate my power ratings each week, I factor in home-field advantage, travel, injuries, personnel changes and any news that could impact odds to come up with what I feel the “true” odds are for every matchup.

In theory, sportsbooks’ lines should be fairly close. But we can use any differences to exploit the best SU and ATS picks (or know when to avoid certain teams/games).

Now let’s start with my straight-up ratings for Week 6 then wrap it up with ATS.


Go To: Full SU Ratings | Custom ATS Ratings


Straight-Up Confidence Ratings

1. Patriots

Matchup: Giants
Confidence Rating: 93%

2. Ravens

Matchup: Bengals
Confidence Rating: 83.1%

3. Chargers

Matchup: Steelers
Confidence Rating: 74.3%

4. Cowboys

Matchup: Jets
Confidence Rating: 72.9%

5. Chiefs

Matchup: Texans
Confidence Rating: 69.9%

6. Packers

Matchup: Lions
Confidence Rating: 68.4%

T-7. Vikings

Matchup: Eagles
Confidence Rating: 62%

T-7. Redskins

Matchup: Dolphins
Confidence Rating: 62%

9. Rams

Matchup: 49ers
Confidence Rating: 60.3%

10. Broncos

Matchup: Titans
Confidence Rating: 56.9%

T-11. Panthers

Matchup: Buccaneers
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

T-11. Falcons

Matchup: Cardinals
Confidence Rating: 55.2%

fantasy-football-rankings-flex-week 6-2019
Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Julio Jones

T-13. Seahawks

Matchup: Browns
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

T-13. Jaguars

Matchup: Saints
Confidence Rating: 51.7%

T-15. Saints

Matchup: Jaguars
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

T-15. Browns

Matchup: Seahawks
Confidence Rating: 48.3%

T-17. Cardinals

Matchup: Falcons
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

T-17. Buccaneers

Matchup: Panthers
Confidence Rating: 44.8%

19. Titans

Matchup: Broncos
Confidence Rating: 43.1%

20. 49ers

Matchup: Rams
Confidence Rating: 39.7%

T-21. Eagles

Matchup: Vikings
Confidence Rating: 38%

T-21. Dolphins

Matchup: Redskins
Confidence Rating: 38%

23. Lions

Matchup: Packers
Confidence Rating: 31.6%

24. Texans

Matchup: Chiefs
Confidence Rating: 30.1%

25. Jets

Matchup: Cowboys
Confidence Rating: 27.1%

26. Steelers

Matchup: Chargers
Confidence Rating: 25.7%

27. Bengals

Matchup: Ravens
Confidence Rating: 16.9%

28. Giants

Matchup: Patriots
Confidence Rating: 7%


Full Straight Up Confidence Ratings


Against the Spread Confidence Ratings

I’ve outlined my confidence ratings for the odds available at PointsBet as of writing on Tuesday, but you can also download my spreadsheet at the end of this story to generate confidence ratings based on the spreads your league is using.

T-1. Chiefs

Spread: -4.5
Opponent: Texans

T-1. Browns

Spread: +2
Opponent: Seahawks

T-1. Packers

Spread: -4
Opponent: Lions

T-4. 49ers

Spread: +4
Opponent: Rams

browns vs. 49ers-sharp-betting-odds-picks-monday-night-football
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jimmy Garoppolo

T-4. Saints

Spread: +1.5
Opponent: Jaguars

T-4. Cardinals

Spread: +2.5
Opponent: Falcons

T-4. Bengals

Spread: +12
Opponent: Ravens

T-8. Vikings

Spread: -3
Opponent: Eagles

T-8. Chargers

Spread: -7
Opponent: Steelers

T-8. Buccaneers

Spread: +2
Opponent: Panthers

T-11. Redskins

Spread: -3.5
Opponent: Dolphins

T-11. Patriots

Spread: -17
Opponent: Giants

T-11. Cowboys

Spread: -7
Opponent: Jets

T-11. Titans

Spread: +2
Opponent: Broncos

T-11. Broncos

Spread: -2
Opponent: Titans

T-11. Jets

Spread: +7
Opponent: Cowboys

T-11. Giants

Spread: +17
Opponent: Patriots

T-11. Dolphins

Spread: +3.5
Opponent: Redskins

T-19. Panthers

Spread: -2
Opponent: Buccaneers

T-19. Steelers

Spread: +7
Opponent: Chargers

T-19. Eagles

Spread: +3
Opponent: Vikings

T-22. Ravens

Spread: -12
Opponent: Bengals

T-22. Falcons

Spread: -2.5
Opponent: Cardinals

T-22. Jaguars

Spread: -1.5
Opponent: Saints

T-22. Rams

Spread: -4
Opponent: 49ers

T-26. Lions

Spread: +4
Opponent: Packers

T-26. Seahawks

Spread: -2
Opponent: Browns

T-26. Texans

Spread: +4.5
Opponent: Chiefs


Custom Confidence Ratings

Your league might be using different odds, in which case, you’ll want to click this link to download my customizable spreadsheet and plug in the right odds.

Note that you’ll want to make sure to add the “-” in front of the spread for the favored team but nothing in front of the underdog in Columns E and F. The confidence ratings will then autogenerate in Column M.

Here’s an example of what the sheet looks like:

How would you rate this article?