Titans-Bills Betting Preview: Is Tennessee Primed for a Letdown?
USA Today Sports. Pictured: Marcus Mariota
Betting odds: Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
- Spread: Titans -5
- Over/Under: 39.5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: CBS
>> All odds as of Friday morning. Download The Action Network App to get real-time NFL odds and track your bets
Betting market: When the Bills were only getting 3.5 points, every bettor was naturally fading them. Well, not every bettor, but 70% of them.
I guess this is a “what have you done for me lately” type of deal, as memories of Buffalo’s annihilation of Minnesota have quickly been replaced by their shutout at the hands of the Packers. The line has since moved to Bills +5 (see live betting data here). —Mark Gallant
Trends to know: The Titans have now won three consecutive games all as underdogs, including their last win with Marcus Mariota back under center.
Mariota is 9-11 straight up and 5-14-1 against the spread the week after an outright win, failing to cover the spread by more than a TD per game.
Since Mariota was drafted by the Titans in 2015, no QB has been worse ATS off a SU win. — Evan Abrams
Not only can you sell the Titans high after three straight wins as underdogs, you can also buy the Bills low after getting shutout on the road in Green Bay.
Per BetLabs, since 2003, home dogs coming off a game when they scored three points or fewer have gone 44-26-2 (62.9%) ATS for an impressive 21.5% ROI.
This is just a flat out awful situational spot for the Titans. They must find a way to get up for the Bills in Orchard Park after upset wins over Jacksonville and Philly before a date with the Ravens in Week 6. — Stuckey
Nobody believes in the Bills, who followed their shocking upset of the Vikings with a 22-0 loss against the Packers. At the time of writing, more than 70% of spread tickets are backing the Titans as road favorites.
However, since 2003, teams getting little public support (less than 30% of bets) after a bad offensive game (less than 10 points scored) have gone 146-91-4 ATS.
Don’t discount Buffalo as a home underdog. — John Ewing
Biggest mismatch: Bills’ offensive line vs. Titans’ pass-rush
Josh Allen could be in for a long day as the Bills offensive line ranks 32nd in Football Outsiders’ adjusted sack rate faces a Titans defensive line that ranks 10th in the same metric.
The Titans have done a tremendous job of getting to the quarterback, generating 36 quarterback hits (per Sports Info Solutions) through four games, which is the sixth-highest mark in the league.
When faced with pressure this season, Allen has a laughable 17.2% completion rate, 3.5 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 13.0. — Justin Bailey
Which team is healthier? Bills
The Bills are relatively healthy on both sides of the ball, as only safety Micah Hyde (groin), slot corner Rafael Bush (shoulder) and tight end Charles Clay (ankle) appear to be at risk of missing the game.
The Titans are a tad more banged up, with Corey Davis (illness) practicing in a limited fashion Wednesday, while linebacker Wesley Woodyard (shoulder) and safety Kenny Vaccaro (elbow) opened the week with a DNP.
DFS edge: Davis doesn’t have an ideal matchup on Sunday, in a potential shadow spot against Bills CB Tre’Davious White. However, Davis could be worth a look in tournaments as a contrarian option considering he is projected for just 5-8% ownership and he owns an absurd 32% of the Titans’ target share.
The volume is encouraging, but the matchup is not. Davis presently sports an 88% Leverage Rating on DraftKings, a percentile based score that weighs projected ownership and projected ceiling. — Justin Bailey
Bet to watch: Titans -5
I didn’t understand this opening line at all and I agree with the line movement here. I bet it at -3 and then bet it again at -3.5.
I normally hate siding with the public and a majority of the bets are on the road favorite, but I think the Titans should be a touchdown favorite so I’ll begrudgingly swallow the points. — Travis Reed
Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.