The Rams went 10-7 and made the playoffs last year despite playing with the lead only 27% of the time (6th lowest). As 5.5-point favorites here, I project them to play with the lead at a rate about 23% higher than last season. That sets up a rare positive game script where Kyren’s volume should spike. The matchup also lines up perfectly with his rushing profile. Williams ran inside on 83% of his carries in Week 1 (2nd highest among RBs). Tennessee has struggled to stop inside runs, allowing the 3rd-highest rushing yards over expected per attempt last season and the 2nd-highest in Week 1. Now they’ll be without nose tackle T’Vondre Sweat (team-best 2% missed tackle rate last season). His replacement, fellow NT Shy Tuttle, was a liability for Carolina’s run defense last season. Both players are central to stopping inside runs, which makes this a smash spot for Kyren. I project his median closer to 80.5 yards, with about a 62% chance he clears 72.5.

Kyren Williams over 18.5 rush att (-108 at DK) Had 18 last week on just 57 total plays for the Rams Should have... 1. More time of possession than last week given they face the Titans who struggled to control the ball in Week 1 with rookie QB Cam Ward 2. Better game script as heavier favorites than last week DEN RBs combined for 24 rush att on 71 plays last week vs. TEN Has averaged 20.8 rush att in 16 Rams wins since returning from injury in 2023 Projecting closer to 20.5 totes for Kyren here

Since start of 2024 Kyren has scored a TD in 13 of 19 games All 13 of those times he scored the Rams first TD of the game